Month: February 2016

Bob’s Final 2016 Broncos Offseason Plan

As we approach the final weeks until the 2016 NFL season begins and free agency gets underway, I am rolling out my final offseason plan for the Denver Broncos.

The steps that I will list first are what I would do, not necessarily what will happen. When I first started putting together my plan, I underestimated what Derek Wolfe would get and what the market would be like for certain players. Now that more information is available, I have what I believe is a more workable plan that may get closer to what the Broncos will ultimately do.

After I roll out my plan, I will consider alternatives to certain steps I’ve taken, but each alternative means you have to do something different, whether it’s filling a positional need elsewhere or having to make a corresponding move to get under the cap.

With that in mind, here’s what I would do. The moves assume Over the Cap’s estimate of a $154.3M cap for the Broncos holds up. Again, if you wish to experiment with the salary cap, OTC’s cap calculator for the Broncos is here.
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Re-Visiting Contracts For Broncos’ Top Pending Free Agents

Trying to figure out exactly what type of contract a pending free agent will get can be a tricky exercise. Spotrac attempts to do this by looking at the expected market for key free agents, but what the market is that for the player could be lower than what the player actually receives. Jason Fitzgerald has suggested agents should ask for 20 percent more than what comparable players are getting, but that does not mean the player will get that amount.

I do believe, though, that the rules of thumb that Spotrac and Jason provide can be useful in figuring out what the most likely contracts will be, in terms of average salary per year. We can do this by remembering a few things about contract negotiations.

* Players and their agents will always start by asking for more than they believe they will actually get.
* Good teams will make initial offers that are at or slightly below what they expect the market value of the player to be.
* Some positions will hold a higher market value than others because that position is in demand.
* The market value for a player could be lower than expected because comparable players who signed previous contracts didn’t perform at an expected level.
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Pre-Combine First Round Draft Board

Draft season is heating up, and since there’s little else to discuss I’ve decided to share my Pre-Combine First Round Draft Board for the Broncos. I must emphasize it is VERY early in the draft preparation process, so many of the names I provide today will likely drop off the first round board by April 28th, and many new names will be added. In addition to the Scouting Combine there will be countless individual workouts and pre-draft visits that will impact prospects’ grades before the draft. Moreover, teams will use Free Agency to fill many of their immediate needs, which will also have a huge impact on their respective draft boards.  Continue reading Pre-Combine First Round Draft Board

How Does The 2015 Denver D Really Measure Up Historically?

In the aftermath of the Denver Broncos’ Super Bowl 50 win, the question that some may debate is where the Broncos defense stands among the greatest defenses of all time.

Some will point to the 1985 Chicago Bears, who dominated their opposition in the playoffs, including two shutouts in the NFC divisional round and championship. Others will tout the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, who had mediocre-at-best quarterback play from not one, but two QBs. There will be those who put the 2013 Seattle Seahawks up there, given how they held the Denver Broncos to eight points in the Super Bowl. And some will talk up the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whose defense arguably set the tone for that Super Bowl win.

In examining which defense really stood out as the best, many will roll out, for example, how many sacks that defense racked up during the season. But that’s not really the best measure because it doesn’t paint the entire picture. Let’s look at some of the stats that get tossed out.
Continue reading How Does The 2015 Denver D Really Measure Up Historically?