Below is a ranking of the possible starting 2016 quarterbacks in terms of probability and viability. So here we go and remember, the opinions of John Elway and Gary Kubiak will be the only ones that ultimately count:
1) Brock Osweiler: He is the best choice for continuity, team chemistry and potential upside. A second year in the offense and better timing with receivers make improvement in 2016 likely. Probability 65%
2) Colin Kaepernick or Robert Griffin III: High upside but also high risk. However, quarterbacks with running ability are good fits for a defense and running game focused team. If one of them returns to form and can be then extended to a long term deal it is a home run of 2012 Peyton Manning proportion. Probability 10% combined
3) Sam Bradford: Safe and competent but little upside. Probability 10%
4) Peyton Manning: If the money can be worked out, probably a better option than anything below. Probability 5%
5) Nick Foles or a QB from the journeyman circuit: Things are looking grim now. This is probably what people recommending the “keep the defense together and go cheap at QB” strategy are thinking. The problem is you are probably only saving $2-3M over the higher options and significantly increasing the chances of a season ending QB meltdown like the Jets and Texans experienced. Probability 5%
6) Trevor Siemian: At least he is healthy and will have had a year to learn the offense. However, he would likely be a bottom 10 ranking starting QB. Probability 2%
7) John Elway: He probably does not have much left in the tank but at least he knows the offense and his staff could handle in season GM duties. He would be ranked lower but he will always be #7. Probability <0%
8) A rookie draft pick: Any rookie the Broncos have a shot at would probably be worse in 2016 than Siemian. Probability 2%
9) Scott Tolzien: He is the embodiment of the worst case scenario but at least he comes from a WCO and has probably been well coached. Probability 1%
10) Owen Daniels: He is the Broncos emergency QB and we are now in the emergency zone. Probability 0%
11) Tim Tebow: Sources say his new QB tutor has finally fixed in mechanics. Probability 0%