On older QBs and their decline

This is an analysis of the age-related decline of older quarterbacks. To analyse this, I originally thought I’d plot a series of points for each QB, showing passer rating vs. passing yards. Then we could see how they progressed in terms of both quantity and quality. However, the graph got very messy after only a few players, as shown. (Peyton Manning is the dark blue line.)

Old QB.0

Continue reading On older QBs and their decline

Midweek Musings: Broncos-Patriots Isn’t About You-Know-What-Matchup

All week long, you’re likely to spend your time hearing talk about the upcoming AFC championship game between the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots as if it boiled down to a one-on-one matchup or one factor being responsible for whatever the outcome will be.

Julian Edelman’s return means a Patriots win! Chris Harris’ shoulder injury means the Broncos secondary is in trouble! Patriots O-line figured out how to stop the pass rush last week! Every dropped pass is Peyton Manning’s decline! And the one you will hear more than any other, BRADY VS. MANNING FOR THE FINAL TIME, THERE WILL NEVER BE ANOTHER GREAT QB RIVALRY!

That’s just a short list, of course, but my larger point is that you can’t really fit this conference title matchup into a neat little box with just a couple of factoids and trivia tidbits that explain everything about what will happen. We know that football is a complex sport and, while every sports reporter wants to boil a game down to one single play (I should know, I’m a sports reporter in real life), multiple factors play into the outcome.
Continue reading Midweek Musings: Broncos-Patriots Isn’t About You-Know-What-Matchup

Bolden’s Season Over; Harris’ Shoulder Still Hurt

The first bit of news was already mentioned elsewhere, but here it is.

Tough blow, especially after Bolden had a great punt return to start his day. One would suspect somebody gets moved up from the practice squad and Shiloh Keo will be active for special teams against New England.

Kubiak expects Harris to play Sunday, but he will be limited.

The real key, though, is for the Broncos to get the pass rush going and keep those players healthy. The Patriots facing the Chiefs with Justin Houston limited to eight snaps and Tamba Hali not at full strength is one thing, but if the Broncos can keep their defensive front seven intact throughout the game, it could help counter what ails Harris.

Of course, it’s also worth crossing our fingers that the Broncos don’t lose any more defensive backs to injury.

Broncos Extend Derek Wolfe For Four Years

Well, that’s one thing the Broncos can cross off their to-do list for the offseason.

And to think I was spending my time this afternoon tinkering with my offseason game plan for the Broncos. Mind you, though, that’s a good thing in this case.

UPDATE: Ian Rapoport has the contract’s total sum and some details on the breakdown. More information should be coming as to what are the full guarantees, injury-only guarantees and signing bonus.

ADDENDUM, 9 PM MT (Nick): Using Mike Klis’s report as a source, the contract breakdown for Wolfe should be something close to this:

Base Salary Prorated Bonus Roster Bonus Workout Bonus Cap
Number
Cap
Savings (pre-June 1 cut)
2016 $4,500,000* $1,875,000* $500,000 $50,000 $6,925,000 ($5,075,000)
2017 $5,500,000^ $1,875,000* $500,000 $50,000 $7,925,000 $2,300,000
2018 $8,000,000 $1,875,000* $500,000 $50,000 $10,425,000 $6,675,000
2019 $9,000,000 $1,875,000* $500,000 $50,000 $11,425,000 $9,550,000

* fully guaranteed
^ guaranteed for injury only, fully guaranteed on the seventh day of the 2017 league year
Klis did not specify Wolfe’s base salaries for these years, but these numbers are educated guesses to sum up the total contract worth to $36.7 million
Per-game roster bonuses

Broncos-Steelers Friday Injury Report

Getting to the Broncos first…

Everybody else was a full participant. Brock Osweiler will be questionable for Sunday’s game, but Gary Kubiak remains optimistic Osweiler will be active Sunday. Every other player is expected to play (other than whoever is made a game-day inactive).

On the other side, we know by this point that Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams will be out and Ben Roethlisberger will be questionable. Per this article from the Steelers’ website, no other player has been ruled out.