On young QBs and their development

Brock Osweiler has just made his first seven starts in the NFL, and has had some good games and some lesser ones. I wondered if it was possible to extrapolate how he’s going to do when he develops, so I put together this simple analysis.

I looked at the “passer rating” of a bunch of today’s NFL starting quarterbacks in their first two years or so of starting, game by game, and calculated the average of the ratings for their first games. Then I plotted them by number of games, as shown in the following graph. Most of them improved with some game experience, as one would hope! Brock is the wide, dark blue line, with the orange circles.

Young QBs.1 todaysNote: I didn’t correct for the number of attempts per game, so this is just a running average of the ratings. And I left out the games where they either didn’t start, or got knocked out of the game after just a few throws. So the numbers aren’t definitive.

Nonetheless, Brock is near the top. Only Kaepernick and RG3 are higher, and Matt Ryan is about the same. Russell Wilson also passes him eventually, but the rest of them are all lower. OK, Kaepernick and RG3 have fallen from grace, but who knows how that will play out.

What about the quarterbacks that have flamed out? The “Geno Smith, Joey Harrington” highly drafted but never lived up to expectations QBs?

I did the same analysis , and fortunately, Osweiler is well above all of them. (Note I left out the worst of them, the Akili Smith, Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leafs of the world.)

Young QBs.2 busts

Finally, let’s look at how Osweiler’s first games compare to some of the greatest QBs of all time.

Young QBs.3.alltime

Alright, he’s not right at the top here, but maybe we shouldn’t expect that. He is ahead of Peyton Manning, Joe Montana, Drew Brees. For his first seven starts, he’s basically the same as Tom Brady and Brett Favre. That’s pretty good company!

So based on this pretty simple analysis, I think that Osweiler is a good NFL quarterback, and potentially a very good one.

Broncos Thursday Practice Report

Osweiler has been dealing with an MCL sprain, so it’s no surprise the Broncos are taking it easy with him. If he doesn’t practice Friday, though, that means Trevor Siemian could be the No. 2 QB.

On another note, Von Miller was back at practice today.

Midweek Musings: Claims And Realities For Broncos-Steelers

As the Broncos get ready for their playoff opener against the Steelers, I figured it was time to revisit what actually happened the last time these two teams met in the regular season and what to really look for this weekend — depending on who takes the field, of course.

There’s going to be a lot of narratives that will surface, but if one goes back to look at the last meeting between the teams, it will tell you more than what the narrative really says. There are some obvious differences, such as Peyton Manning starting at quarterback for the Broncos and Ben Roethlisberger dealing with a shoulder injury, but I want to examine claims some might make and find out if they really had any bearing the last time the teams met.

Going over these, one by one:
Continue reading Midweek Musings: Claims And Realities For Broncos-Steelers

Broncos Add Three More On Future Contracts

Lost in all the excitement over the Great LA Debate was this:

Obviously, there’s a reason I highlighted the punter.

The other two added are TE Manasseh Green and OT Darrion Weems, the latter who was on the Broncos practice squad for two months in 2012 until the Dallas Cowboys signed him away.

More information about the three here.

Broncos Vs. Steelers: Pittsburgh Injury Updates

A quick summation of injury updates for the Pittsburgh Steelers, culled from tweets from Lindsay Jones.

* Steelers HC Mike Tomlin remains a bit vague regarding Ben Roethlisberger’s status.

* He was clearer on where WR Antonio Brown’s status presently stands.

* For another Steelers player who missed the Cincy game, his status is still up in the air.

For more information on what’s going on with Roethlisberger, you can read this.

There’s nothing new to report about Broncos players. They will practice again Wednesday.

Broncos Injury Reports For Early Week

Remember, it’s still early and the only time to become concerned about a player’s status for Sunday’s game is if he doesn’t practice by Friday.

It is good news, though, that DeMarcus Ware is able to practice, which indicates his knee injury wasn’t serious.

ETA: Normally I wouldn’t update this so late after posting, but there are a few things you might be interested in. First, regarding Chris Harris.

Then there’s Darian Stewart.

And Stewart remembers something very well from the last time the Broncos and Steelers met up.

Open Thread: Wild Card Weekend

Just as a reminder, today’s AFC games will determine who the Broncos will face in the Divisional Round next Sunday:

  • If the Steelers defeat the Bengals, Pittsburgh is guaranteed to travel to Denver.
  • If the Bengals defeat the Steelers, the winner of the Chiefs/Texans game will travel to Denver.