It’s All Orange Podcast: 05/19/16

Hello guys!

So, I have pondered and made the decision to do a podcast dedicated to the readers of this site. I will talk about happenings around the NFL and give you my humble opinion on those topics. I hope that in doing so I can keep in touch with you guys during my season since I will not have time to do the It’s All Orange, Fat Man after July/August. Preparing an audio takes 30 minutes while trying to prepare an It’s All Orange, Fat Man takes about an hour plus reading that I do beforehand. Anything that I can do to cut on time when I don’t have as much. I hope that most of my podcasts will range in between 15-20 minutes a piece.

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Risk Vs. Reward: A Better Way To Evaluate Offseason Moves

With the draft out of the way, the NFL offseason winding down and thoughts turning to offseason team activities and training camps, various sites are rolling out offseason grades for NFL teams.

I think there’s a better way to think about evaluating offseason moves: A risk versus reward system.

The way it works is this: Each time a team signs a free agent, trades for a player or moves up or down in the draft, you consider how much risk the team takes based on what the team will commit versus what benefit the team could receive.

So I’m going to examine the more notable moves the Denver Broncos made this offseason and consider the risk they are taking versus the potential reward if things work out. I’m only evaluating moves they made, not moves they didn’t make. (In other words, I’m not considering the free agents the Broncos didn’t re-sign or any trade attempts that didn’t happen.)
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Jason Elam, John Lynch and Simon Fletcher Elected To Broncos Ring Of Fame

Comparing 2015 to 2016, a best and worst case perspective

I’ve seen a lot of discussion lately about how the 2016 Broncos compare to the 2015 Broncos.  I thought I’d write a piece that takes a systematic view at each position group, and provides a best and worst case scenario.  I feel this is the best approach this time of year, and factors in the views of the homers and the pessimists.  At the end I provide a summary of the upside and risk of each position group.

Since 2016 injuries will be unpredictable, I’m comparing to a healthy 2015 team with the exception of Clady and Heuerman, who did not even make it to training camp last year.  I did factor in declining play among older veterans, and to a lesser extent, players whose play seemed affected by nagging injuries.  Additionally, I did not list injuries in every “worst case” scenario, although injuries could obviously create worse scenarios than I laid out here.

I tried to look at each group individually, even though their success is greatly intertwined.  For instance, if the O-line struggles, the running backs and QBs will not look good.  On the contrary, if the running game is strong, troubles by the passing game could be masked.

QB

Best case: Sanchez has a career year, fixing his turnover problem.  He does everything the Broncos ask him to do, is able to step up and be a leader, throw more when needed, and control the offense.  He uses the play action beautifully, and pulls out a couple heroic comeback wins.  Lynch looks good in preseason and when he comes in for mop up duty.

Worst case: Sanchez struggles and continues to throw picks.  He does not command the offense, and Lynch is thrust into the spotlight early.  Lynch is in over his head and struggles as much as Sanchez was.  Meanwhile, Brent tears it up Houston.  This is a dark scenario.

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The General Feeling Of The NFL Divisions, May 2016 Edition

With the draft now well in the books, there’s been a lot of scattered discussion about which teams are on the rise and fall in each division in the NFL.  I’m sure most of us will want to save our official predictions until just before the regular season, but in the meantime I thought I’d just put up a quick thread for us to share those opinions in one place in the comments for future reference.