Best And Worst Value Contracts For Each AFC Team

With offseason moves mostly settled, I figured I would sit down and look at every team’s contracts and determine which deals are the best and worst value on each team.

In doing so, I only focused on players who have signed long-term contracts beyond their rookie deals. That means players still under rookie deals or who are playing under various tags were not included.

In measuring which deals are the best and worst value, it’s important to remember that, when you are listing contracts in terms of value, that somebody has to be at the top and somebody has to be at the bottom. That means teams who tend to be careful with contract structure may have a player under contract that, for ranking purposes, isn’t good value, but in the overall picture really isn’t a bad deal. On the other hand, some teams might not have a contract that really stands out as great value overall, but happens to be the best value for players on that team.

In fact, you will find that, in most cases, the “worst value” deals aren’t exactly bad, but they are often ones that weren’t structured well. In a few cases, though, there are deals in which a team definitely overpaid for a talent.

Remember that this isn’t a case of best and worst deals in the NFL, but the best and worst for each team. So one team’s best deal may not be among the best in the NFL and another’s worst deal wouldn’t be among the worst overall in the NFL.

I’m starting this series with the AFC and listing them by division. I will go over the NFC sometime in the next few days.
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Just how long are the odds for Trevor Siemian

Anyone who has been trying to follow the Broncos during this slow period has no doubt heard the Siemian hype, with many fans talking about how he might have a chance to win the starting QB job over Sanchez and Lynch.  Being a numbers guy, I thought I’d take a look at how previous QBs from the late rounds have fared, and start to think about whether Siemian is more or less likely than these odds would suggest.  Using Pro Football Reference’s draft finder and player season finder, it is possible to quickly get a feel for the success rate of QBs drafted at various spots in the draft.

Note that I did not reproduce the tables in this article, I only linked to them on PFR’s website.  I strongly encourage you to click through and view them, and adjust, sort and tinker with the tables as you read through.  It’s a pretty simple interface, but if you have questions or trouble, let me know. Continue reading Just how long are the odds for Trevor Siemian