The longtime conventional wisdom of coaches results in teams rarely going for it on 4th down. Recent analytical studies argue for going for it far more often. My own sensibilities reside somewhere in the middle of these two approaches. I certainly feel coaches are too conservative, but I also have yet to buy into some of the excesses of the other side. With this article, I want to explore the subject further by starting with some common sense observations, and then extrapolating it with some data that could be useful to build upon that common sense into a possible model. That model is what I’ll term the Go For It Range, dividing the field into areas where going for it on 4th down is advocated, opposed, or debatable. To see the Go For It Range in action, visit this page, in which I’ve programmed the model for any offense versus any defense.
Continue reading The Go For It Range: A Different Look At 4th Down
