Broncos D Back In Conversation For NFL’s Best

Football Outsiders has released its DVOA ratings for Week 4 and is now accounting for opponents to an extent.

Although we are four weeks into the season, it’s still too early to say for certain how every team will finish overall and the full playoff picture. It’s possible for a team to start 1-3 but finish 10-6 or for a team to start 3-1 but finish 8-8. And, in recent seasons, we’ve seen multiple teams finish with unimpressive overall records but make the playoffs because their division was weak overall.

So what does it all mean for the Broncos and other teams? Let’s start by looking at FO’s DVOA.
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The Morning After: Broncos Keep Getting Better

We’ve often talked about how great teams should be able to beat the bad teams decisively and put them away by the fourth quarter. The Broncos did that yesterday against Tampa Bay.

Last year, that wasn’t the case. The Broncos tended to let even the bad teams hang around with them, only for the defense to come through with crucial plays that gave the Broncos the win. They had to go to overtime to beat the Browns 26-23, they won a sloppy game against the Bears 17-15 and they turned the ball over too much against San Diego to close out the season with a 27-20 win. Throw in the Ravens’ game, which the Broncos won 19-13 thanks to last-second heroics by the defense and the Broncos had their issues against several teams who drafted in the top 10 this past offseason.

Things have changed this season. Tampa Bay looks like a team that may draft in the top 10 and the Broncos had the game won early in the fourth quarter, despite losing Trevor Siemian to a shoulder injury. That Paxton Lynch was able to hold the fort down is a good sign (I’ll get to that in a few minutes). The Bucs did have injury issues throughout the game, but the great teams have to capitalize on that rather than assuming they have the game in the bag.
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