Month: February 2016

We know that the Broncos are planning to talk about an extension for Brock Osweiler. The question becomes how long the contract should be for and how much money he should initially receive, keeping in mind that the Broncos need to protect themselves in case he doesn’t improve, but that Osweiler should get some flexibility if he not only improves, but shows he can play a major role in getting the Broncos to the playoffs and making a deep run.

I’ve previously discussed teams who some might think would come into play for Osweiler’s services but that I don’t believe most teams will pursue him. Furthermore, I don’t believe Osweiler is going to get as much money as some people think, but he’s not exactly going to come at a bargain price. Let’s examine a few things to keep in mind that will impact the deal Osweiler will actually receive.

What works in his favor is that Osweiler did a respectable job when he replaced Peyton Manning in the starting lineup. He had two games in which the Broncos trailed (New England and Cincinnati), but he capitalized on situations that allowed the Broncos to win those games. He appeared to be a good fit for Gary Kubiak’s offense, he was able to make most throws and his teammates liked him. Once in a while, he showed the ability to see what defenses were doing and adjust plays as needed.
Continue reading What Contract Should Brock Osweiler Receive?

The analysts and professionals in the world of football have turned away from the analysis of the Super Bowl and turned their focus onto free agency, franchise tags, and salary cap economics (also known as “Caponomics”). Which is good for us considering we have two of the most brilliant geniuses in Bob Morris and Nick Korte, both with a street doctorate in Capology and a minor in Finance. They both do a great job in helping us uneducated folk navigate the complex road of roster and cap structures in the world of football. Also helping us yesterday was another one of our great contributors, Ray Crane, who provided us with a good plan for the Broncos to execute this coming free agency.

Continue reading It’s All Orange, Fat Man: 02/11/16

Ryan Clady was one of the best draft picks Mike Shanahan made in his final season with the Denver Broncos. He remained steady through the two years Josh McDaniels coached the team and was off to a good start under John Fox, before a Lisfranic injury cut his 2013 season short. He wasn’t the same player in 2014 and hopes for him to bounce back in 2015 didn’t materialize after he tore his ACL.

He now enters 2016 with a $10.1M cap number, which is too much for a player who has missed so many games in the past three seasons. Clady has indicated he would be open to restructuring his contract, saying he wants to spend the rest of his career with the Broncos. We know that restructuring doesn’t always mean “pay cut,” but it’s clear if Clady is to stick around in 2016, his cap number must be reduced.

There are two ways for the Broncos to accomplish this that go beyond just asking him to take a pay cut in 2016, although each will require him to take less money for the coming season.
Continue reading How The Broncos Might Keep Ryan Clady Around

As I prepare different articles about the offseason, I will give you a list of players who are likely getting the franchise tag.

I have grouped them into three categories. The first are those players who will definitely be tagged. The second are players who you would expect to get the tag, but you never know what the team might be thinking, particularly if its cap situation is tight. The third are players who might get that tag but are just as likely to hit the open market.

As always, if a player agrees to an extension with his current team, the tag won’t be necessary.

Guaranteed to get the tag

Von Miller: The best free agent pass rusher is one the Broncos won’t let get away.
Eric Berry: After a strong 2015 season after returning from cancer treatments, the Chiefs will make sure he stays with them.
Josh Norman: He’s improved with each season, his ceiling is high and Panthers fans love him. He’ll stay with Carolina.
Muhammed Wilkerson: Although he broke his leg near the end of the season, he played so well that you would expect the Jets to retain him, although they might be cautious with a long-term deal.
Justin Tucker: One of the better kickers in the NFL. The Ravens are tight on cap space but should be able to squeeze his tag number in.
Marquette King: The Raiders don’t have other free agents worth the franchise tag, so this will be an easy decision to tag their punter.

Top candidates for a tag

Alshon Jeffery: He’s been a quality wide receiver but the Bears did spend a high draft pick on Kevin White. It remains to be seen what they decide. This one could go either way.
Cordy Glenn: He is a very good left tackle and the Bills say they want to keep the offensive line intact. They can release Mario Williams to make room for Glenn’s franchise tag.
Oliver Vernon: It would make sense for the Dolphins to part ways with Cameron Wake and put the tag on Vernon, who broke out in 2015. But with the Dolphins, you never know what they may decide.
George Iloka: The Bengals have numerous players in their secondary who will be free agents. Iloka is the youngest and a quality safety, so the franchise tag makes sense. Of course, the Bengals could surprise and tag another member of the secondary.
Mason Crosby: He’s coming off one of his best seasons. The Packers don’t have any other free agents worthy of the tag, so the move would make sense.

Remains to be seen

Janoris Jenkins or Trumaine Johnson: Both Rams cornerbacks played well this season. I believe the Rams will want to keep at least one of them. Jenkins has better talent but Johnson gives up fewer big plays.
Tashaun Gipson: An ankle injury limited him in 2015, but he might be able to bounce back. The question is whether the Browns think he’s worth the franchise tag.
Doug Martin: He bounced back after two subpar seasons, but it remains to be seen if the Buccaneers think he’s worth tagging.

Players I would not expect to get the tag are Kirk Cousins (more likely Washington will get him extended), Eric Weddle (it’s clear he won’t return to San Diego), Kelechi Osemele (Ravens don’t have the cap space to tag him) and Damon Harrison (quality player but the Jets will most likely tag Wilkerson).

Hello, Bronco fans! We’ve got a lot of reasons to feel good about the season overall (hey, who wouldn’t feel good about winning the Super Bowl?) but, as everyone knows by now, there will be a lot of tough decisions the Broncos will have to make as they try to remain Super Bowl favorites next season.

I’m going to do a series of offseason primers in which I specifically look at the Broncos’ needs, although there will be times when I’ll examine what other teams are like to give you examples of what to do, or not to do, when utilizing free agency.

We’ll start this with a look at each position and how high a priority it is to address (keeping in mind a priority could increase depending on roster cuts) and then I’ll examine the players who are set to become free agents (exclusive rights, restricted and unrestricted) and what to do with each of them.

In future installments, I’ll address specific players and their contract situations. As time permits, I’ll talk about what other teams may need to do to illustrate examples of roster management (good or bad) and some of the unrestricted free agents the Broncos could consider.
Continue reading Offseason Primer: Positions, Priorities and Players

We won!!! First off, I want to start off by saying I told you so. Each of those key points to winning the game were met, and I couldn’t be happier. I know it’s quick, but we’re on to the offseason now and I’m excited.

Below is a list of unrestricted free agents:

• OLB Von Miller
• DE Malik Jackson
• QB Brock Osweiler
• ILB Danny Trevathan
• RB Ronnie Hillman
• S David Bruton
• DB Omar Bolden
• TE Vernon Davis
• LG Evan Mathis
• DE Antonio Smith
• OT Ryan Harris
• OT Tyler Polumbus
• WR Andre Caldwell
• WR Jordan Norwood
• WR Kyle Williams
• S Josh Bush
• S Shiloh Keo

In all seriousness, I believe Manning will likely retire, despite how frequently he dodged the question in all interviews. He’ll also drink Budweiser, apparently. We may also see Ware and Antonio Smith play their last game, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Ware tries to remain. The only way I can see him staying is if he restructures his contract to get a pay cut. Don’t forget we have the Kenny Annuke, who was placed on IR earlier this season.

Not re-signing or franchise tagging Von Miller would be the biggest mistake the Broncos will have made since hiring McDaniels to be our head coach. It has to happen. Brock Osweiler has undoubtedly shown he can lead this offense, and it is likely he will sign about a 4-year contract.

However, I wonder if we can afford Danny Trevathan and Malik Jackson, unless we reduce our expenses. Regardless, I expect most of our defense to remain outside of these guys, which will help us in the next year win many games once again.

As much as I criticized Ryan Harris, he has become a staple in our offensive line and I expect him to be re-signed along with Tyler Polumbus. Whether or not these two make the team next year is a different question, as we’ll have Ryan Clady and Ty Sambrailo back (remember them?).  Evan Mathis will unlikely get an offer to re-sign, but he will take any pay he can to stay on this team. Jordan Norwood, Kyle Williams, and Bubba Caldwell will most likely re-sign too, but whether or not they make the roster next year is a different question.

Shiloh Keo has to make the roster because of his plays, and Josh Bush played solid as well. There is going to be a tough competition keeping Omar Bolden and David Bruton on the team, however. While as good as they are on special teams, their injuries and lack of production on defense pushes their stock down. David Bruton is easily one of my favorite players on the roster, so I hope he stays on. Two of these four will be on the team next year.

I have huge question marks for Vernon Davis and Ronnie Hillman remaining on the team. Vernon Davis had limited playing time after he was acquired, and Hillman took less snaps throughout the playoffs. TE Jeff Heuerman, who was selected in the 3rd round of the draft, will likely take Davis’ spot on the roster. I wouldn’t be surprised if we sign Hillman and Davis to short-term contracts and decide whether or not to keep them on the 53-man roster by the end of the the preseason.

Reserves:

We have the following players signed to future reserves to try and make a spot on the roster:

#	NAME	POS.	HT.	WT.	AGE	EXP.	COLLEGE
	Davis, Jace	WR	6-1	206	24	1	Northern Colorado
	Gray, Cyrus	RB	5-10	206			Texas A&M
	Lowery, B.J.	DB	5-11	193			Iowa
	Posey, DeVier	WR	6-1	210	25	4	Ohio State

I expect each of these guys to give a good run for their money, but I won’t be surprised if Cyrus Gray makes the roster. He played with the Chiefs and was let go the season after tearing his ACL. He’s quick, has a good juke, and can read holes better than Hillman, in my opinion.

Draft/Free Agency:

It’s difficult to predict the draft, and anyone that says otherwise is wrong. Yes, all of us fans want to sign a better offensive linemen, or a great running back, but the truth is that John Elway finds whomever is the best player at that draft spot. It’s worked well for us these past couple of years, so I expect that to happen again this year. He’s stated again and again that he fills needs through free agency.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we pick up running back Matt Forte to rotate with CJ Anderson. Since our offense is going to see more of the Kubiak system, I expect a fullback to be picked up like Mike Tolbert or John Kuhn.

The Broncos keep flirting with Tight Ends, and we witnessed a lot of signing and cutting of Tight Ends throughout the season on the practice squad. I expect the Broncos to chase Antonio Gates, Zach Miller, Jermaine Gresham, Daniel Fells, or Tony Moeaki. I can’t foresee us going after any wide receivers based on our current depth.

I feel rather confident that we’ll try to find a right tackle, but at this time I’m not sure who that would be. Perhaps we’ll chase after Cordy Glenn. We’ll also likely try to bring in a veteran line guard like Alex Mack.

I expect little to no change in our defense. Although, we may try out some linebackers to fill in the gap Trevathan could possibly leave.

Below are our draft positions:

• First round – pick 31
• Second round – pick 63
• Third round – pick 95
• Fifth round – compensatory pick unknown
• Seventh round – 3 compensatory picks unknown

Coaching:

Letting go of Kubiak won’t happen. End of story.

Wade Phillips has openly admitted that he is a horrible head coach, to which I disagree, but this only means that we can expect him to be the defensive coordinator here until he retires.

Rick Dennison, our offensive coordinator, hasn’t had a spectacular year. In fact, it was mostly terrible. I hope he doesn’t stay, but there is a possibility Kubiak and Elway will ask him to stay one more year before making a decision.

I can’t imagine any of our assistants leaving the team either after winning the Super Bowl, but I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the assistants on defense get offered a position on other teams.

Introduction

Hello all. Hope all is well on your side of the world. Welcome to the first edition of “It’s All Orange, Fat Man!” which used to be known as the “Daily Lard” on the site which does not need to be named. I am not even going to attempt to fill Douglas Lee’s shoes who wrote the Daily Lard for years. He eloquently set a Cal Ripken-like streak of quality, or not so quality, news to links. I will be doing a similar format as he would to recreate the content we used to love and enjoy. Albeit, there will be a lot less words used and it will be a lot less eloquent.

My objective going forward is to provide the best conglomeration of information for one person: YOU! So this is your product. If you don’t like something about it or have ideas on how to make it better, please tell me. If you want to tell me that my grammar sucks and/or there are certain words that are misspelled, tell me. If you want to tell me that I am doing a fantastic job, tell me. Finally, if you just want to add some links that I didn’t include but you feel is interesting/relevant to the conversation, comment below. My main reason for doing this is to give you our edition of the morning newspaper, which I can only make great with the help of your input. So please, don’t hesitate to include your feedback.

I also want to let you know that if this is something you are definitely not interested in and want to go in another direction in the form of a daily thread, please let me know and we can go in that direction as well. As I have said before, this is designed for you, not me.

Continue reading It’s All Orange, Fat Man: 02/10/16

Jeremy helped us out by doing so for the days leading up to the Super Bowl, and I’d appreciate some feedback as to how people thought that experiment went.  If there is interest in doing this regularly, I could look into seeing if I could automatically program a post to be created daily for this purpose.  If so, I’d also like a catchier name than simply “Open Thread” so that people will know that it’s an auto-programmed post.  Please leave any good suggestions for such a name, as well.

In the meantime, feel free to use this thread as a grab bag to collect all the glorious aftermath of the Broncos winning Super Bowl 50!

As we all know well, due to the privilege of winning the Super Bowl, the Broncos will get to start their next season at home on Thursday night on NBC.  In addition to the usual division rivals, Denver will host Houston, Indianapolis, New England, Atlanta…and Carolina.

I think it’s safe to say that the Panthers game will be ruled out, as Fox will fight tooth and nail to get that game as one of their featured ones, considering they only get the Broncos twice a year under the standard scheduling rules.  That may also rule out the Falcons for similar reasons.  I think CBS will fight hard for the Patriots game since they lost it to NBC in 2015.  Gary Kubiak facing his former team in the Texans also seems destined for prime time in midseason.

My leading guess would be the Colts, with the Chiefs or Raiders also being real possibilities.  What say you?