There was a point where I tweeted out that today’s Broncos-Steelers game didn’t feel like a one-point game.
We can all feel pretty good that it was, though, because it gave the Broncos a chance to win in the fourth quarter despite having too many hiccups on offense and defense.
Continue reading Gut Reactions: ‘We’re On To New England’
Onto the next round. Here are some of my observations after today’s game.
"You always want to sign your own." - #Broncos EVP/GM @johnelway on signing DE Derek Wolfe through the 2019 season pic.twitter.com/wh6toCNwP3
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) January 15, 2016
Well, that’s one thing the Broncos can cross off their to-do list for the offseason.
And to think I was spending my time this afternoon tinkering with my offseason game plan for the Broncos. Mind you, though, that’s a good thing in this case.
UPDATE: Ian Rapoport has the contract’s total sum and some details on the breakdown. More information should be coming as to what are the full guarantees, injury-only guarantees and signing bonus.
#Broncos signed DE Derek Wolfe to a 4-year contract extension worth $36.7M, source said. He wanted to stay in Denver, could've gotten more
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 15, 2016
For #Broncos DE Derek Wolfe, he gets $17.5M in guarantees on his 4-year, $36.7M deal ($9.175M average).
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 15, 2016
ADDENDUM, 9 PM MT (Nick): Using Mike Klis’s report as a source, the contract breakdown for Wolfe should be something close to this:
| Base Salary | Prorated Bonus | Roster Bonus | Workout Bonus | Cap Number |
Cap Savings (pre-June 1 cut) |
|
| 2016 | $4,500,000* | $1,875,000* | $500,000‡ | $50,000 | $6,925,000 | ($5,075,000) |
| 2017 | $5,500,000^ | $1,875,000* | $500,000‡ | $50,000 | $7,925,000 | $2,300,000 |
| 2018 | $8,000,000† | $1,875,000* | $500,000‡ | $50,000 | $10,425,000 | $6,675,000 |
| 2019 | $9,000,000† | $1,875,000* | $500,000‡ | $50,000 | $11,425,000 | $9,550,000 |
* fully guaranteed
^ guaranteed for injury only, fully guaranteed on the seventh day of the 2017 league year
† Klis did not specify Wolfe’s base salaries for these years, but these numbers are educated guesses to sum up the total contract worth to $36.7 million
‡ Per-game roster bonuses
Getting to the Broncos first…
#broncos Juwan Thompson limited w illness. Osweiler showed enough today to be backup on Sunday w knee issue
— Troy Renck (@TroyRenck) January 15, 2016
Everybody else was a full participant. Brock Osweiler will be questionable for Sunday’s game, but Gary Kubiak remains optimistic Osweiler will be active Sunday. Every other player is expected to play (other than whoever is made a game-day inactive).
On the other side, we know by this point that Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams will be out and Ben Roethlisberger will be questionable. Per this article from the Steelers’ website, no other player has been ruled out.
Since I haven’t been able to figure out how to sticky posts for easy reference, I started a new thread in which everyone can talk about the new head coach hirings.
Also, it’s an excuse for me to talk about them in a little more detail.
Continue reading Open Thread: New Head Coaches
Brock Osweiler has just made his first seven starts in the NFL, and has had some good games and some lesser ones. I wondered if it was possible to extrapolate how he’s going to do when he develops, so I put together this simple analysis.
I looked at the “passer rating” of a bunch of today’s NFL starting quarterbacks in their first two years or so of starting, game by game, and calculated the average of the ratings for their first games. Then I plotted them by number of games, as shown in the following graph. Most of them improved with some game experience, as one would hope! Brock is the wide, dark blue line, with the orange circles.
Note: I didn’t correct for the number of attempts per game, so this is just a running average of the ratings. And I left out the games where they either didn’t start, or got knocked out of the game after just a few throws. So the numbers aren’t definitive.
Nonetheless, Brock is near the top. Only Kaepernick and RG3 are higher, and Matt Ryan is about the same. Russell Wilson also passes him eventually, but the rest of them are all lower. OK, Kaepernick and RG3 have fallen from grace, but who knows how that will play out.
What about the quarterbacks that have flamed out? The “Geno Smith, Joey Harrington” highly drafted but never lived up to expectations QBs?
I did the same analysis , and fortunately, Osweiler is well above all of them. (Note I left out the worst of them, the Akili Smith, Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leafs of the world.)
Finally, let’s look at how Osweiler’s first games compare to some of the greatest QBs of all time.
Alright, he’s not right at the top here, but maybe we shouldn’t expect that. He is ahead of Peyton Manning, Joe Montana, Drew Brees. For his first seven starts, he’s basically the same as Tom Brady and Brett Favre. That’s pretty good company!
So based on this pretty simple analysis, I think that Osweiler is a good NFL quarterback, and potentially a very good one.
Looks like Brock Osweiler is not practicing again today. He is out there, but was working off to the side, not w/ QBs, during ind drills.
— Lindsay Jones (@bylindsayhjones) January 14, 2016
Osweiler has been dealing with an MCL sprain, so it’s no surprise the Broncos are taking it easy with him. If he doesn’t practice Friday, though, that means Trevor Siemian could be the No. 2 QB.
On another note, Von Miller was back at practice today.
As the Broncos get ready for their playoff opener against the Steelers, I figured it was time to revisit what actually happened the last time these two teams met in the regular season and what to really look for this weekend — depending on who takes the field, of course.
There’s going to be a lot of narratives that will surface, but if one goes back to look at the last meeting between the teams, it will tell you more than what the narrative really says. There are some obvious differences, such as Peyton Manning starting at quarterback for the Broncos and Ben Roethlisberger dealing with a shoulder injury, but I want to examine claims some might make and find out if they really had any bearing the last time the teams met.
Going over these, one by one:
Continue reading Midweek Musings: Claims And Realities For Broncos-Steelers