The Morning After: Broncos Are Super Bowl Bound

No, you were not dreaming yesterday. The Denver Broncos are going to the Super Bowl.

There were certainly times when we had our doubts. We saw games the Broncos should have won, get away from them. We saw a defense that has mostly dominated, have its share of bad outings and wondered how long it would hold up. We debated endlessly about who should start at quarterback, who should play right tackle and which running back should get the bulk of the carries.

And, yet, here we are, headed to Super Bowl 50 for a matchup with the Carolina Panthers.
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A Look At Pats With Brady In Mile High

I’m not the type who likes to go around talking about quarterback win-loss records because they really aren’t that meaningful. However, because there are pundits that will talk about them, and particularly talk about them when comparing this week’s AFC title game quarterbacks to one another, I figured I’d explore one guy’s stat.

The talk, of course, centers around Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady, but I wanted to look at something different, and that’s Brady performance when playing the Broncos in Denver. You may have heard that Brady is 2-7 when playing the Broncos on the road, but let’s set that aside for the moment.

It may not have seem liked it, given that we’ve focused so much on recent Brady vs. Manning history, but the truth is, in games with Manning as the Broncos’ starter, the Broncos and Patriots have played each other three times in New England and just once in Denver. Were it not for Manning missing the regular-season matchup this year, that would have been the first time Brady and Manning played opposite each other in Denver in the regular season. Sunday’s AFC title will mark the second time the two played each other in Denver, but both were playoff games.
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On older QBs and their decline

This is an analysis of the age-related decline of older quarterbacks. To analyse this, I originally thought I’d plot a series of points for each QB, showing passer rating vs. passing yards. Then we could see how they progressed in terms of both quantity and quality. However, the graph got very messy after only a few players, as shown. (Peyton Manning is the dark blue line.)

Old QB.0

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Midweek Musings: Broncos-Patriots Isn’t About You-Know-What-Matchup

All week long, you’re likely to spend your time hearing talk about the upcoming AFC championship game between the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots as if it boiled down to a one-on-one matchup or one factor being responsible for whatever the outcome will be.

Julian Edelman’s return means a Patriots win! Chris Harris’ shoulder injury means the Broncos secondary is in trouble! Patriots O-line figured out how to stop the pass rush last week! Every dropped pass is Peyton Manning’s decline! And the one you will hear more than any other, BRADY VS. MANNING FOR THE FINAL TIME, THERE WILL NEVER BE ANOTHER GREAT QB RIVALRY!

That’s just a short list, of course, but my larger point is that you can’t really fit this conference title matchup into a neat little box with just a couple of factoids and trivia tidbits that explain everything about what will happen. We know that football is a complex sport and, while every sports reporter wants to boil a game down to one single play (I should know, I’m a sports reporter in real life), multiple factors play into the outcome.
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Bolden’s Season Over; Harris’ Shoulder Still Hurt

The first bit of news was already mentioned elsewhere, but here it is.

Tough blow, especially after Bolden had a great punt return to start his day. One would suspect somebody gets moved up from the practice squad and Shiloh Keo will be active for special teams against New England.

Kubiak expects Harris to play Sunday, but he will be limited.

The real key, though, is for the Broncos to get the pass rush going and keep those players healthy. The Patriots facing the Chiefs with Justin Houston limited to eight snaps and Tamba Hali not at full strength is one thing, but if the Broncos can keep their defensive front seven intact throughout the game, it could help counter what ails Harris.

Of course, it’s also worth crossing our fingers that the Broncos don’t lose any more defensive backs to injury.