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Last week I talked about why power rankings shouldn’t be taken so seriously, and now comes a reminder about what I said last week about the third week of the season: You can safely judge which teams are likely to miss the playoffs but not more than that.

It’s the fourth week of the season in which you learn more about which teams are heading in what direction. That’s because the fourth week is when most teams have finished one-fourth of their season. So when you look at Football Outsiders DVOA rankings, even after the third week, you aren’t going to get a clear picture of where teams are really headed.

But there are a few observations we can make about teams who started 3-0 and 0-3 and where they are most likely headed, based on what we can gather about them this season. We can do the same with teams who are ranked high in offensive or defensive DVOA, even before Football Outsiders starts taking strength of schedule into account after Week Four.

So let’s examine certain areas and ask ourselves where teams are likely headed.
Continue reading So Where Are We At After Three Weeks?

For those who looked at my NFL predictions, I had the Broncos losing on the road to Cincinnati. Turns out I was wrong, but that’s a good thing, mind you.

What yesterday’s game showed is that, while the Broncos aren’t going to dominate everyone defensively like last year, they remain a resilient team that finds ways to get it done even when things don’t go well early.
Continue reading The Morning After: Broncos Remain Resilient

In my recent 10 things I liked/didn’t like post, I alluded to Trevor Siemian’s ability to go through progressions and getting the ball to open receivers. I also mentioned that he has a tendency of checking down too quickly.

I previously wrote about Brock Osweiler when he was still with our team. As I was watching the Houston Texans game against the New England Patriots last night, it’s unfortunate for me to say he hasn’t improved in his weaknesses at all. There still isn’t enough tape for me to properly evaluate Trevor Siemian, but I like what I see so far. I say his biggest weakness is he is too conservative at times and reminds me a little of our previous quarterback Kyle Orton.

I’ll review our last game against the Colts, since they had a little more tape from another game and could adjust their defense accordingly.

Continue reading Simply Siemian

The Broncos are beginning a two-game road trip soon, and I expressed particular worry about the second of these games at Tampa due to the horrendous record the team has in the state of Florida.  That got me to thinking: what records do the Broncos have if you group all their games by state?

Continue reading The Record Of The Denver Broncos By State

In the weeks that led up to the start of the NFL season, most of those rolling out power rankings didn’t think much about the Broncos, and two weeks into the season, some still aren’t ranking them that high.

But the one thing we must remember when we debate power rankings is that we need to ask everyone who puts them together these four words:

What. Is. Your. Criteria.
Continue reading Don’t Take Power Rankings So Seriously

I rare pay attention to the media, but I was getting a good laugh at the power rankings prior to this game. It’s amazing how if you lose three players on defense and get a new QB then your rankings drop significantly. Statistically, Trevor Siemian is looking better than Peyton Manning.

However, the statistics don’t show everything. What they don’t account for is 100% of the job the quarterback does prior to the snap: changing up the play, making checks, reading the defense, etc. Despite Manning’s poor play in the regular season last year, we still had an effective offense because of his pre-snap decisions. This showed in the Super Bowl too.

Siemian is a work in progress. He should’ve made some changes at the line of scrimmage on Sunday. When it came to throwing the ball, though, he played decently. One of his biggest strengths is the ability to sling the ball despite the pressure. He makes defenses pay for blitzing him by completing passes to open receivers. His weakness is going to his checkdown too quickly. He doesn’t believe in his ability enough to sling it out to his first option. At least he is reviewing his throwing options unlike a particular someone (ahem Brock Osweiler).

Continue reading Colts at Broncos: The 10 Things I Liked and the 10 Things I Didn’t

Good afternoon, Broncos fans! It always feels good to start a season at 2-0, especially when there were a lot of skeptics, doubters and cynics out there who thought the Broncos were destined to struggle because they didn’t have a top QB and their defense couldn’t possibly be as good as it was last year.

Through two games, we know that the Broncos are having a few growing pains, but the defense overall remains strong and the offense has shown it can do some good things. And while there’s a lot of football left to be played, it’s becoming clearer that the Broncos have the makings of being a playoff contender again this year.

Let’s look at each area of the team and address what might be some of the concerns with each at this point.
Continue reading The Morning After: Early Broncos Impressions