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With the Nov. 1 NFL trade deadline approaching, prepare to see a lot of reports, rumors and takes about who is likely to be traded.

Midseason trades in the NFL don’t happen often and they seldom involve “name” players unless they happen to be in decline. Speculation about trades often comes from people who believe that teams with losing records are better off getting draft picks than hanging onto players with name value, but they don’t always follow a logical pattern.

If a team is thinking about trading a player, it needs to consider the following factors:
Continue reading Which NFL Players Are Most Likely Being Traded?

The Monday Night Football game between the Broncos and the Texans was further evidence that Brock Osweiler isn’t worth the contract that the Texans gave him.

Granted, John Elway was prepared to pay a fair amount of money for Osweiler, too, though initial reports were that he wanted to keep his average salary per year around $12M, but made his final offer at $45M over three years. On one hand, it’s a bit misleading to say Elway was wise not to pursue Osweiler because he did make an effort to re-sign him. On the other hand, Elway was smart enough not to declare “the sky’s the limit” when it came to retaining him.

What the Osweiler contract really demonstrates is the importance of teams to exercise restraint when they offer contracts to free agents. Even if you consider that the Texans only have to commit to Osweiler for two years at $37M, that’s still too much to pay for a player of his talents.
Continue reading Osweiler’s Bad Contract Has Company

In honor of the kicking trainwreck that was Sunday night’s 6-6 tie between the Seahawks and Cardinals, I thought it might interesting to see what happened if the NFL never took the step of instituting regular season overtime in 1974.  As you may know, the first such game invoking the rule was when the Broncos hosted the Steelers that year–and it still ended in a tie.  The only other time the rule was invoked that year was a Big Apple showdown between the Giants and Jets.  And if you know anything about football in New York in 1970s, it was very pathetic, so the outcome of that game did not affect any playoff seedings.

But if ties at the end of regulation remained that way after 1974, there would indeed be changes in fortune for several teams.  The following is a list of how playoff teams and seedings would have changed–and yes, we’ll have to ignore a bunch of alternate history butterflies that would take place in making the difference between a team going deep in the playoffs, or firing the coach and front office after barely missing them.

And be forewarned: this universe is not kind to the Broncos, so we should all be grateful that regular season overtime exists. Continue reading What If The Regular Season Overtime Rule Was Never Added?

Broncos traded a 2017 draft to New England for TE AJ Derby, per source. https://t.co/q4iAghsnQM

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 25, 2016

To add onto this: Denver is sending its 5th round pick in 2017 for Derby, per a league source. https://t.co/IUe5ndDyoD

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 25, 2016

The Broncos are projected to get a 5th round compensatory pick for Danny Trevathan, thus buffering the loss of either this comp pick or their own 5th rounder, both of which are likely to be near each other anyway.  Derby is under contract through 2018, and should only count about $265,000 against the 2016 salary cap.

UPDATE (2:50 PM MT): Mike Klis says it’s instead a 7th round pick, and as Bob mentions in comments, news of a 5th rounder could only be conditional depending on Derby’s performance.

Broncos acquire TE AJ Darby from NE for 7th round pick. @AdamSchefter first to report. #9news

— Mike Klis (@MikeKlis) October 25, 2016

UPDATE #2 (4:30 PM MT): Klis has deleted the above tweet, and now has concurred with Schefter in that it was an unconditional 5th rounder.  Here’s a snapshot of the official report of both the trade of Derby and also the Patriots’ acquisition of Kyle Van Noy from Detroit.

It’s become tradition on this site to refer to any former Bronco as an “old friend” when he makes news with another team.  In honor of one of the most notable current old friends coming back to Denver tonight, I thought I’d put together a reference list of former Broncos that are active in the league today.  I built this list manually, so it’s likely I forgot a few people–please speak up so I can add them to the list.

And yes, in 2016 one team sticks out blatantly as being a safe space for old friends.

Buffalo

• Lerentee McCray

Miami

• Adam Gase
• Chris Kuper¹

New England

• Josh McDaniels*

NY Jets

• Ryan Clady
• Brandon Marshall³
• Eric Decker

Baltimore

• Elvis Dumervil

Cleveland

• Britton Colquitt

Pittsburgh

• Ryan Harris

Houston

• Rick Smith
• Brock Osweiler
• Chris Clark

Indianapolis

• Mike Adams

Jacksonville

• Julius Thomas
• Malik Jackson

Tennessee

• Wesley Woodyard
• Perrish Cox²
• Brett Kern

Oakland

• Jack Del Rio

San Diego

• Mike McCoy
• Orlando Franklin

Dallas

• Mark Sanchez

NY Giants

• Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

Washington

• David Bruton
• Vernon Davis
• Kory Lichtensteiger
• Vinston Painter

Chicago

• John Fox
• Jay Cutler
• Danny Trevathan
• Eddie Royal
• Tracy Porter
• Mitch Unrein
• Lamin Barrow
• Connor Barth
• Ben McDaniels
• Ed Donatell

Detroit

• Matt Prater

Minnesota

• Ronnie Hillman

Atlanta⁴

• Jacob Tamme
• Ben Garland

Arizona

• Evan Mathis
• Aaron Brewer
• Bobby Turner
• Richard Smith
• Marquand Manuel

San Francisco

• Zane Beadles

Seattle

• Stephen Hauschka
• Sealver Siliga

---

*C’mon, you knew an asterisk had to be placed by him in an list entitled “Old Friends”.
¹Yes, I was surprised but happy to learn that he’s entered coaching.
²Without a doubt, this is the one former Bronco I just can’t refer to as an “old friend”.
³However, if I’m going to be adamant in creating footnote 2, then in the interest of fairness there should probably be a footnote here.  I might write more on this later this week.
⁴I feel like Kyle Shanahan deserves an honorable mention–despite coaching frequently for two of the greatest coaches in Broncos history, he surprisingly has zero tenure as a Bronco himself.

The longtime conventional wisdom of coaches results in teams rarely going for it on 4th down.  Recent analytical studies argue for going for it far more often.  My own sensibilities reside somewhere in the middle of these two approaches. I certainly feel coaches are too conservative, but I also have yet to buy into some of the excesses of the other side.  With this article, I want to explore the subject further by starting with some common sense observations, and then extrapolating it with some data that could be useful to build upon that common sense into a possible model.  That model is what I’ll term the Go For It Range, dividing the field into areas where going for it on 4th down is advocated, opposed, or debatable.  To see the Go For It Range in action, visit this page, in which I’ve programmed the model for any offense versus any defense.

Continue reading The Go For It Range: A Different Look At 4th Down

Continue reading Brads NFL Picks Week Seven 2016

To take our minds off a disappointing loss, I thought I’d share a piece looking back at a moment in recent Broncos history, that many fans seem to have already forgotten, October 2014.  I’m using IAOFM as a bit of a time machine, and will link to their content throughout the article.  (Many thanks to them for not only writing this content, but continuing to leave it up).

Setting the stage:

The Broncos were only 8 months removed from the disappointing end to the 2013 season.  The offense that had set records for most points and yards in a season had remained largely intact, losing only Knowshon Moreno, Eric Decker, and Zane Beadles, and filling those holes with Emmanuel Sanders and a returning Ryan Clady.  The defense that despite some overachieving performances had been called soft after the super bowl, had been retooled with additions of Bradley Roby, TJ Ward, Aqib Talib and Demarcus Ware.

The Broncos started the season well, opening 2 and 1 with wins against the Colts and Chiefs and a hard fought OT loss on the road against the Seahawks (who were in the midst of a 28-2 stretch at home.)  JT was off to a hot start with 5 TD catches in 3 games.

Continue reading Turning back the clock to October 2014