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Preliminary Thoughts On The Possible Proposed Changes To The CBA

Last evening, this cheat sheet by the NFLPA was released:

This sheet is crafted in quite the positive manner by the union, which gives off the impression that its leadership would like to convince the players to approve the new CBA. So keeping that in mind, let’s step through these bullet points.

Continue reading Preliminary Thoughts On The Possible Proposed Changes To The CBA

Steve Atwater Elected To The Pro Football Hall Of Fame

A Rule Change To The Compensatory Formula Could Impact 2020 Roster Decisions For The Broncos

Under John Elway, the Broncos have been one of the most aggressive teams in going after compensatory picks. One tactic they’ve used as part of that aggression is adding team options to contract years so that if they decline those options, the players that subsequently become free agents also qualify as compensatory free agents in their favor. This paid off the most for Denver when they got a 3rd round comp pick in 2018 for declining Russell Okung’s team option.

However, it appears that this edge that the Broncos. among only a few other teams, have used may be coming to an end. We at Over The Cap now believe that the NFL is clamping down on this loophole, and will no longer allow players with declined team options to qualify as CFAs.

Since the Broncos are regular users of this loophole, this could potentially impact several of their contracts. How they will be impacted is still of great question, but before we get there, let’s review the four contracts that have options on their 2020 years:

  • There’s not much to discuss with Von Miller. Elway has already said they’ll be picking up his option, and rightly so.
  • Brandon McManus also has an option coming up, but I see no reason why it wouldn’t also be exercised.
  • Todd Davis is a closer call as to whether his option will be exercised or not. In my road map, I very tenuously said it should be declined if the Broncos are going to be serious about upgrading at inside linebacker.
  • Ron Leary’s option is also a difficult decision. In that same road map, I advocated to exercise it if they do not retain Connor McGovern, and to decline it if they extend him.

While we at OTC believe that this rule has been changed, there is still some doubt about how the rule’s been changed. First, we don’t know for sure when the rule was changed. Our most reasonable guess is at the start of the 2019 league year, but that is not yet known for sure. Second, we do not know whether contracts that were signed before the rule change will be granted a grandfather clause by the compensatory formula.

If there is a grandfather clause, then the Broncos should be in the clear Leary’s option as far as comp pick credit goes, as his contract was signed way back in March of 2017. Davis, on the other hand, could be more problematic if our guess of the start of the 2019 league year is accurate. That’s because Davis was very briefly an unrestricted free agent at the start of the 2019 league year before ultimately agreeing to re-sign with the Broncos.

I would not be surprised if the Broncos have already been aware of this rule change. My speculation on this comes from the fact that of the three major free agents that the Broncos signed in 2019, only Ja’Wuan James’s contract had this sort of team option. I recall being surprised that a similar option was not in the final year of the contracts of either Kareem Jackson or Bryce Callahan.

Whatever the case may be, if they have not done so already, Elway and the Broncos should firmly request from the NFL Management Council a clarification on what the compensatory pick rules will be on their existing contracts. If it is true that Leary and Davis will not yield comp picks if their options are declined, then it may chance the Broncos’ strategy as to how they want to proceed with them.

For Davis, he is not owed any more guaranteed money. So if the Broncos want to keep him and his $5 million salary on the roster up to at least training camp as some insurance at inside linebacker, they can do so without having to make an earlier comp pick based decision. And as long as he stays healthy through training camp and the preseason, he could be cut as late as before Week 1 before CBA-wide guarantees via termination pay would kick in.

Most of these same rules apply to Leary, except that if his option is exercised, that means that he would get $1.5 million of his base salary fully guaranteed. However, that is not a huge price to pay if they want to keep him as insurance at the position yet ultimately cut him later. The bigger question, of course, is whether or not they deem his total $8.5 million in cash due in 2020 as a wise investment, regardless of comp pick implications.

Analysis of Nick’s 2020 Offseason Road Map

I finally completed my analysis of the Broncos roster and Nick’s offseason plan, and I wanted to share my thoughts. Because I agree with Nick on much of what he wrote in his 2020 Offseason Road Map, I felt presenting an analysis of his plan was the best approach. Before I start, a tremendous thank you to Nick for writing such an excellent piece.

I started off by putting all his moves into Depth Chart Form

My thoughts, position by position

  • It’s hard for me to get too excited about a veteran QB, and 7 million is a lot of cap space. I’ve spent a lot more time looking at the marginal starting QB landscape, so I have less of a feel for backup options, but I wouldn’t be opposed to looking for something cheaper here. Someone like Siemian for $2 million seems fine to me
  • I also find it hard to get excited about a backup RB. I think RB is a position that makes a lot of sense to fill with players on rookie contracts. For a veteran, I would prefer if they tried to limit the amount of guaranteed money they paid someone, so they could move on if they like what they find in the draft or UDFA. We were blessed with minimal injuries at the position, but Booker played only 26 offensive snaps. He did play 45% of ST snaps, which is something you probably won’t get with a veteran
  • WR is a tough one for me. I definitely see the benefit of adding a player as Nick suggests, but if the Broncos add a veteran and also take a WR high like many want to, the position gets crowded in a hurry. I think Sutton, Hamilton, the veteran WR, and the draft pick would all be locks to make the team. 1 of those 4 (at least) is probably not going to see much time on the field. On the backend, there would only be 1 or 2 roster spots left for Fred Brown, Tim Patrick, Dionte Spencer, and Juwann Winfree, and whatever other draft picks/UDFAs emerge. Fred Brown would probably be the first name fans would cross out, but he was the only player who contributed on Special Teams coverage units last year. For all these reasons, if the Broncos are as high on the WR draft class as other are, I would not be opposed for the Broncos to be picky at the veteran WR position, and ultimately pass if they can’t find what they like
  • TE there isn’t too much to write. This could be the position group we have no changes at, or it could be an option to target in mid-later rounds of the draft
  • OT is another tough one. Regarding Bolles, I will predict the Broncos do pick up the option, and I think that is the right call. The articles coming out from Broncos insiders defending him seem to be the team’s way of signaling this. I think Bolles is likely the type of player who will respond positively to the vote of confidence from management (and who would respond poorly to a vote of no confidence) and PFF thinks highly of him and he has shown improvement. Holding penalties are frustrating, but they are less damaging than sacks. I wish I had data on this, but I feel the risk of the injury only guarantee coming into play is quite small. It’s hard to know what to think about James after his rough 2019, but I think it’s an instance where the team has a lot more information than we do. If he can’t be counted on, that’s a huge hit to the team, because it means the Broncos either have to try to find someone in free agency (which has not worked out well with Stephenson, Watson, and now James) and will be very expensive, or reach in the draft for an offensive tackle, or roll with Wilkinson again. Needless to say, my fingers are crossed for James
  • For the interior of the offensive line, I wasn’t completely sure what Nick was suggesting for the third starter after Risner and either Leary/McGovern. Relying on Schlottman or Morris seems risky, but I am not opposed to trying to fill this spot with a rookie. This is an area I could see the Broncos wanting to spend more than Nick suggests to attempt to shore up the offensive line. Leary could also be a player they approach about a pay reduction. He’ll be 31 and given his injury history, I’m not sure he’ll get 8.5 million in free agency. Maybe go down to a 5 million dollar salary with the possibility to earn the difference back in return for guaranteeing 2-3 million? And while it would hurt their comp pick situation, maybe the Broncos wait and see how free agency and the draft go before deciding on Leary. Lots of options here
  • Defensive line depth I worry about for the Broncos. Especially if they bring Wolfe back rather than Shelby Harris due to his injury history. This is an area I think they’d need to focus on in the draft or consider an additional veteran backup. I also think there is a chance they bring back both Wolfe and Harris, especially if Wolfe is willing to take a team-friendly deal given his injury concerns.
  • I disagree with Nick and most others that the Broncos will/should bring back Jeremiah Attaochu. I think he is a good player, but if the Broncos draft an edge rusher in the early or middle rounds, Attachu will become expandable as the team will likely want to keep Reed especially when you consider the cost difference between the two. I think Attaochu and his agent will realize that, and either want a contract with some guaranteed money, or he’ll want to move to a team where he’ll have more roster security. 4 million also seems like a lot for the 4th edge rusher and especially when we are going to keep Von and Chubb on the field as much as possible.
  • I agree with Nick on ILB. They could bring Todd Davis back, but I like the opportunity to upgrade here
  • After resigning Simmons, I think Cornerback is the most important focus of the offseason. I love Chris Harris Jr, but his play did decline this year, and I wonder if the Broncos would be better looking elsewhere. As with Ja’wuan James, if Callahan comes back and can lock down the #2 CB position, it’ll do so much to help the defense and team. If we lock down the #1 and #2 CB positions, I think the depth here looks good and someone will step up to fill the #3 CB position.
  • It seems like everyone agrees Simmons should be the number one priority. I think there is some chance Will Parks ends up coming back on a team-friendly deal. I believe he likes playing here and on this defense, I’m not sure he’d get a chance to start elsewhere, and the Broncos don’t have much depth behind him if he leaves.
  • The Broncos signed Trevor Daniel, but I would still like them to draft a punter with a late pick. It seems to me that option has the most upside as rookie punters often come in and tear it up, would be the most cost-effective, and carries minimal risk given how many picks we have

If the Broncos don’t sign Attaochu and get a QB for $2 million rather than $7 million, that saves $9 million in cap space compared to Nick’s plan. No veteran WR or a cheaper WR has the potential to save up to an additional 10 million. No veteran RB or a cheaper option could also save 1-2.5 million as well. Options for using that additional cap space could include

  • Keeping Leary or adding another option on the offensive line (Nick did not account for an additional interior OL in his cap breakdown
  • Keeping both Wolfe and Harris or adding another depth piece on the Defensive Line
  • Going “over budget” on ILB or CB or any of the players they are hoping to resign
  • Rolled over for future years. With where they are in the development cycle, it might be smarter to give more young guys playing time and save cap space for future extensions and needs

Putting it all together my free agency priority list would be roughly as follows:

  1. Resign Simmons
  2. Cornerback (Chris Harris Jr or new #1)
  3. Interior Offensive Line (McGovern, possible additional competition for guard position opposite )
  4. Defensive Line (Wolfe/Harris, plus a possible depth signing)
  5. Inside Linebacker
  6. Veteran WR
  7. Veteran QB
  8. Veteran RB

A note on roster math

Going back up to the depth chart I started this piece off with, there’s a total of 38 players in the first three columns. Those players I feel would all be very likely to make the final roster. The players to the right in red were players who played at least some in 2019 and I think people would say they all have at least a chance to make the roster. There are 15 players in those columns, although three are not currently under contract, but they showed some promise and I believe could be back (Joel Heath, Joseph Jones, and Bausby).

  • 36 of the 38 players in the first three columns make the team
  • Nick’s comp projections are right and the Broncos don’t trade any of their picks
  • All 8 of their picks in the first 5 rounds make the team
  • 1 UDFA or futures contract player who isn’t on anyone’s radar makes the team
  • That leaves only 8 spots left for the 6 6th/7th round draft picks, the 15 players in red above, or any free agent additions not accounted for by Nick (I took away 1-3 of his, but added a couple of my own, making this essentially a wash)

8 spots for those 21+ players are not great odds. My takeaways from this are

  • A good reminder that there’s always high turnover on NFL rosters. There will be surprises. Players we believe should make the team aren’t going to make the team
  • With all the draft capital the Broncos have, I believe we should not be afraid to trade up and prioritize quality over quantity. Another less fun option is to trade for capital in next years draft
  • I believe there’s a chance the Broncos go less Free Agent heavy than either myself or Nick is suggesting. In addition to options discussed above, maybe they move on from Davis, but let Josey Jewell have a crack at the starting ILB spot. Maybe they don’t add a veteran QB and roll with a rookie they draft or Rypien as a backup.

2020 Broncos Offseason Road Map

2019 was ultimately another season of failure–once again, no playoffs, no winning record. While there is reason to hope that this skid could end in 2020, it’s clear that it must end soon. This type of consistent losing is very unusual in Denver, and does not meet the high expectations that the Broncos espouse, something that John Elway should know very well.

Here are my recommendations on how to improve the Broncos for 2020, with my annual offseason road map.

Continue reading 2020 Broncos Offseason Road Map