Author: Nick

I spent a lot of words talking about this last week, when more scenarios were open. But I made sure to bold the simplest and best path for the Broncos: “win out and one Patriots loss”.  Well, thanks to the Eagles, that one Patriots loss came earlier than we thought.  Coupled with the Broncos’ win at San Diego, Denver now controls their own destiny to the #1 seed.  Win out, including defeating the Bengals, and the path in the AFC goes through Denver.

The Broncos are going to be nowhere close to clinching that for a while, but they will have two paths available to get into the playoffs come Week 14:

Continue reading Broncos Playoff Standings: 2015 Week 14

This will certainly look familiar to those of you aware of the Broncos’ upcoming offseason obstacles:

Many outside of Denver did not know who Osweiler was going into the season. The fourth-year pro had thrown a total of 30 passes as Manning’s backup. Osweiler, Denver’s second-round pick in 2012, seemed destined to follow the path of many backups — a short-term deal for around $3.5 million a season with hopes to score a starting job in the future.

But two games into his starting career, visions of that type of contract are gone. […] Now, [the Broncos] probably see Osweiler as deserving of a contract similar to Nick Foles’ $12.2 million per year extension with the Rams.

Osweiler turns 26 in 2016, and if he finishes the year with a 6-1 or 5-2 record as a starter, he will have no reason to take that type of offer from Denver.

I’ll save my own detailed take for the end of the Broncos’ season.  That is because, as much as this has drastically changed in just three weeks, it could drastically change once again depending on future games.  As much as we don’t want it in the short term, if Osweiler throws up a couple of dud games and/or the Broncos go one and done in the playoffs, his value could easily cool back down to the Nick Foles range.

I do want to make a comment about Von Miller, however.  It’s clear that the Broncos would be best served to hammer out an extension with him sooner rather than later if they can model it close to the value of Justin Houston’s extension.  But if Jason is correct in that Miller can leverage his way into Ndamukong Suh money on the open market, the Broncos will have to take a long, hard look into how much is simply too much to retain Miller.

Now that we’re close enough to conduct reasonable projections, and Sunday night’s pivotal game against the Patriots is the books, I thought I’d take a look at what the Broncos need to obtain the best possible playoff seeding.  This is a mini-project that I might take on for the remainder of the regular season, depending on how things shape up.

Continue reading Broncos Playoff Standings: 2015 Week 13

It’s been an understandably quiet Thanksgiving week, but nonetheless here’s a quick roundup of what the attrition is looking like for tomorrow night.

For the Broncos, in addition to Peyton Manning DeMarcus Ware will miss another game due to his back spasms–certainly disappointing but at least it’s at a deep position. Evan Mathis is the only questionable, but again at least Max Garcia can cover when needed.

The Patriots’ list is more substantial. It does not even include Aaron Dobson, who was IRed earlier this week.  Jamie Collins listed as doubtful is notable as he recovers from his extended illness.

The biggest question through the week has been Danny Amendola, listed as questionable yesterday.  However, news is flying this morning that he, too, will miss this game:

Danny Amendola is out against the Broncos. In fact, not even traveling with the team. #WBZ

— STEVE BURTON (@STEVEBURTONWBZ) November 28, 2015

Via Andrew Mason on the team’s website:

Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning is expected to miss at least the next two weeks as he continues his recovery from a plantar fascia tear.

Following a Monday consultation with noted foot and ankle specialist Dr. Robert Anderson in Charlotte, N.C., it was recommended that Manning spend at least the next week in a walking cast. After the cast is removed, he will begin additional rehabilitation on his injured foot.

We’re all well aware that next week’s game is against the Patriots.  The game after that will be at San Diego.

Mason also adds that, as is typically the case with John Elway, you can never have too many quarterbacks–and they’re not going to expose themselves to possibly being forced to start rookie Trevor Siemian:

With Manning sidelined for multiple weeks, the Broncos will look to add depth at quarterback. The team is expected to work out former Minnesota Vikings starter Christian Ponder on Wednesday.

 

Brock Osweiler will make another start for the Broncos against the Patriots on Sunday night, per team sources. More on NFL Insiders, 2:30 ET

— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) November 23, 2015

This take isn’t nearly as hot as what he said about Peyton Manning last night, but it’s still hot enough to raise some eyebrows:

Per a source with knowledge of the situation, the Chiefs believe it would be an unfair advantage for both the Chargers and Raiders to have what amounts to an extra home game every year in the form of a road game. And it would be; both teams would have one less travel obligation per year, and that could indeed create a competitive advantage for those teams — along with a competitive disadvantage for the other two in the division.

The other team that would be equally impacted by this, of course, are the Broncos.  I’m skeptical that it would create that much of a competitive advantage, but there’s an easy way to solve such a problem: require that the Chargers and Raiders devote a home game overseas as a condition of moving to Los Angeles.  If that’s a condition that the Rams would balk at, then it just gives the Chargers and Raiders another advantage in squeezing the Rams out.

I’m also skeptical that realignment is needed for other cited reasons, mostly having to do with television.  Yes, CBS would get a double dose of the #2 media market, but the AFC contract is already significantly smaller by terms of media markets (the NFC would exclusively have the #3-#7 markets in this scenario), and getting Los Angeles twice would make things more even in that regard.  And thanks to the new addition of cross-flexing (first used in a Broncos game in fact, against the Vikings in 2011), it’s no longer mandatory that every AFC/AFC game has to be on CBS, thus the potential problem of the Chargers and Raiders airing on the same network can also be dealt with.

But if realignment must happen, then it better be the Chargers that get realigned, as the Raiders can’t leave the AFC West until the Broncos regain the head-to-head record over the Raiders.  But while that reason is selfish on my part, I think the Chiefs have their own selfish reasons in the race to Los Angeles.  If the Rams are the team that moves, that means that the Chiefs can get all of Missouri to themselves.  And while the Chiefs have one of the best local draws in the NFL, they aren’t exactly a big draw beyond the Kansas City metro area, so picking up more fans in the greater St. Louis area couldn’t hurt.

And for that matter, I would guess that the Broncos would favor the Rams in this battle, as well.  They have built a pretty decent following in Southern California, as the swaths of orange in the stands at San Diego demonstrates.  If a team has to move to Los Angeles, I’m sure they would much prefer that it’s not one or two division rivals that make that move.