This will certainly look familiar to those of you aware of the Broncos’ upcoming offseason obstacles:
Many outside of Denver did not know who Osweiler was going into the season. The fourth-year pro had thrown a total of 30 passes as Manning’s backup. Osweiler, Denver’s second-round pick in 2012, seemed destined to follow the path of many backups — a short-term deal for around $3.5 million a season with hopes to score a starting job in the future.
But two games into his starting career, visions of that type of contract are gone. […] Now, [the Broncos] probably see Osweiler as deserving of a contract similar to Nick Foles’ $12.2 million per year extension with the Rams.
Osweiler turns 26 in 2016, and if he finishes the year with a 6-1 or 5-2 record as a starter, he will have no reason to take that type of offer from Denver.
I’ll save my own detailed take for the end of the Broncos’ season. That is because, as much as this has drastically changed in just three weeks, it could drastically change once again depending on future games. As much as we don’t want it in the short term, if Osweiler throws up a couple of dud games and/or the Broncos go one and done in the playoffs, his value could easily cool back down to the Nick Foles range.
I do want to make a comment about Von Miller, however. It’s clear that the Broncos would be best served to hammer out an extension with him sooner rather than later if they can model it close to the value of Justin Houston’s extension. But if Jason is correct in that Miller can leverage his way into Ndamukong Suh money on the open market, the Broncos will have to take a long, hard look into how much is simply too much to retain Miller.