It’s All Orange, Fat Man: 03/28/16

NFL News

– Tampa Bay HC Dick Koetter stated at the league meetings he expects QB Jameis Winston to win games for them.

–  Pittsburgh Steelers CB Brandon Boykin is visiting the Carolina Panthers today.

– According to Mike Florio, 10% of the of Robert Griffin’s salary is tied to being on the game day roster.

– The loss was so disappointing for the Panthers that their GM Dave Gettleman still hasn’t watched it.

– WR Jeremy Kerley didn’t think the Jets coaches used him right and thinks the Lions won’t make the same ‘error’.

– CB Josh Norman is seeking a $16 million a year payday.

– Auburn CB Johnathan Jones will visit the Steelers and says that he patterns his game after one CB Brent Grimes.

– Broncos S Omar Bolden will meet with the Chicago Bears.

– Rex Ryan hopes that the Jets lose QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in free agency.

NFL Analysis

– Matt Bowen wrote an article a little while ago about how coaches will take advantage of the new kickoff rule.

– One of Chase Start’s friends breaks down the YPC leaders at 100/125/150 carries.

– Will Brinson argues that the Rams are setting up to “get” a QB in the draft.

– Peter King writes his reaction to the signing of RGIII and the NFL’s reaction to the concussion story last week.

– Eric Edholm breaks down QB Dak Prescott.

– According to Jarrett Bell, Hue Jackson should play a large role for RGIII in Cleveland.

– One writer comments the Packers don’t like overspending for free agents and all their moves are calculated.

Broncos

– Mike Klis states that the Broncos took a pass on RGIII because of character concerns.

Shenanigans

Odell Beckham Jr. and Josh Norman are still fighting.

– A Minnesota fan was so appalled and “couldn’t read past the title” when he saw a picture in the newspaper of a worker installing the nets at the new Target Field, wearing a Green Bay hat. He responded by writing a small letter to the paper.

Johnny Manziel is back in Las Vegas after striking out in free agency.

Preach!

“Mental toughness is the ability to be comfortable with discomfort.” – Anonymous

Published by

Dubs

I am a film coordinator for a FCS school. I am glad to be around the game of football and had the chance to learn from a lot of great people. I wouldn't be where I am without the gracious support of my family, coaches, assistants, and players. I also greatly appreciate you guys who take the time to read my stuff and show genuine appreciation. It means a ton! You guys are awesome! Twitter Handle: @FBDubs

  • iowabronco

    Do we sign Omar or let him go to the Broncos JV team in Chicago?

    • T. Jensen

      i’d like to keep him but like all of our FA’s I don’t want to over pay for him. I think between him and Norwood we should be safe on our returns and we do need safety depth.

    • Lonestar47

      I suspect he is gone. I really liked him for if nothing else his ST play. He may have a real chance of playing for Broncos east NFC. They are so pathetic that he would have a chance there.

  • Lonestar47

    On the kick off rule, I see it as we will still kick it thru the EZ especially when their return guy or special teams is really SPECIAL. Other than that we still have the pop it up to the five yard line as an option.

    BM still has that strong leg for long FGs. Since he worked hard on FG accuracy after his first year here now he can work hard on this project.

  • Meanwhile, the Saints keep signing free agents, despite pushing up against the cap limit.

    https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/714445873095319552

    Over the Cap estimates the Saints are $810,000 under the cap, so they must be doing a lot of contract restructuring. In other words, they are punting cap hits down the road all while believing they are just a few players away from another playoff run.

    • cjfarls

      If they can push it for 2 or 3 years, Brees will retire… then they can “suck for Luck” for a year or 2, clear all the dead money, and start over.
      Won’t be a fun few years, but as long as Brees is viable, its not totally insane. It would make more sense if the rest of the roster was better, but a great QB covers a lot of sins.

      • MattR

        Yeah. They are stuck between a rock and a hard place. I don’t think they have a Super Bowl quality team (though I also learned to never say never) so it seems like a poor gamble to try to play for this year at the expense of the future. But OTOH, there is little point of going into rebuilding mode if you are going to lose your franchise QB right as the rebuilding is complete. So I can understand why the Saints would continue to “go for it” even though the odds are against them.

        • Yahmule

          Also, Payton and Loomis know they personally have little to lose since they’re both hanging by a thread.

          • Interestingly, Payton signed a five-year extension, but the question is how much of that decision rested on Loomis. Last I checked, the ownership situation is still a mess, given Tom Benson’s health issues and the infighting among his family members.

          • Yahmule

            I didn’t realize they extended him. He’s pretty resilient.

    • Nick

      I’d think Cam Jordan would be next up on the restructure train. Things are so bad for the Saints that it’s believed they can’t afford to even use a June 1 designation on Brandon Browner now–they have to actually wait until June 1 to make that move.

      • MattR

        How does that work? I thought if you cut someone with a June 1 designation they stayed on the cap until that date (essentially the same as if you actually waited until June 1 to cut them). The only real difference is that the player is free to look for a new team before June 1.

        • Nick

          I may have been wrong on Browner specifically as I think Jason entered a different number in the database than what the code is calculating. But if it costs more against the cap to cut a player than to keep him, then it’s entirely feasible for a team to have to actually wait until June 1 to process the transaction.

          • MattR

            But if you cut someone with a June 1 designation, I don’t see how that can cost more to do that than it would to keep the player since the June 1 designation means that only the proration for this year is counted against this year’s cap (which it was already going to be) and any future prorations are pushed off to next year. So the cost of a June 1 cut (this year’s proration) has to be less than the cost to keep the player (this year’s proration plus salary and bonuses). When the team processes the transaction does not affect that.

          • Nick

            But the savings from a June 1 designation can’t be realized until after June 1. Before then, they have to carry the cap hit like a normal cut.

          • MattR

            I don’t think that is right. Let’s assume a player signed a 4 year deal in 2015 with a 12 million signing bonus which is prorated to 3 million a year for cap purposes and a 2 million dollar salary in each year (leading to a cap hit of 5 million each year). If the team cuts the player today with a June 1 designation, the team does not an take an immediate 9 million cap hit from the dead money on the contract. Instead the “scheduled” 5 million hit stays on the books until June 1 at which point the transaction is processed and the team takes a 3 million cap hit this year (for a 2 million savings) and a 6 million cap hit next year.

          • Nick

            I’ll double check with Jason on that to make sure. If I am wrong, then my calculator is also screwed up.

          • MattR

            While you are talking to him, I also had a question about DT’s dead money. It looks like you are including the 4 million option bonus that is due in 2017 as dead money if he is cut this year, but my understanding is that the bonus only gets paid if Denver wants to keep him on the roster for 2018 and 2019 so I would think it would not count as dead money at this point (because Denver has not paid it yet and have no obligation to do so if they cut him tomorrow – unlike his guaranteed salaries for 2016 and 2017).

          • Nick

            That’s a tricky one to represent programmatically. We wanted to illustrate that if the option is picked up, it would be prorated against the future years instead of just one lump sum due against the cap at once. Technically speaking, that’s what DT’s numbers would look like if the entirety of the contract is processed as is.

    • Laces Out

      That’s a major overhaul waiting to happen and they just gave Payton 5 more years to see it through

  • Lonestar47

    Btw. That moron that now expects that Winston “will win games”, if that was not the expectation up front why would you pick him number one?

    That comment was so stupid I did not even click on it to waste my time reading it.

    NO ONE except perhaps that franchise would expend The first pick on a player that was not a game changer.

  • Chiefs safety Husein Abdullah is retiring. He posted on Instagram that he is getting out after suffering his fifth concussion. Link below.

    http://blacksportsonline.com/home/2016/03/chiefs-husain-abdullah-announces-retirement-on-ig-says-concussions-1-reason/

  • RSH, Esq.
    • Urgh, don’t want to see him in NE. Seems he’s only good for limited snaps per game, but he makes plays, especially vs. the run.

      • Laces Out

        And on 4th down in the passing game on the QB to get toy a SB berth : )

  • Thought this was the most interesting line from the Renck article linked here on Sat., in reference to the Broncos final offer to Os of four years, $64-million with more than $30 million guaranteed:

    They took a deep breath, relieved Osweiler didn’t say yes to an amount the Broncos were not comfortable reaching for a quarterback with seven career starts.

    • GrizzlyB

      I’ve always thought that offer was dubious. I’ve seen it cited by Texans fans who are basking in “stealing” Brent (“See! Why would John Elway pay that much money to a guy he doesn’t really want?”), but given the misrepresentation of the first offer (3 years and $45 million, then down to $39 million) and the fact that I sure don’t remember hearing about this offer until well after he was gone, it’s hard to think it was a legitimate offer (whether it was actually there, what the real numbers were, if it wasn’t “offered” until after he had signed, etc.).

    • drewthorn

      I’m glad somebody brought that up. It’s as likely as any other speculation that we try to make that Denver knew exactly what they were doing when they slow-played Oz. I base this on my undying confidence that Oz did not lose his job based on impulsive gut feelings or internal Manning sentimentality. I suspect that Oz made a mistake or a cluster of mistakes one too many times, and that was that. I’m surprised that more wasn’t made of Kubiak’s increasingly icey attitude towards Oz on the sidelines those last couple of games.

      Even the Denver Broncos, in the heart of Broncos Country, have to attend to public relations to a certain degree. They had to ‘try’ to keep Oz around, but try hard enough they ultimately refused to do. A low ball offer is still a low ball offer by any impressive amount.

      • Rhett Rothberg

        I still think what happened is that the Broncos assumed some things that they probably shouldn’t have….if their objective was to keep him around, which I do think it was.

        Again, they had multiple opportunities to extend/sign this guy… And for anyone who says, well, he never would have signed early….I give you exhibit A – Derek Wolfe and Exhibit B – Chris Harris…both who signed extensions mid-season.

        Now, i’m not sure why Elway went this route, but by all appearances, they pretty much felt that they didn’t have to do much to re-sign Oz. Just make him a good offer and he’ll be falling all over himself to stay in Denver…

        Well, the hand was misplayed…and you’re going into the season with Mark Sanchez as your guy…

        Does that mean they should’ve paid Oz $18M? Of course not, it means that it never should have gotten there…. oops.

    • Laces Out

      Also noted that one. Good catch

  • Nick
    • InSiemianWeTrust

      Betcha they don’t lose the auction to us this time.

      • RSH, Esq.

        And the Broncos definitely will not and do not want to win a bidding war for Foster.

        • InSiemianWeTrust

          Yep, exactly.

        • Laces Out

          If Kubiak didn’t want him then nobody should

  • RSH, Esq.
    • Yahmule

      A Ted Thompson free agent signing!

      Now he’s all, “This will shut up Aaron and those pleading fans.”

      • Nick

        But in true Ted Thompson fashion, Cook was a street free agent via being cut from the Rams, so he won’t count against the (meager) compensatory picks the Packers have racked up. Thompson still hasn’t signed a UFA in 4 years, and considering that the last one he signed was a completely washed up Jeff Saturday that cost him a 5th round comp pick, it’s tough to blame him.

        • Yahmule

          I blame him. That’s like getting a bad meal at a one star restaurant and swearing off dining out entirely.

      • Laces Out

        Could be a steal. ..

        Thompson doesn’t hit on Rodgers, he’d be an after thought

    • RSH, Esq.
  • RSH, Esq.

    This is a great signing for the Panthers. Brandon Boykin is an excellent third cornerback.

    https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/714487438786166784

    • Nick

      I agree, Boykin’s yet another player that got unlucky in being caught in Chip Kelly’s Wild Ride.

  • RSH, Esq.
    • Yahmule

      No amount of money would make me want to play for an asshole who says shit like this:

      “I believe this: that the game has always been a risk, you know, and the way certain people are. Look at it. You take an aspirin, I take an aspirin, it might give you extreme side effects of illness and your body … may reject it, where I would be fine. So there is so much we don’t know.”

      • Laces Out

        You know the doesn’t give you sunburns either. ..only some people…

        What was the old IAOFM headline:

        Ir$ay thinks you’re stupid

        The piper will come a calling eventually after its all flag football to these owners

    • The best point Barnwell raises is that the Colts have failed to do a good job of drafting the past three years. That needs to be fixed or Luck will definitely enter the same situation Peyton Manning was in for the last few years with the Colts.

      • Yahmule

        He needs to smarten up, too. He was already playing injured when he decided to go mano a mano with Danny Trevathan.

    • Laces Out

      Elway what! ?

  • So no word yet on how much the Broncos are giving Jordan Norwood in the one-year deal he says he agreed to, but the veteran minimum for a player with his accrued seasons is $760,000. It’s possible he’s getting slightly more than that, but it should be a low-cost signing regardless. And, no, I don’t think signing him is any strike against the younger WRs on the roster; they likely want somebody who has experience with punt returns.

    • SterlingMalloryArcher

      And in the slot.

  • Nick

    Those of you who aren’t a fan of uttering the Washington Redskins’ full name may get a chuckle out of this bot that retweeted one of my comp pick updates:

    https://twitter.com/BitterTearsBot/status/714458928541736961

    • SterlingMalloryArcher

      Neither here nor there, but I wanted to let you know local talking head Darren McKee (D Mac) mentioned Over the Cap on the radio last week during his afternoon drive time show with Alfred Williams. I don’t listen all that often, but they are the top rated show in the city so hopefully it got you guys a few clicks. I’d been linking the site (OTC) in texts I sent to them whenever they said something ridiculous about a contract, so I was hoping they’d catch on eventually. Anyway, keep up the good work.

      • Yahmule

        Sterling, you can lead media whores to water, but you can’t make them think.

      • Kyle Milligan

        They could stand to read the site more… as would most of the sports talk crowd.

      • Nick

        Thank you!

  • Kyle Milligan

    “Hey, even kick it to the corner and give yourself a bigger advantage. Nowhere to hide there. Let’s go.”

    Thatcquote from Matt Bowen – has the rule changed where it is now legal to kick a kickoff out of bounds?

    From my Madden days, I remember the ball bei spotted at some ridiculous yard line close to midfield when I would let a kickoff go out of bounds before reaching the endzone

    • Jeremy

      It’s the 40 yard line. And it’s a risk if you aim for the corners, because you don’t know how the ball will bounce.

    • MattR

      The penalty for a kickoff out of bounds is that the receiving team gets the ball where it went out of bounds or 25 yards from the spot of the kickoff, whichever is better. Prior to 2011, kickoffs were from the 30 which meant the penalty spotted the ball at the 45 (which was a 25 yard difference from a touchback). In 2011 they moved the kickoff to the 35 so the penalty spots the ball at the 40. That is only a 15 yard penalty with the new touchback to the 25 yard line which makes the risk significantly less than it was 5 years ago. Also, if there is a 15 yard penalty on the TD so they are kicking off at the 50, then there is now no difference between a touchback and a kick that goes out of bounds inside the 25.

  • SterlingMalloryArcher

    Just a note on the draft potential picks for Denver. Here’s an example of why I always take Walter Football’s opinions and rumors of interest with a grain of salt. For Denver’s second round pick, they’re currently predicting CB Will Redmond from Mississippi State, providing the following reasoning:

    “A cornerback is an option for the Broncos in the first couple of rounds. Aqib Talib is a suspension waiting to happen, while Bradley Roby may move to safety sometime soon.”

    No, it isn’t. I know we could pretty easily find examples of all draftniks’ inaccuracy, but at least some of them seem to grasp the current state of teams’ rosters when when formulating their guesses. I’m not sure that’s the case at WF. That’s also why I don’t entirely buy into their reports of the Broncos’ love for Dak Prescott.

    http://walterfootball.com/draft2016_2.php

    • T. Jensen

      maybe he thinks with the eye poking and the new rule changes Talib will get ejected a lot next year????

    • MattR

      Heh. I noticed that same thing a couple days ago. IMO, Walter has a bit of a problem separating his speculation from fact. He also has a problem with not re-evaluating his conclusions about players/coaches/teams to see if they still hold true months or years later (which to be fair is one of my biggest gambling weaknesses as well)

      • Nick

        It’s also incredibly difficult to get the entire picture for all 32 teams. I’m not sure what team (if any) Walter roots for, but I know I can struggle with some of the minute details for teams other than the Broncos.

        • MattR

          Definitely true and I am a lot more forgiving when it comes to omissions. I can understand forgetting that a player has been suspended before or that a team has depth at a position to replace a departing free agent. But I also think that is different from many of Walter’s statements which imply a level of research and knowledge about the team and/or its players. As a hypothetical example, there is a difference between not knowing about Shaq Barrett as a rotational pass rusher who could replace D Ware and saying that Denver needs to draft a pass rusher because Shaq Barrett is no good.

        • SterlingMalloryArcher

          I agree. I think he’s a little too ambitious, but he makes a living off of that website so his approach appears to be working. Ideally he’d have a large enough staff to dive deep into all 32 teams, but in fairness accuracy might not be a high priority for him.

        • I think Walter has made up his mind about certain teams based on their history. In a few cases, he’s been correct to call them on their mistakes, but sometimes he judges things based entirely on their history and assume it’s history repeating itself.

          I’ve made that mistake myself at times… case in point when the Cowboys drafted Tyler Frederick in the first round. Turns out the Cowboys not only made the right call, but Stephen Jones’ influence on draft picks and salary cap management were becoming more prominent. Now I can see that the Cowboys are doing a better job with roster management.

          But I can recognize good roster moves regardless of teams, whereas Walter Football sometimes falls into the trap of criticizing any such move an historically bad franchise makes, regardless of what it is.

          • Nick

            Almost everyone criticized the Cowboys on the Frederick pick, and to be honest they probably still reached to get him, but sometimes you can reach for a player that turns out well.

      • Yahmule

        One thing I learned from sports gambling and roto baseball is just how fluid things can be. What appear to be core principles often wind up being exposed as trends. The trick is to be ahead of the curve, but not too far ahead.

    • Royalwithcheese

      The Broncos are bringing him in for a formal visit: http://www.nfl.com/labs/rr/pathtothedraft/prescott?sf23160344=1.

      Doesn’t mean they’ll take him, but it does lend credence to the rumors that they like him.

      • SterlingMalloryArcher

        It’s certainly possible that they do, but it could also be chalked up to due diligence with respect to a position of need.

    • drewthorn

      I’ve never viewed Walterfootball as being anything more than a less blatant and more cynical aggregater of conventional wisdom along the lines of Mike Florio and PFT. True, conventional wisdom is spot on about 90% of the time, but it also loses the all important nuance necessary to address specific situations. Walter, himself, has never been able to overcome his own fan like personal biases and grudges against certain concepts, franchises and personalities, so he has never established to me the right degree of objectivity to be taken all that seriously.

      I’m really sort of surprised that a demonstrated intellectually oriented fan like yourself is drawn to that site at all.

      • Nick

        What keeps me peeking at his website (though not regularly) is that he does write very humorously, and I think that’s why it remains a good draw. I do admit getting a chuckle over whatever new “Millen grade” he gives to terrible front office moves.

        • Yeah, the “Millen grades” can be pretty funny, and generally speaking, he’s correct to call out the bad deals. There are times, though, that he hands out poor grades to deals that really don’t have much risk beyond the first year of the deal, or even pose zero risk at all when you look closer at them. Like many “conventional wisdom” sites, they don’t understand that the details of the contract matter more than the total amount of money.

      • SterlingMalloryArcher

        I’m not really drawn to it, per se, but I read just about everything that is draft related. I dismiss some of it outright, but I try to gather as much information as possible.

      • The Color Orange

        Their reporting on which prospects teams have visited with is legit.

        • GrizzlyB

          Literally the only reason to visit the site.

    • Jeremy

      Unfortunately, Talib will be on the list of possible cap casualties every year now. Starting in 2017 he has potential cap savings of 10 mil, 11 mil, and 8 mil. He’s already 30, and having a replacement for him would be nice. Even a late 2nd round picks don’t usually come in and start their rookie year for us. A 2nd rounder who played special teams and was a solid 4th CB would be nice to have.

      This is why I don’t get into draft hype. Impossible to confirm or deny any draft rumor, and I don’t have any interest in learning about hundreds of prospects. Once we draft our guys I’ll get excited about them.

      • SterlingMalloryArcher

        Yeah, Talib’s contract was set up to give the team an out at any point from now until it expires, so I’m aware of that possibility. But I don’t think that’s justification for selecting a CB early in this year’s draft. Are they really going to bury their 2nd round pick behind Talib, Harris, Roby and maybe even Kayvon Webster when there’s several more substantial needs to be met? I know they did that last year with Shane Ray, but I have to think Elway would prefer to avoid that situation again.

        • MattR

          OTOH, if you don’t think Webster is worth keeping when his contract is up (or at least not for his CB play) and you think Talib only has a year or two left before his body degrades then taking a CB relatively high in the draft with the intent to groom him for 2017 is not an unreasonable decision. However, that wasn’t close to Walter’s reasoning for projecting the Broncos to take a CB.

        • Jeremy

          I agree with most of what you said. But Webster played hardly any cb last year. He only had one game where he played more than 11 defensive snaps. Most were in the 3-4 range

          • SterlingMalloryArcher

            I think at least some of that is attributable to the good health and exceptional talent that is ahead of him on the depth chart, but I doubt the Broncos view Webster as anything more than a depth CB and a key special teams contributor. They will need to add some more talent to the position eventually, but I don’t believe that time is now. They could throw a late round pick at a CB like they did with Lorenzo Doss and Taurean Nixon last year. But if they like Doss at all they’re already 5-deep at the position, making it pretty unlikely that a later pick would make the roster.

          • Jeremy

            You are right. I didn’t realize how healthy the CBs Stayed (Harris, Talib and Roby only missed one game) and how infrequently we had 4 CBs on the field (I guess our dime packages just added a safety). Doss only played 3 Defensive snaps, and no one else went in a CB, so I guess Webster locked the position down more than I thought.

          • SterlingMalloryArcher

            I was going to mention the frequent use of 3 safeties, because that was definitely a factor as well. But unless they add some quality depth behind Stewart and Ward I don’t think we’ll see as much of that next year. As it stands I think the dime package will feature a 4th CB more often than a 3rd S in 2017.

    • Walter Football is a good resource site but it’s not a site I go to for a serious take on how players fit into a scheme. For example: Walter Football still stands by their claim that Von Miller was being wasted in a 4-3 scheme when the truth is he is a talent who is good at just about everything and could adapt to almost any scheme. It may be true that pass rushing is his strongest area but he’s no slouch at run defense and coverage. That Walter Football seemingly wants to typecast him as a pure 3-4 pass rusher tells me they don’t really look at the finer points of the game.

      And, yeah, Talib’s contract may be the one the Broncos can get out of easily after next year, but there’s no guarantee he will be cut as long as he keeps playing at a high level. And there’s no chance of moving Bradley Roby to safety… if anything, he’s in line to become the No. 2 cornerback. If he keeps progressing the way he has, the Broncos will pick up the fifth-year option on his rookie deal and that’s as good a time as any to officially make him the No. 2 cornerback.

    • Laces Out

      Thank you for saving me the time!

  • drewthorn

    I’m predicting right now that Gettleman’s Panthers will “surprise everybody” by being completely average or worse in 2016. I’m as guilty as anybody in swallowing the 2015 hype, but I think careful examination reveals a flawed team, clinging to old ideas, that benefited greatly from an easy schedule and career years from a lot of players.

    • Yahmule

      That front four plus Keuchly is really outstanding. They’re also getting Kelvin Benjamin back on offense. I’ll be very surprised if they don’t at least win that division next year.

  • Rhett Rothberg

    Random observation vis-a-vis the QB’s in this years draft: You’d think this years draft is a once in a millennium chance where the moon aligns correctly with an ancient crystal and reveals a set of QB’s… This years QB class, other than Wentz, are all back-ups…if they’re lucky. I mean, they do hold a draft next year too! And there may even be QB’s in it! And they might even be better than the ones this year!

    It’s just funny how the QB’s are over analyzed…if I can’t get Wentz, and I’m a team that needs a QB (hurrumph….Broncos), I’d take a pass, draft a player that is actually good, and see what comes down the pike next year…

    • SterlingMalloryArcher

      The problem is they’re almost never ready to play right away, and there’s no guarantee any of them will ever pan out. So if they wait to take one next year, then you’re looking at probabably at least 2018 before you have a young guy to take over. So that’s 2 years of Sanchez or similar. And then what if that 2017 draft pick doesn’t pan out? Then you’ve got to take one in 2018 and hope he’s ready by 2019 or so.

      So I say they start now and get that development / is this guy worth a shit clock ticking.

      That said if they don’t get one of the top 3 then I agree they’re drafting at best a career backup so they should wait until next year.

      • Rhett Rothberg

        Well, this is why you push hard for Kaepernick… Then, worst case, you “draft” him with your 2nd rounder and have a good idea what you’re getting.

        I don’t buy Goff or Lynch ever being much of anything… Goff, I don’t know, maybe… Lynch, nope….

        I also don’t buy “development” to be honest with you… I have a hard time thinking of a QB, who is worth much of anything, who “got developed”. A guy who came out of nowhere, got processed by coaching and all of a sudden became worth having…

        Brady and maybe Romo, are examples, but that’s 2 out of the last 15 years. Maybe Cousins….and I’d argue you could see Russell Wilson coming and he was way undewrdrafted due to him having a weird college career. Being conservative, that’s 4 QB’s who “got developed”…

        Now, there’s certainly a “growth” period, but that’s more of polishing the diamond. You know it’s a diamond, it just needs to be shined up a bit. But taking some random rock and turning it into a diamond….doesnt happen..

        That’s why guys like Cardale Jones, Dak Prescott….not going to be anything either… Don’t have it, or won’t have it anywhere near soon enough to matter…

        If you’re making a QB transition in this league you have three options: journeyman who you know is just gonna be meh, get a hold of a known quantity or draft a “Luck-type”… Everything else is a waste of time.

        • Jeremy

          I’m curious, where did Oz fit on this list for you? He certainly wasn’t a “Luck-type”, and you don’t seem to think QBs get better on the bench “developing” so it would seem you wouldn’t have been as high on him as you would have.

          Brees took quite a while to develop. Aaron Rodgers took a while and was found late in the first round. But you are right, the odds of success on any mid-late round QB is very low.

          But on the same token, Kap was a 2nd round pick. And most great QBs weren’t benched for Bortles early in their career. So the odds of Kap succeeding aren’t a given either, and the cost is much higher.

          • Rhett Rothberg

            As far as Oz goes, again, I don’t think he’s an $18M guy. I don’t think he is a Luck-type. But he was at a pretty high level. He could be polished….not completely developed. But, as noted, Elway bungled it with Oz and he’s gone. Don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t necessarily an Oz guy, but looking at it more from the “bird in the hand…” standpoint…

            I sound like an apologist, I get it, but I really discount last year for Kap… Niners were a train wreck… So to say he was benched for Gabbert (I think you mean) is not completely fair… Joke of a coaching staff for a joke of an organization… When he had good coaching and a good team around him, 50 TD, 20 INT, Super Bowl, NFC Champ… I’ll sign up for that with my 2nd round pick, thanks….

          • ohiobronco

            If you believe Kap is a legit starter he is the bargain of the offseason. If you believe he is iffy (what the evidence shows hence why he is available) than he is a bigger risk than an iffy draft pick because he not only costs a pick but is also on the vet pay scale. There’s a legit chance he could rebound in a better situation but the cost needs to match the odds. I’d be more comfortable if the cost was more in line with what RG3 cost the Browns.

          • Rhett Rothberg

            I’d actually say he is a much lower risk option than any draft pick. Further, he’s pretty cheap as far as Super Bowl pedigree QB’s go. And, even if he were to flame out, you can cut him fairly easily after each year….kind of like the 49ers were (supposedly, before the injury stuff) able to do this year…

            As far as the evidence goes, again, 2012 – 2014, the guy had 50 TD, 21 INT and a 4-2 playoff record. Not bad. Down year last year, but he had a horrible coach, a horrible team around him and a horrible organization employing him…

          • ohiobronco

            If you are certain he is the 2012-2013 player you snap him up without hesitation at the 9ers asking price and his current contract. From the way the process is playing out it looks like nobody is at that point.

          • Rhett Rothberg

            …and I fear Elway is trying to be too clever for his own good.

          • ohiobronco

            The slow play strategy hasn’t failed him yet. Oh wait.

          • Rhett Rothberg

            Yup, I get it… There’s time… But the clock is ticking!

          • Rhett Rothberg

            I’ll say this too…

            If I told you there was a nameless QB who:

            – took a team to a SB, a conf champ the next year
            – had 50 TD, 20 INT (in a three year stretch)
            – a 4-2 playoff record since 2012 (Note: PM was 5-3 in the same period – much worse before this year)
            – was a 60% passer
            – had 8 4th quarter comebacks (to Manning’s 10) since 2012 and,
            – that he was under a team friendly, year to year contract that paid him less than Oz and Tannehill (for comparison)

            What then? Now, this is all a bit of speculation, as it may not matter in the end depending on what the 49ers do, but if all it took was a 2nd round pick (also known as the round of such infamous Broncos as: Alphonso Smith, Richard Quinn, Cody Latimer, Montee Ball, Darcel McBath, Tim Crowder…), you don’t pull that trigger in a heartbeat?

            Again, am I missing something?

          • Jeremy

            You make a good argument, and you’ve swayed me more in favor of the move. But the problem is pick any QB stat you want (rating, QBR, Y/A, Y/G, TDs, INTs, etc), and Kap showed a consistent decline every year. It’s easy to blame that on the organization, but to me, that seems like a complete scapegoat. I don’t follow team outside of the Broncos anywhere near as close, but what exactly where the issues that lead to such a decline? Their GM/Owner was dumb and they lost a bunch of players, but how much should that affect their QB? He lost his coach, and he lost a couple targets, but again, I can’t see how that justifies such a steep decline.

            To me I would have to think it’s more chalked up to success before you are a known commodity and before defenses figured you out. Again, I haven’t followed his career, so If someone has more explanations I’d be all ears.

            Maybe a new coaching staff, scheme and supporting cast will allow a complete 180, but it’s a risk.

          • Rhett Rothberg

            Fair enough… I just see that he had good coaching and excelled. Then, the Niners run his coach out and he had some issues with how they handled his injuries this year and all of a sudden he’s a “bad locker room guy”…

            The O-line last year was derided as awful… That got Manning off the hook, should get Kap off, right?

            I do get the point on being “figured out”…

            But I just think, again, this guy is a really good fit for what the Broncos want to do. If we were trying to run the classic Manning, read everything, super accuracy thing, then no.

            But get Kap out on bootlegs with a few quick reads….seems good to me.

          • Jeremy

            Hold up. Manning did not get off the hook (in your book) because of a bad Oline. You wrote comment after comment about how horrible Manning was and how he should be benched, and didn’t buy a single excuse.

            And Kap declined significantly in 2014 off 2012 levels when Harbaugh and most of his offensive weapons were still there.

          • Rhett Rothberg

            I did indeed… Not exactly apples to oranges, but I can parse it.

            So, Manning was at the end of his rope. There was no going up… He was done, finished… And every snap he took was one more step toward QB turmoil (and a SB win, granted, but here we are) which has manifested itself exactly as predicted… I never questioned Manning as a great QB for his career or as a great Bronco. I was stating that he didn’t really have any business starting last year….and he didn’t, he was awful. But there was a lot of, “his o-line was bad” talk. It was, but so was he…

            Now, as I’ve stated, I’ve yet to see Kap walk on water, so I’m not calling him the second coming. I am saying there is another rare opportunity to get a guy with established pedigree, for a measly 2nd round pick (which also as stated is vastly overrated in importance….amiright, Richard Quinn?) who would be a great fit in this offense, in this organization with this coaching staff.

            Now as to 2014, yes, it was a down year. Go check John Elway in 1992. He sucked too…then had his best yardage passing year ever in 1993. It happens. If the verdict is out on Kap, fine…(it’s not, but fine).

            But the guy was efficient (60%) passer, not turnover prone (only 10 INT in that 2014 season) and has played at high levels…

            Again, not the second coming, but how is spending (at worst) a 2nd round pick on him not clearly a better option then spending a first on (heaven help us) Paxton Lynch… A guy who, by all admissions, is severely under experienced as a QB and wasn’t even allowed to make blitz reads at Memphis… No thanks….

            And then beyond that, well, I’ve covered that….pointless

          • Jeremy

            1) I find it funny, but really quite sad how you keep bringing up the super bowl win. “Well we did win the super bowl, but…” I know, I know, you’re just being a realist, but you know as well as anyone that might not come around for another 20 years so might as well enjoy it while it lasts. (And for the record, you never predicted a Manning return, or a Super Bowl win)

            2) 60% completion percentage was only good for 24th in 2014, so I wouldn’t call that efficient. Peyton Manning had a 62.3% completion percentage entering the chiefs game (ended the year with 59.8%) and you have repeatedly categorized his play as awful, not efficient. (although for the record, I think he played much closer to efficient, than awful, especially upon his return).

            3) I may be in the minority here, but I actually think Sanchez could be good enough, and there is no need to bring in another expensive QB. I could cherry pick his stats as well, he has just as good of a playoff record, he had success leading a team with a strong running game and defense (like Kap), there are no work ethic or character concerns, and he is a fraction of the cost both in terms of $$ and draft picks.

          • Rhett Rothberg

            I like a good bulleted response, keeps points ordered!
            1) What is TRULY sad, from a real, grounded perspective, is that we all spend time talking about this. But we do it because it’s entertaining, not because it matters. Because NFL football doesn’t matter…except for the fact we derive entertainment from it. Not because the rise and fall of nation states, or the quality of life of a child in Indonesia, depends upon anything that happens on the field.

            So, to be a little less facetious and to your point, I have enjoyed the Super Bowl run. And no, I didn’t predict it… so…. I also enjoy parsing the moves of the GM, everyone else does too… so….

            2) 60% is pretty good… It’s a good baseline for a competent NFL passer. Sanchez is below 60%…. Manning was bad because of the turnovers and general inability to move the team, though as you point out, he was less awful late in the year. Kaepernick is pretty good with the turnovers actually (Note: Sanchez is brutal in that category)

            3) I think Sanchez could be serviceable, but as noted above, he has to fix the turnover thing. Compare his INT stats to Kaps…. It’s enlightening…

          • Jeremy

            It’s interesting, I read a lot of the comments on both reddit and PFT, and everyone there said that Kap was barely worth a 7th, that Kap never stood any real chance of being traded, and that these were just unsubstantiated rumors propagated by the media. That stands in stark contrast to people here who want to move a 2nd or 3rd for him.

            I think fans are typically horrible at judging trade value, so I won’t put too much into what either side is saying. When word came out that we would trade Tebow people talked on IAOFM about how we could get (2) first round picks and the “reasonable” people thought we would get a 2nd. I myself thought we would have had to give up way more than we did for Sanchez. People last year thought we’d get a 6th for Montee Ball, after it appeared likely he wouldn’t make the roster. People have talked about trading Colquitt for a pick. The list could go on and on.

            You are definitely right about the interceptions with Sanchez. I had been looking over those stats somewhat, but there is just no way to sugar coat it. I guess the silver lining would be, IF he can correct that issue, the rest of his game looks pretty good.

            It’s also not sad that we do something that we all enjoy/derive entertainment from. But I agree with the rest of your point.

          • Rhett Rothberg

            Agree, in the fan world, there is not a good feel for trade value. Probably due to the fact that trades involve an exchange of probabilistic elements… My take is from simply looking back at the trends. For every successful 1st or 2nd round pick, there is a successful 5th or 6th round pick. So picks, in the aggregate are worth something, but individually, not so much.

            But to your point, I think, it does seem like trades of late, the pick that is given in return for a player has been lower than most might think.

            I’m not saying it’s sad…just being soapboxy about what we do here. It’s a barbershop….chewing the fat. We aren’t establishing positions to be defended at all cost. It’s an idea exchange, that’s it….

          • Lonestar47

            They gave him a HUGE contract and expected him to be the next Montana (49er legend). When his coach bailed on him and the team (sinking ship rat) his game went into the crapper but then so did the rest of the team.

            Depending on the cost.

            IMO I’d spend a second on an instant starter.

            It is not like it is a low second but the last pick in the second so it is more like it is a third anyway. Since we have two 3rds and 10 picks total. It is not like we can’t afford it.

        • InSiemianWeTrust

          Development is to mitigate negative imprinting. Few low rounders can have a Manningesque first year and not be shell shocked enough to right the ship. But some of those players may be rightly filtered out of the NFL (Manziel etc) regardless of round due to inherent flaws.

        • RyanHennigan

          Where do I add Kurt Warner to your list?

          • Rhett Rothberg

            Right there… 🙂

            Let’s run the percentages… So that’s, what, 4 or so, out of how many QB’s in the league in the past 15 years?

          • RyanHennigan

            I’m sure a few other might come to mind but I am starting to see your point.

            I’m not the biggest fan of Kaep but I see where it might be a fairly decent option. I would have been ok with RGKnee cause I feel he is similar talent at a low cost but it’s moot now.

          • Rhett Rothberg

            I’ll take more… I’m not saying I’m right…again just trying to develop the point a bit via discussion. But it’s what I’ve settled on…QB development doesn’t happen on the whole. You got it or you don’t….and usually the “got it’s” are high first round picks exclusively (with a few exceptions as noted)

          • Rhett Rothberg

            RGKnee….

            Agree… I think he has a bit of a martyr complex…but he would’ve been cheap.

        • BlackKnigh

          This may be an unpopular opinion here – but I put Kaep in the category of a rookie or first year QB with a little experience in the NFL. The article I read is that he has had a lot of trouble hitting his targets last year. Sounds like he needs the framework of a good system – like Kubiak’s – to get grounded and back to his old style of playing. It may take him 3 months – 6 months – a year – to do so. It may never happen. Depends on many factors. The system that Jim Harbaugh had in SF was a productive one for him. If that can be duplicated in Denver – he could be a very good QB.
          When I had a gymnastic business in the 1980’s – I found that it is a lot harder for athletes to unlearn bad habits and to replace them with good ones than to learn good ones in the first place. I believe that this is what Kaep is facing. Unfortunately it does not take long to ruin what could have been an outstanding career with some subpar coaching or play calling and lack of support.
          With all of that said – I would have liked Denver to have drafted him instead of that useless trade of good draft picks for Tebow. He would have been someone to build around.
          Guess we will see what comes out of this. I am not optimistic that Denver will end up with him in 2016.

        • SterlingMalloryArcher

          I think you’re right that it’s more of a polishing process than it is staggering metamorphosis. That’s why I think for the most part late round long shots like Trevor Siemian probably won’t ever become starters in the league. But there are plenty of guys that were able to polish their preexisting physical and mental skills to become effective players, and I think sitting for a little while before being thrown into the fire helps that process along.

          And I agree that there isn’t much real starting potential among this year’s QB draft class, which is why I think if they don’t get one in the first round they shouldn’t bother with the Cook, Hackenberg and Prescott tier on day 2.

          We have just a couple of fundamental differences of opinion here, and they both concern talent evaluation. First, I don’t think Colin Kaepernick is worth anywhere near a 2nd round pick and $12M. If he could be had for no draft compensation and about $6-$7M, I’d say bring him in. But to me he’s got a very specific skill set that a coach must cater to, and I don’t think Kubiak is the right guy for that job. Ironically, the guy that is most likely to get something out of Kaep is right there in San Francisco, Chip Kelly. His offense already would suit Kaep to some degree. Right now, though, the guy is Blaine Gabbert’s backup, and he should be compensated more or less as such until he proves that he can produce consistently. I also don’t believe his ceiling is very high now that his novelty has faded.

          The other disagreement we have is about the rookies, and it’s twofold. I think there’s 3 QBs that might be able to become solid starters after some polishing, rather than just one. I also think it’s foolish to assume that spending one draft pick on a QB will result in finding a long term starter. The probability that these guys will become what we want them to is about 50%, even in the first round. That means you may need to draft more than one, with a premium pick, so let’s get that process started now in case they whiff.

          • Rhett Rothberg

            Concur that there some fundamental values that are causing the differing conclusions.

            I think he is worth $12M, especially given that Oz gets $18M and Tannehill gets $17M per year. Makes Kap a bargain…

            On the pick, I still need someone to calibrate me here. How are draft picks so highly valued over a known NFL player? Draft picks in the aggregate are important. A single draft pick is not. It’s like voting for president. Votes count on the whole, yours, sorry, individually does not. So a 2nd for him? ¯_(ツ)_/¯ Why not? What are you missing out on? Tim Crowder? Richard Quinn? Wolfe? Maybe… Or maybe Alphonso Smith. But I can tell you EXACTLY what you are getting if you use it on Kap.

            The other thing on the pick that I really can’t wrap my head around is that nobody seems to bat an eyelash at expending a first round pick (#31) on Paxton Lynch, a true unknown with a bad pedigree, but you’d think you were making the Herschel Walker trade in giving a 2nd for Kap… I’m not following there….

            As far as catering the offense goes, you’re going to have a hard time convincing me that Kap is somehow a far inferior passer to Jake Plummer. Sorry, not seeing it. The Kubiak offense seems to be a pretty simple passing scheme, is it not? So why can’t Kap do it?

            To your last point, I think you seem to buy in to mine, that an individual draft pick is pretty worthless. But if you use that to get a known, NFL veteran, that seems to remove more of the risk.

          • SterlingMalloryArcher

            I think the goal is to find a real difference maker at the QB position. Kaepernick isn’t that, but Lynch might be. And I think there’s a good chance of finding a more impactful player than Kaepernick with the second round pick as well. Known quantities are a good thing, unless the quantity that is known isn’t much to speak of.

          • Rhett Rothberg

            So this is of course the fundamental disagreement…

            I’d be willing to wager a bag of donuts…or perhaps a fresh sawbuck on my proposition….

            Also, I am quite certain that Lynch will be a washout…

      • Jeremy

        And broncos fans will not wait patiently until 2019 while harris and von get older for a qb to come along.

        • Rhett Rothberg

          …but that’s the conundrum… It’s kind of a really bad place to be at…to be a good team, last pick in the draft, and have nothing at QB. Usually, when you’re in that situation, having no QB, you are probably drafting early and can get a “sure thing”… Not for the home town squad!

          TL;DR: John picked a really bad year to not have a starting QB

        • cjfarls

          That really is the fans problem though. Squandering draft capital on underwhleming players simply means that by the time you actually find a QB, you may not have the talent around them to support them.

  • InSiemianWeTrust

    Is it possible for the Titans take Wentz first overall, then blackmail Cleveland into trading their second pick position (to take Tunsil) for Wentz + change? Let’s get some drama!

  • The Color Orange

    Troy Renck
    ‏@TroyRenck

    #LSU CB Rashard Robinson and #Vanderbilt OLB Stephen Weatherly visited #Broncos today

  • RSH, Esq.
  • Rhett Rothberg

    But it may be all for not… Hope we didn’t wait too long…

    “No, Dak, the receiver is over there, you have to throw it toward him….” – Gary Kubiak, circa July 2016

    https://twitter.com/timkawakami/status/714591598697295874

    • Royalwithcheese

      I think this boils down to what Kawakami said last week: this will end up being a Jed York decision. Who knows what will happen. Elway isn’t offering the second-round pick. I’m in favor of offering a third (but I think it might just be me and you on the ship).

      • Rhett Rothberg

        I’d give the second…essentially the first pick of the third round 🙂

  • Rhett Rothberg

    Rest easy, shipmates…. I’ve almost got it out of my system….for tonight 😉

    http://milehighsports.com/only-one-quarterback-option-makes-sense-for-the-broncos/

    • Alaskan

      Don’t want him.
      I guess I’ll change my mind if JE says he’s the future.
      But I do not see it right now.

      • Rhett Rothberg

        The future is……..?

        • Alaskan

          Dunno.

        • Dirty_Sancheese

          The future is anyone that does not wear Beats headphones to press conferences

    • WhoShotBobbyHumphrey

      If we get Kaep, I’m either getting a “sleeve” tat, or a “tear drop” tat. I’ll make my decision by Thanksgiving.

      • Rhett Rothberg

        A sleeve of a sleeve…like a dress shirt

        • WhoShotBobbyHumphrey

          Wouldn’t that be sweet?! I’m on board with you. I think Kaep is by far our best option. The idea has grown on me.

    • Laces Out

      Agree its an absolute no brainer. Something else is in the way

  • RSH, Esq.
    • Laces Out

      Would be very satisfying addition

      • VonSwenson

        … if we can learn how to pronounce his name.

        • Sparks

          I think it’s pronounced “Rah-burt”. 🙂