Providing a home for those wishing to read and write insightful commentary on the Denver Broncos and more
Browns retool ahead of free agency, add 3 in Friday trades
Concise look at the Browns trades
If they keep this up, they may actually win a game someday.
Paging @WhoShotBobbyHumphrey once again:
Already smashed that lobbed up softball this morning. Apparently Kyle Shanahan and Sherm had a nice, intimate dinner last night, to discuss revenge against the Seahawks. This would be AWESOME!!!
Besides the obvious revenge factor, he gets to stay on the west coast and move to a franchise that’s headed up instead of down.
I had a real weird moment last night, where I actually felt bad for the Seahawks. Sherman meant a lot to that franchise. He was the face of a movement for the 12’s. They went from a soft team, with bird on their helmet, to a perennial bully. Timid Tech nerds, and hipsters alike, formed an unstoppable bandwagon, with Sherman as their mouth piece. I have to admit, it was fun for awhile, to have competitive football in the Pac NW. I wasn’t just the overly obsessed bronco fan anymore. Other people in my state, actually discovered professional football and enjoyed it. Now that he’s not a Seahawk, I am rooting for Sherm. #UMadBro
I attended a wedding in Seattle once. (‘98, I think, because Glenn Cadrez ended up tipping the game with a pick six.) That Sunday the Broncos were facing a very weak Seahawks team in the Kingdome. I lined up tickets. I lined up a later flight. Then my wife got cold feet and wanted to get home on schedule.
Anyway, I always regretted that. Seattle fans catch a lot of shit for being bandwagoners, but the atmosphere In the Dome was legendary. The original House of pain, at least for AFCWers.
Skipping that opportunity is one of my biggest football fan regrets.
My biggest regret is not going to Super Bowl 50. Luckily I was smart enough to fly out for the parade.
The Kingdome was a terrible place.
It was like watching football in a warehouse.
The Volkswagen of domed stadiums, it was called.
Baseball was even worse, because they would shoot off fireworks after a home run, with nowhere for the smoke to go.
I never have been in a Dome.
I’d keep it that way.
It was just a *moment*, right? You got over it quickly? Everything’s okay now?
I was stoned last night. Empathy can be good for a lot of things. Football isn’t one them.
I want the 12’s to know pain. I want their 12 emblazoned jerseys and shirts and fucking capes to be pushed to the back of their closets as the Niners and Rams drag their shit for the next five years. Especially that scrawny feral woman who capered about the aisle in front of us like a meth addicted gibbon @ SB 48.
Sometimes bitterness consumes a person and in some cases it fuels their lives.
Preach on, my brother!
The best is that the Broncos got a 4rd rounder, and a 6th rounder for Tebow, and the Seahawks got zip for Sherman! Lmfao!!!
Are they going to pay him in IOU’s or Monopoly money?
They’re going to cut Tamba Hali in an attempt to make space for him. Hopefully that attempt fails.
Hali got anything in the tank that makes him worthwhile at the right price? Former Chief DLs have worked well before.
2017: Only played 5 games, and only recorded one tackle. That’s a tackle, not a sack.
They should bring back Doom.
As assistant intern coach?
Young Doom was an awful fit for an odd front. I don’t see what old Doom has to offer.
He racked up 17 sacks in 2009, and then of course was IRed all of the terrible season that was 2010.
I did say odd front and not 3-4 so my bad. Doom and Ayres were DEs of a 52 not OLBs of a 34, but yes, I guess Mike Nolan made it work.
Doom as a nickel pass rushers would be ok, if he’s paid by the sack.
Maybe they need to replace the positive influence and the team oriented leadership void left by the departure of Marcus Peters.
Some people close to the Browns believe the Taylor trade is an indicator the Browns are high on Josh Allen and realize there’s no way they can put him on the field right away.
It’s starting to feel like a Denver/Mayfield marriage is inevitable.
There are far, far worse marriage possibilities, at least.
I think they take Rosen at 2. I could change my mind on that in 10 minutes. But I come back to that the most.
Stormy Daniels springs to mind.
Dude, I got one hobby. I live in the rectum of the rectum of the rectum of the United States. I got a lot of time to think, and only one fun thing to think about. (Which isn’t to say that I don’t have real things that I adore and cherish in my life, but all that eats ulcers in my belly, too.)
I’m sure to be all over the map. Indefinitely. 😀
I’ve never been attracted to the porn star look, to actually address your comment. I realize I can be bad about that.
What if Cleveland wants 21 and 22 from Buffalo, and now Buffalo needs to draft a QB. Or what is Cleveland wants to make Elway think someone else will draft JA, making it more likely Elway moves up?
Does Cleveland take JA at 1, or take Barkley betting neither NYG or Colts take JA?
They would also have to bet the Colts dont let someone trade up with them.
Yeah, I was too lazy to type potential trade partners. Fine, I’ll edit and add it.
The chances of Barkely being there at 4 are close to nil. The Giants would snap him up in a heartbeat, and I have to believe the Colts would too. I feel confident in saying that the odds of JA being there at 4 are way higher than Barkley being there at 4.
My assumption is that Barkley is the sure fire 1 now. Barkley is the only guy keeping TG D Gettleman married to 2. That puts the Giants in the catbird seat in the the QB derby. My final assumption is that John Elway leaves nothing to chance if he loses out on Kirk Cousins. The Broncos will get their guy, whoever that is. I’m hoping Mayfield but assuming Rosen.
Lots of assumptions.
I’m hoping there are enough attractive options at 5 to stay put, but that may be a foolish hope. If Elway prefers a certain player he will do his best to get that player.
I’m a fan.
There have been persistent signs. The Boulder based agent. The Senior Bowl.
John Elway’s new head band… all the signs are there…
I was about to reply to Alaskan’s “Browns might win a game someday” comment that I think the Browns are headed in the right direction and would have to screw the pooch badly to mess up their turnaround. Then I read this and erased said comment.
If anyone can fix the unfixable I guess H Jackson is as good as any. If it gets Josh Allen off the board before Denver is on the clock, I’m all for it.
I guess if Dorsey has a sack.
What I mean by that is with their lack of institutional luck at finding a quarterback, it would make a lot of guys starting a new job a little risk adverse. Josh Allen, if he busts, is the easiest way to get the barking seals to behave like you are fresh out of fish.
Then again, if Dorsey gave too much a fuck about safe, there would be no Cousins drama right now.
Then again, maybe Dorsey is just the smartest guy in the room when it comes to Kirk Cousins.
Then again, maybe I made my point and I should shut up now.
I read it last night but can’t recall where exactly.
Please, Cleveland. Save John from himself.
They love trading with the Patriots.
Broncos are at 4/8 of same metric. (Kept DT, Von, Roby, and Shane Ray, cast off Ayers, Moreno, Tebow, and Sly Williams).
Patriots are 3/6 if Soldier leaves.
Worse for the Browns, most of these picks were very high in the first round.
Even worse for the Browns is that they had 10 shots at the first round in 7 drafts.
It probably isn’t fair to look farther back than 5 years. Letting a first rounder walk as an UFA after the rookie contract is up is understandable. Parting with a first rounder during the rookie contract is questionable.
Probably should have kept Mack.
The real damning cause of this is both Lerner and Haslam repeatedly hitting the reset button, causing new GMs to get rid of “those” guys and move in “our” guys. We’re seeing the latest edition of this with Dorsey right now.
They went from uninvolved born billionaire asshole owner to too involved larcenous billionaire asshole owner.
I mostly agree, but you should sometimes be hitting on a guy and resigning him.
Sly is an interesting case for this grey area. I think his rookie contract value was in line with his draft slot, but not important enough for Denver to extend.
What’s with the pants, Baker?
They appeared to be some kind of mash up of more than one discredited style of pants.
I love that Baker clearly tanked when asked to validate that up-the-fuck trade proposal where Buffalo gets their filthy hands on five.
I’ve shopped at that Randall’s many times, I would spiked his water with PED’s then ran it out to him 🙂
That was pretty cool.
“I’m trying to send a message right now.”
I want this dude.
His last name’s an anagram and he’s kind of skinny, but Boston College CB Isaac Yiadom (yuh-EYE-dum) has a lot of the traits we like in a cornerback. He’s got good length, decent speed and he’s comfortable and aggressive in press coverage. He’s a special teams dynamo, so he can provide some value while learning how to not get toasted by NFL wideouts. He racked up 10 tackles this year (20 for his career) on kickoffs and operating as a gunner on punts.
We often talk about Elway’s success or lack there of in the draft. Normally those conversations center around the picks Elway has missed on (Ty Sambrailo, Montee Ball, Cody Latimer, etc.). While those picks are concerning, what I’m beginning to think is a bigger problem is the fact that since 2011/2012, he hasn’t hit on any great picks. From 2013-2016 (still a little early to evaluate the 2016 draft) the 4 best players he’s drafted have been Matt Paradis, Bradley Roby, Shane Ray, and Justin Simmons.
Of those 4 picks, none have been named to a pro bowl or received much national attention. Shane Ray had a down year last year, but hopefully that is mostly due to his injury and he bounces back strong. We’ll see how Roby looks this year without Talib on the field, and hopefully Simmons can take the next step and become a pro bowl Safety. Offensive lineman are always hard to evaluate, but I hope the unit as a whole plays better in 2018.
Beyond those 4 guys, I’d argue every draft pick has been either a below average starter, a depth/roleplayer, or a special teamer.
The other problem I see, is how little production we’ve gotten out of our rookies. From 2013-2017, we’ve only had two rookies be on the field for at least 50% of the snaps (Garret Bolles 98%, Bradley Roby 74%), and 7 who were on the field for at least 25% of the snaps (Max Garcia 49%, Booker 45%, Webster 42%, Ray 31%, Sly Williams 26%, and Montee Ball 25%). I get the need to be patient, but it would be nice if more than 1-2 guys a year could make a significant contribution as a rookie.
I don’t agree the last paragraph is a good metric of draft success.
First, without a league average of snap count by draft slot and position (reserve OL ideally play zero snaps) there’s no baseline to measure against.
Second, it’s unrealistic to expect it to be normal for rookies, except maybe first rounders, to outperform replacement level vets. If a third rounder is expected to out play a vet, they ought to have been drafted higher, no?
Low playing time for rookies to me doesn’t indicate a weakness in drafting. It indicates strength at filling needs and setting a high floor through free agency.
I’d love to know how it compares to the league average, but I’m guessing it’s a worse than average to only have two guys in 5 years see the field 50% of the time, and only 9 guys in 5 years see the field 25% of the time.
I guess I’ll also point out that if you truly feel this way, don’t concoct an offseason plan for the Broncos that assumes 3-4 holes will be filled by rookies.
I’ve seen a lot of people who want us to go Guard or QB at 1, and then still expect to find starters at ILB & OT later in the draft, while simultaneously getting several guys who would be significant role players at the nickel CB, RB, Slot WR and/or TE positions.
If you believe the rookie production has been satisfactory, give yourself one starter and one role player who will be on the field 25-50% for the time, and that’s it. That would still be significantly better than what we’ve averaged over the last 5 drafts.
Even if it’s true that Denver’s rookies play less than league average, that still doesn’t address the possibility that Denver does better than average in setting the floor through free agency.
I don’t know about finding a starter for ILB and RT in the draft. Things change in free agency. 2016 had a huge hole at LT, and I never saw the Okung signing coming. 2017 started out with the D line as a 3 alarm fire, but by the time the draft came, it was a completely different unit. Lack of better options may well force a rookie RT to start, unfortunately.
I’m going to have an OTC page along these lines next month after free agency dies down. Stay tuned.
The rookie part or the “how good are the draft picks you do hit on”, or both?
Either way, can’t wait.
Both. I’ve shared this before in sneak previews. Here’s the 2011 Broncos here, but remember these are provisional numbers.
Sorry, I still have that private. Here’s a screenshot:
I feel like Elway is too committed to the idea that you develop pro bowlers, you don’t draft them. Some guys really are ready to play very early in their rookie season, but Elway always seems to avoid them and go for the guys who need at least a year or two to get there.
If that’s true, that’s even more damning for Elway, since he hasn’t drafted a pro bowler since Malik Jackson, and he hasn’t drafted one who became a pro bowler in Denver since JT and Von Miller.
I’m not sure if SMA means pro bowls literally, or is contrasting drafting vs player development. Taken literally, pro bowls arent a good metric for draft success, either. Chris Harris failed to win a popularity award, and came to the Broncos undrafted. Neither decreases his value to the Broncos.
Whether literal or not, as I laid out in my top comment, I think Elway has struggled to land top talent.
If Elway is intentionally sacrificing rookie production with the hopes of developing top talent, I’d argue he’s failing on both fronts.
Some time later I could probably crunch rookie snap counts easy enough to see whether Elway drafted Broncos are an outlier or closer to the mean/median.
I don’t know what you mean by “top talent”. A roster better than most NFL teams? Sure, I’d love that. 11 guys on the field on the level of Von Miller and Chris Harris? Not going to happen.
As far as intentionally sacrificing rookie production, was Simmons and Parks examples of this? With Ward and Stewart starting, those rookies never seeing the field (other than substitution and special teams) is a GOOD thing. Sure, there were DEs more football ready than Adam Gotsis. Gotsis didn’t do much his rookie year. (And it would have mattered less if Vance Walker didn’t blow his knee.). In 2017, Gotsis finished with a 77.1 PFF grade, 8th best 3-4 DE against the ring and 18th best pass rush for his position. Maybe not “top talent” but comfortably above replacement level. If the rest of Gotsis’s rookie contract is as good or better, anyone that wants to complain he was over drafted or had a bad rookie year can go kick rocks.
My drafting philosophy is pretty simple. Find guys who combine the best possible physical traits with more than one season of high level production in college. Yeah, that describes Nelson and Fitzpatrick, but it describes a hell of a lot of other guys, too. Quite often, we’re too in love with with how projectible a player might be.
Good example was 2012. We drafted Osweiler and his 15 starts over three year starters Wilson, Cousins and Foles.
Not only did Elway lock in on Os, but wasn’t he drafted a round or two early? At least wait until after Cousins and Wilson were drafted then move up if necessary. The only guy I recall mentioning Os a 2nd rd. possibly late 1st. was Gil Brandt.
That disqualifies both Bolles and Ramcheyk, correct?
Ramczyk has the size and athletic ability you want. He dominated at a small school for two years before one year as an All American @ Wisconsin. That comes fairly close. Anyway, I should have specified that the above described the ideal qualities for a prospect. You’re not going to get that with every pick and especially when you’ve painted yourself into a need pick corner the way we did last year.
It frustrates me to no end.
That concept didn’t work too well with their OL guys: Sambraillo, Schofield and Garcia. And it should as that is how you get good OL players. You have to develop them for the most part.
Roby was a revelation his rookie year and has largely been nitpicked by the faithful since. His play style invites getting beat by design, but as he gains experience he might yet be great. I bet we see an uptick in picks from him the next few years, hopefully in Denver.
Of course, I don’t give DV much credit for that pick, because I’m pretty sure a brain injured circus monkey would’ve made the same pick. They had already broadcast to the world that they intended to draft a cornerback in the 1st, and it was only blind luck that a Top 15 talent blundered upon them at 31.
I don’t think the Broncos are good at drafting, either. I used to believe in their general personnel philosophy, but not even that so much anymore.
Sound policy, maybe, but bad execution.
If we’re gonna nit pick, a guy who doesn’t fully develop until his 5th provides way less value than a guy who develops while still on the cheap. If you are trying to be objective, it’s hard to evaluate a corner who had two 1st team all pro CBs on the field with him, was paired with a ferocious pass rush, and an all around great defense. The same thing could be said for Simmons in a lot of ways.
That said, I don’t want to bash the guys. Roby hasn’t missed a game in 4 years. He’s played 65% of the defensive snaps and has pitched in on special teams. He has been a key piece of the no fly zone and I can’t remember many games where I left feeling he really hurt us.
I don’t think he is developing. He has been a good NFL corner for basically his entire career. I think he has a good chance of becoming a star, is all. I don’t think his adequacy as a player is in question. My opinion, of course, but the kid has made a lot of plays. He’s been picked on mercilessly and held up most of the time. He gets absolutely brutalized, however, every time he gets beat. I’d put him up there with DT in the waaaaaaaay under appreciated department.
I know I’m hard on Simmons. I just don’t see instincts. No evidence. He’ll be a good player, have a nice career. I just don’t see the budding star that was hyped most of last season.
Sounds like Aqib Talib wasn’t as impressed with Simmons as most, either. 😀
Agreed on the Roby part, and agreed he is underappreciated by a lot of a fans. When I said developing I meant from a good CB to a great CB. Basically my point is it’d be nice if the Broncos from time to time drafted a player who was great, instead of ones who are just good. And it’d be even nicer if they did it before their rookie deal was up.
what did Talib say about SImmons?
Nothing exactly. But didn’t he alienates some with his incessant complaining about the loss of TJ Ward?
That’s how I heard it, at least.
It is interesting to me that Sam Darnold doesn’t have at least a couple vocal proponents on this board.
Actually, it surprises me that I don’t love Darnold to pieces. He backs my love for intangibles with plus tools. I can’t explain why he is the meh candidate in my world.
It’s the frumpy jawline. Hard to get excited over it.
And there’s that.
Is the jaw tantamount to the name Brock to me? Does it set off the same assumptions?
My yearn for self discovery deepens…😀
I like him. I think he’s been overscouted to some degree. His freshman tape is incredibly impressive. The turnover issue is a concern, but I think it’s correctable. He’s meh in that he doesn’t have a single carrying tool that defines his value. Rosen and Mayfield are accurate; Allen and Jackson are freaks. Darnold is just kind of above average, to varying degrees, in everything.
I’m pretty ignorant with draft prep, but I’ve seen you throw around the term “Over scouted” a lot. What exactly does that mean?
People are overthinking him? Scouts are higher on than they should be?
I’m heading out the door to a birthday lunch for a family member, but I’ll elaborate later.
One very simple way to put it is that it is almost impossible to live up to the hype coming off of a season like his freshman season.
Basically. It’s more something you see happen to guys who stay in school for four years and are regarded as top prospects for much of that time. Evaluators begin to nitpick and small flaws get repeated by so many people that they seem like defining traits by the time their draft rolls around. With Darnold, the process got sped up because he was sort of the consensus number one pick coming into his sophomore season in a huge media market. When he struggled in week one against a middling team from the MAC, everybody went to Def-Con 5 on him right away. Rosen throwing for 1763 yards and 16 touchdowns in the first four games didn’t help Darnold, either. He turned his season around in week four and played really well (minus the fumbles) but by then a lot of people stopped paying attention.
That is a very good way to sum it up. Seriously.
He is the Lake Woebegone resident QB?
Elite decision making speed.
I honestly can’t tell the difference anymore between elite decision speed and executing the “hot” read.
He also didn’t throw at the combine so there was less to talk about. he’s my 3rd choice but it’s more like Baker 1a, Rosen 1b and Darnold 2.
I think this draft is just pretty deep, he’d probably be 1 most other years.
This is from a Vikings reporter? Not saying he’s wrong, but…
In less than 48 hrs a third of the league may be openly and legally sending offers to Brees. Elway has to have a solid offer in his drafts folder right?
We better be one of them.
He could copy and paste from the rumored Vikes offer to Cousins.
Anyone else feel like Dove Valley’s doors are too leaky?
Why does everyone and their mother known that Cousins is #1, and Keenum is #2?
Not to mention how Bolles/Lynch went down.
OTOH, given the number of alcoholics in key positions, we could be considered downright discrete.
http://www.nfl.com/podcasts –> 275: DJ’s Top 50 2.0, Interview with Nike’s Ryan Flaherty
Go to 39:00. Nike athletic trainer who worked with Darnold and Allen gives the low down.
In summary: Darnold is unflappable with Drew Brees like accuracy. Allen is tall.
Florio says the Redskins want a 3rd, but opines that they may not be able to get that and that a conditional 2019 pick would be better.
He’s definitely a head case. I wouldn’t necessarily say that precludes us from acquiring him, but they can forget about a third round pick or anything close to that.
He and Witherspoon would easily be the tallest DB duo.
Let’s see if Sherman the agent is better than Okung the agent.
And much trolling was had by @WhoShotBobbyHumphrey:disqus
Oh joy!!! Happy Mutha Faqn days!!!!
Prediction was already (mostly) off on the structure. We’ll see how I did on the APY/Guarantees.
I am totally getting a Sherman 9ers Jersey!!!
Sherman returns to the Bay Area.
Lynch is recruiting/picking Stanford grads hard.
Supposedly 3 years, 39 million.
If he was traded, he would have only due 11 million in 2018. Weird to me the seahawks couldn’t find any takers.
We’ll have to see the structure to learn the devil in the details.
But Aqib Talib is going to be pissed if Sherman got more than $11M cash in Year 1.
Nope, just $9M.
More reports of Cousins to Vikings. I’m sure it’ll be followed by denials from others.
Yeah, when every single rumor is about him going to the Vikings, he’s going to the Vikings.
Urgh, I hope the Keenum rumors aren’t true as well.
With cousins and Taylor gone, I don’t care who they sign as long as he’s just a bridge to Mayfield.
Edit: yeah I know, one note song.
That’s another one. The rumors have died down since the Combine, but it makes sense with him and Kubiak.
My HS alma mater (G-Dub!) getting it in tonight in the CO 5A State Basketball Championship. https://www.maxpreps.com/m/team/schedule.aspx?gendersport=boys,basketball&schoolid=e9f52206-8619-4d0d-b3a0-fae002eb05a6
Side note, they are the only patriots I’ll ever root for.
People keeping linking TJ Carrie and the Broncos. I bet this happens.
Guess Chucky wasn’t a fan because McKenzie spoke extremely highly of him.