2018 Broncos Quarterback Survey: Aggregate Results

I shared the single question results of the survey earlier: now I thought I’d look deeper at the results and take a look at the intersection of some responses. I won’t be able to cover all intersections by myself, so if you have some you’d like to see, let me know and I’ll crunch them for you and add them to the article.

Veteran quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins

  • All but 8 of 150 Kirk Cousins supporters are willing to spend more than $20 million APY to get him. It’s a good sign that not that many fans are deluding themselves into thinking they can get that kind of bargain.
  • A slim majority of Kirk Cousins supporters also support adding a rookie quarterback with a top five pick. This is a point I’d disagree with, as if the Broncos do what it takes to get him, they should be running on the assumption that he’s the guy for at least the next two seasons, and use #5 (if they have it) on another position.
  • Majorities of Kirk Cousins supporters wanted to cut Menelik Watson, Aqib Talib, and CJ Anderson–but not Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders. This, on the other hand, makes more sense to me, as it would give Cousins some more reliable targets at receiver than he had in DC.
  • There is more sympathy to keep Trevor Siemian as an incumbent quarterback among Kirk Cousins supporters. Fewer respondents wanted to outright cut Paxton Lynch, but a plurality favored putting him on the trade block. If Cousins is acquired, I would be OK with keeping Siemian as a full time backup, although he should probably receive a short extension to make sure that role is solidified beyond the expiration of his rookie deal after 2018.

Tyrod Taylor

  • 49 of 50 Tyrod Taylor supporters also support keeping him in the salary range he’s currently slated for in 2018 ($16 million). I find this notable because I think that if the Bills cut him, there’s a non-zero chance that he could be had for less than $15 million APY. However, there’s a good reason why respondents overwhelmingly voted in this manner…
  • 44 of 50 Tyrod Taylor supporters want to make a trade for him–with a slim majority willing to give up a Day 2 pick. I too am fine with trading for Taylor, although I would probably limit to a Day 3 pick as the Bills are going to be crunched for time to a point where they have to cut Taylor before paying him a $6 million roster bonus.
  • Only Watson garnered a majority among players to cut to make room for him. This is sensible, as Watson is likely being cut for more than just cap reasons, and it will cost less in cap dollars to get Taylor.
  • An overwhelming majority of Tyrod Taylor supporters also favor taking a rookie quarterback with a top five pick. This, too, aligns with my opinion–while I’m bullish on Taylor I’m more cautiously so, and I think the Broncos should get insurance with a rookie if Taylor doesn’t turn out to be the long term answer. (Precisely half of Taylor supporters want Baker Mayfield as that rookie quarterback, as well.)

Alex Smith

I’m only going to skim aggregate results with him as this is now almost certain to not be an option. But among these 42 respondents, almost all pegged him in the $15-$20 million APY range (something the Redskins disagree with), a slim majority were willing to part ways with a Day 2 pick (but would they part with a young cornerback too?), and an overwhelming majority also said to draft a rookie as well.

All other veteran QBs (less than 10% share from respondents)

  • Respondents were split on how much to spend for these quarterbacks. Among those had no limit, the overwhelming choice was Drew Brees. Among those who limited to only backup salaries, Sam Bradford and Josh McCown were popular responses.
  • A plurality were willing to give up Day 2 picks among these veteran quarterbacks. This is a bit odd, as most of them are likely to hit the UFA market unencumbered. Furthermore, among these there were only a few responses for Case Keenum or AJ McCarron, the two quarterbacks that might require it.
  • Talib, Sanders, Watson and Anderson all garnered majorities or heavy minorities to be cut. This is another point I’ll largely disagree with, as the Broncos should not be shedding talent for a veteran quarterback unless they absolutely need the cap space.
  • A clear majority also said to acquire a rookie quarterback as well. A clear majority also says to take a quarterback in the top 5, with an overwhelming plurality in favor of Mayfield.

Rookie quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield

  • An overwhelming majority of Baker Mayfield supporters say to take him with a top five pick. As of now, it does seem to be necessary to get him, but we shall see where the league consensus goes by the time we get to April.
  • A solid majority want to trade up to get him. I’ve gone through the scenarios that could require such a move, so this doesn’t strike me as outright unreasonable.
  • 50 of 174 Baker Mayfield supporters also want Kirk Cousins. This would be more than covering their bases at the quarterback position, and it’s one that I can’t quite endorse due to being overkill.

Josh Rosen

  • All of 2 of respondents for him say to use a top five pick on him. Again, this fits the current consensus, but time will tell if that holds up.
  • An overwhelming majority of Josh Rosen supporters also want a veteran quarterback–but they’re highly split on which one. Cousins still got a plurality of votes but it was not nearly as lopsided as it was for Mayfield. Not sure what to make of that.

Josh Allen

The aggregate results for Allen are almost identical to that of Rosen: use a top 5 pick on him, also get a veteran, but highly split on which veteran. This one I find more notable because there’s currently a lot more debate on whether Allen should be regarded as highly as he is in some quarters.

Sam Darnold

Again, the consensus among his supporters largely overlaps with that of Rosen and Allen. Darnold has been considered a possible 1st overall pick much earlier than anyone else, though, so we will see if that consensus reestablishes itself come April.

Lamar Jackson

Now, here’s a difference: only 5 of 21 Lamar Jackson supporters say he should be taken with at top 5 pick. Everyone else said that he should be a late 1st rounder or Day 2 pick. I’ll be interested to see if this sentiment matches the eventual league consensus on Jackson.

All other rookie quarterbacks

No one said to use a 1st round pick on them. Almost all of these respondents want a veteran quarterback, but they were highly split as to which one. I thought I would see more support for Cousins among this group, as to me it seems like these are the types of rookie quarterbacks one would target if you did want to pair one with Cousins.

Incumbent quarterbacks

  • A minority, albeit a sizeable one, are willing to part ways with both Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch. I couldn’t find any trend among which quarterbacks were most desired to replace both of them, other than the general results that favored Cousins and Mayfield.
  • Only 11 of 400 respondents want to keep both Siemian and Lynch. This is not terribly surprising, but it’s also a scenario that, although I would disagree with it, could very well happen if the Broncos only acquire one new quarterback, and Chad Kelly doesn’t work out at all. I’d probably put those odds at better than the 2.75% that this suggests.
  • Those cautiously optimistic with Chad Kelly are more likely to want to see Siemian and/or Lynch gone. Again, this makes sense, as if Kelly is retained it makes it difficult to keep both of Siemian or Lynch as well on the roster.

 

  • ohiobronco

    I’d be willing to bet the overwhelming majority of the Cousins and top 5 pick supporters envision it as an either or scenario. Many people probably said they wanted a veteran and a rookie, then said their favorite veteran was Cousins, then said they wanted the rookie to be a top 5 pick. These people were most likely assuming a different veteran was actually aquired when answering the top 5 pick question.

    • Nick

      Very good point.

    • T. Jensen

      That would be me. If we get Cousins or some miracle trade for a different actual franchise QB, I would expect us to roll with what we have or a mid-late round QB.

      If we draft a QB at 5, I’d want a decent journeyman to be there as a mentor/stopgap.

    • Drewredux

      I should have read down. 😀

      I can be impulsive and bad about that.

    • Tyler

      Can confirm, I did this.

  • bradley

    My concern with Tyrod Taylor: Why have two successive Bills regimes been so (apparently) anxious to be done with him?

    • Yahmule

      I consider the Bills to be one large cautionary tale. Chasing off a quarterback like Taylor when they’ve got dick behind him is part of the reason they went 17 years without a playoff appearance.

  • WhoShotBobbyHumphrey

    Thanks for putting this together Nick! Was Laces Out, and Snatch Mouth the only “two people” that voted for Josh Allen? 😉

    • Drewredux

      I likely did. I don’t want them to do that, but I think he has a Top 5 skillset. The completion % kills me, but I don’t see near the hapless football IQ others do.

      If he hits, he will be a decade and a half force i the NFL. I’d understand rolling the dice on that bet.

      • WhoShotBobbyHumphrey

        I would love it if we took him, and proved ourselves wrong.

    • Laces Out

      Only one if us needs to be right

      • WhoShotBobbyHumphrey

        Just making sure you’re still out there!

        • Laces Out

          Allen is a player..you will see amigo

  • Drewredux

    Jeepers. That’ll kill me if they marry K. Cousins AND draft a QB at 5. That’d, to me, be PMFM-Oz squared. I’d wonder if Dove Valley is banging a bad batch of Chinese blackmarket Ketamine or some shit.

    • Laces Out

      PMFM-Oz ….SB50 champs

      • Drewredux

        I guess you could scoreboard that decision in both directions. Oz did play a couple nice halfs when they needed him, but they’ve also dive-bombed from SB glory to drafting 5 overall in 2 seasons. Part of that is because Elway was convinced he had the hier apparent in the building.

    • OnionKnight

      Or its Philly’s version of Sam Bradford, Chase Daniels and still drafting Wentz. No one is questioning them now, but they heavily invested in the QB position and it paid off handsomely. You’ve got only so many swings at the bat and you don’t land in the top 5 often. I say you load up and deal with the consequences of that later. You could still trade Cousins for a pick next year, ala, the Vikings/Eagles if Mayfield/Allen/etc… are truly game changing.

  • BlackKnigh

    Nice work on this one, Nick! Thanks.
    I would be thrilled with Cousins and a later pick on Mike White. He should be a 3rd or 4th round pick. He has the tools and playing behind Cousins would be ideal. Use the other high picks on OL and ILB or whatever. I would still like to see if Lynch has anything in TC and Kelly as well. Keep Siemian. He knows the offense better than anyone else except Oz who I think is gone. He might turn out OK if he knows he won’t be using his life insurance money right away behind an improved OL.