Midweek Musings: More Thoughts Regarding Broncos Offseason

Obviously, we Bronco fans are disappointed that our favorite team will not go to the playoffs this year. Nick and I have each gone over some of the reasons why things didn’t go the Broncos’ way this season (see here and here) and what should be the focus this offseason (see here and here).

I wanted to go into more detail about the areas the Broncos should address this offseason and address a few points for everyone to remember as we work to address those needs.
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Analyzing The Broncos Roster And Offseason Priorities

While there are still two weeks left in the regular season, it doesn’t hurt to get an idea about where things stand with the current roster and a rough idea about what the Broncos need to do this offseason.

I will go over each position, including any practice squad players and those on injured reserve, and go over relevant status as warranted. I will include my own thoughts on what might be the best approach for the Broncos to make this offseason at each position.

Basic info: The Broncos have an estimated $30.7M in available cap space, but that number is based on an estimated cap of $166M. The cap may go higher than that, so the Broncos may have a little more room to work with. They have 37 players who are under contract for next season, nine players on the practice squad who will likely get futures contracts, nine players who will be exclusive rights free agents (ERFAs), three who will be restricted free agents (RFAs) and 11 players who will be unrestricted free agents (UFAs).
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Why You Can’t Always Count On Trades

I’m planning to get something up later in the week about where things stand with the current Broncos roster and what to consider about an offseason plan, but I wanted to get another topic out of the way first.

That deals with one of the means of acquiring players: Trades.

When one puts together an offseason game plan, you first need to ask yourself which pending unrestricted free agents of your own should be re-signed, which restricted free agents should be tendered and at what level (regarding exclusive rights FAs, they are almost always tendered because there’s no risk to do so) and which players must be cut for performance reasons, cap reasons or both. Once you have those in mind, you consider how to fill holes through, in order, the draft, free agency and trades.
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Midweek Musings: Broncos Philosophy Isn’t The Problem

In recent days, there’s been plenty of discussion about what the Broncos need to do down the stretch and whether or not Gary Kubiak isn’t being flexible enough with his offensive schemes.

Some of this seems to go back to the thought process surrounding coaches who strongly believe in their schemes but didn’t have success in recent years and that this must mean that a “scheme trumps talent” mindset doesn’t work. Then we hear about coaches who “adjust their schemes to fit talent” and see them win and we think that’s the answer to the Broncos’ problems.

I know somebody brought up a couple of weeks ago an article that our good friend Ted Bartlett wrote about differences between coaching philosophies, with those who believe “talent trumps scheme” and those who believe “scheme trumps talent.” I know Bartlett used the former to describe John Fox and the latter to describe Mike Shanahan and Josh McDaniels. It’s easy to say that because the latter two did not succeed in their most recent years as head coaches that “talent trumps scheme” doesn’t work, but I don’t believe that was Bartlett’s point. If it was, the likes of Bill Belichick and Andy Reid wouldn’t be having success.

Now, I know what some will say about Belichick and Reid, but the truth is they do subscribe to the “scheme trumps talent” philosophy. They are willing to adapt, but not in the ways you think they do. In order to understand the two philosophies, you need to take a deeper look at what they are really about and what they really require.
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Midweek Musings: A Weak Year For NFL MVP Candidates

I follow Scott Kacsmar on Twitter, who has debated with many people about who should or shouldn’t be the NFL’s Most Valuable Player this year. One observation he has made is that there aren’t any strong candidates for MVP.

Much of his debate surrounds those who argue that Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is an MVP candidate, which Kacsmar strongly disagrees with. One example:

Regardless of what you think about Carr’s MVP merits or Kacsmar’s thoughts, I concluded that Kacsmar has a valid point about this being a weak MVP race, something that isn’t the case with awards other than MVP. First, let’s review major awards other than MVP:
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We Know About The Broncos, But What About Their Opponents?

Everyone should be aware of that the Broncos need to win out to ensure themselves a spot in the playoffs. Everyone is aware by now of the weaknesses the Broncos have (mostly on offense). And everyone is aware that the Broncos are not likely to secure the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, even if it’s mathematically possible.

But while all is not perfect for the Broncos, nor is it perfect for the remaining four opponents on their schedule. Each of those opponents will pose a problem for the Broncos to some degree, but those opponents have problems that will affect them, too.

Let’s get the Broncos’ issues out of the way first: They still have issues at right tackle, their running back corps has thinned thanks to injuries, the starting QB has battled injuries, the backup QB still needs development before he becomes the starter, and the defense, while still one of the best units in the NFL, is no longer capable of making up for the offense’s inability to move the chains or of constantly holding off opponents who get good field position.

But we’ve discussed these issues many times over. Instead, let’s turn our attention to the opponents the Broncos will face in the coming weeks and examine what each of them has done well and the areas in which they have struggled – and, in particular, anything noteworthy as it pertains to their specific matchup against the Broncos.

We’ll go over them in order of when the Broncos play them.
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Midweek Musings: What’s Up With Special Teams?

Good afternoon, Bronco fans! As we’ll recall, last Sunday night was a long night and I imagine most everyone was left drained after that game, and would have felt that way even if the Broncos had won. But that brings me to the biggest reason the Broncos lost: Special teams.

If you look at Pro Football Reference’s season summary for the Broncos thus far, in last Sunday’s game, the Denver special team had an expected points of -18.09, the worst it’s been this season. When you look at Football Outsiders DVOA, the Broncos rank 22nd in special teams this season. Now, it’s easy to throw Joe DeCamillis under the bus for that, but I think laying the blame on him is over-simplifying matters. The Broncos ranked 14th in special teams DVOA last year, so it’s not something that can be attributed to coaching alone.

The big issue with special teams is personnel and, while there are some obvious areas to point out, others are not as obvious. I wanted to look at those areas, starting with those that may be less obvious to most of you, given the areas we tend to focus on.
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Midweek Musings: Thanksgiving Edition

Happy Thanksgiving, Bronco fans! I haven’t had as much time to do Midweek Musings because of several work-related projects and other activities, the latter which I’ll get to toward the ending of this writing. But before that, I wanted to go over a few topics I’ve been meaning to touch upon. I’ll do my best to sum things up with each.
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Offseason Overview: Veteran Contract Situations

In continuing information about the offseason work that the Broncos are likely to consider, I wanted to keep people updated as to where things stand with the veteran players on the roster and how the Broncos might approach things in the offseason.

One thing to keep in mind with players is the difference between fully guaranteed money and non-guaranteed money. While certain players have money in 2017 that is currently “injury only” guaranteed, that money becomes fully guaranteed if a player is on the roster by a certain date. So, for the purposes of this post, I am treating things under the assumption that money will either be locked in toward the start of the 2017 NFL year or it will not be locked in.

When money becomes fully guaranteed makes a difference in terms of when you need to make a decision regarding a player’s future. If you have a player that isn’t guaranteed any money until he is on a game-day roster for the regular season, there is no risk in keeping the player on the roster and no rush to getting him to take a salary reduction, unless your cap space is tight. Because the Broncos are projected to have nearly $39M in cap space, their only focus will be on which players are guaranteed money at what point.
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A Look Ahead At Potential Broncos Free Agents

Now that we’ve reached the halfway point of the season and the trade deadline has passed, I wanted to examine which players are set to become free agents and how the Broncos might approach things with them.

While there’s still half a season left to play, it’s not a bad idea to plan ahead a bit to determine how your offseason game plan may take shape by considering which players you may lean toward keeping and, of those you are leaning toward replacing, who is and isn’t likely to fetch a compensatory pick.

I’ll consider the free agents by their respective categories.

UPDATE 2:16 P.M. MT: Nick Korte commented that the tags for restricted free agents and exclusive rights free agents have not been updated, so some of the players listed as RFAs might be ERFAs. For now, I will leave everyone’s designation alone, but will revisit this down the road, at which point we should have confirmed what free agent categories each player will fall under.
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