Here are this week’s Not So Scientific Rankings. As always, they are an average of the following:
* Pro Football Focus Power Rankings
* Pro Football Reference Simple Ranking System
* Five Thirty Eight ELO Playoff Probability Rankings
* Football Outsiders DVOA Rankings
* Andrew Mason’s Power Rankings
Great teams
1. New England 2 1 1 2 1 – 1.4
2. Carolina 1 5 2 4 3 – 3
3. Cincinnati 3 3 6 1 2 – 3
4. Arizona 4 2 3 6 5 – 4
5. Denver 5 6 4 7 4 – 5.2
Good teams
6. Kansas City 12 4 7 3 6 – 6.4
7. Green Bay 7 7 8 8 8 – 7.6
8. Seattle 13 8 5 5 7 – 7.6
9. Minnesota 6 10 9 13 9 – 9.4
10. Pittsburgh 11 9 10 9 12 – 10.6
11. Buffalo 15 11 13 11 15 – 13
12. New York Jets 18 12 17 10 10 – 13.4
Average teams
13. Oakland 10 14 24 12 13 – 14.6
14. Houston 9 15 12 22 17 – 15
15. Baltimore 14 17 14 14 18 – 15.4
16. Indianapolis 16 16 11 20 14 – 15.4
17. Atlanta 8 20 20 23 11 – 16.4
18. Chicago 19 13 19 19 21 – 18.2
19. New York Giants 25 18 15 17 16 – 18.2
Mediocre teams
20. Detroit 28 21 16 16 20 – 20.2
21. Washington 24 22 22 15 22 – 21
22. St. Louis 22 19 26 18 23 – 21.6
23. Philadelphia 17 24 21 24 25 – 22.2
24. Tampa Bay 26 25 25 21 19 – 23.2
25. Dallas 21 28 18 29 24 – 24
The bad teams
26. Jacksonville 23 27 31 25 27 – 26.6
27. Miami 27 26 28 26 26 – 26.6
28. San Diego 32 23 27 27 31 – 28
29. New Orleans 20 32 29 30 30 – 28.2
30. San Francisco 31 30 23 32 28 – 28.8
31. Tennessee 30 31 32 28 29 – 30
32. Cleveland 29 29 30 31 32 – 30.2
Let’s cover a few items about the teams.
1. The AFC playoff picture is becoming clearer. The teams who will make it are New England, Cincinnati, Denver and Kansas City. The AFC South is between Indianapolis and Houston and the remaining wild card spot is between the Texans, Pittsburgh, Buffalo and the New York Jets. Oakland is a long shot to make the playoffs. I think we can safely rule out all other AFC teams.
2. The NFC playoff picture is the same. I would say the NFC teams who will make the playoffs are Carolina, Arizona, Green Bay, Minnesota and Seattle. That leaves the NFC East, and I believe the Giants pull it out in the end. Among other teams, Atlanta’s playoff hopes are fading, Washington and Philadelphia can only get in by winning the NFC East and Chicago needs a lot to fall into place. Everyone else is out of the picture.
3. The teams that most desperately need regime changes are Cleveland, San Francisco, New Orleans and Miami. That means the top guys in the front office and the entire coaching staff need to be sent packing. I would add Tennessee, but I expect the front office to stay in place and a new head coach to take over for Mike Mularkey. But the others need to have everybody go.
4. As for other teams some may argue need regime changes, I suspect Jacksonville will stick it out with Gus Bradley for another year, but he’ll need a winning record to stay beyond that. Tom Telesco and Mike McCoy probably get another year in San Diego, but no winning record next year means at least McCoy is gone. Jeff Fisher is coming closer to losing his job in St. Louis, though I don’t see a front office change. Assuming Chip Kelly doesn’t take a college coaching job, the Eagles need to seriously revisit how much control he has over personnel decisions. At the very least, they need to have somebody with more expertise to guide him. Finally, Detroit will be getting a new GM, but if the Lions keep winning, it will become harder to justify letting Jim Caldwell go.
5. There are other teams who have been thought of as possibly making regime changes for one reason or another. Talk about such changes in Indianapolis has subsided, but who knows what might happen if Indy doesn’t win the division or wins it but goes one and done in the playoffs. I don’t think Dallas, Washington, Tampa Bay or Houston make any changes, unless ownership gets impatient about something. And I’ve always believed that Tom Coughlin will be allowed to go out on his own terms with the Giants, so it remains to be seen if he decides this will be his last season.
