In this week’s Not So Scientific Rankings, I’ll briefly talk about the teams that the Denver Broncos have played or will play this season and we’ll figure out how good the Broncos’ schedule really is. After all, the halfway point is about when you know which teams really rank among the best and which ones are bottom feeders.
As always, these rankings are the average of the following:
* Pro Football Focus Power Rankings
* Pro Football Reference Simple Rankings System
* Football Outsiders DVOA Rankings
* Five-Thirty-Eight ELO Playoff Probability Rankings
* Andrew Mason’s power rankings
To give you an idea of what I am looking at when judging the quality of teams:
Top 6: Great teams
7-12: Good teams
13-19: Average teams
20-25: Below average teams
26-32: Bad teams
1. New England 1 1 1 1 1 – 1
This is the measuring stick for the Broncos. If the defense can contain the likes of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, and the offense can effectively move the ball, we’ll know how legitimate the Broncos’ Super Bowl chances really are.
2. Cincinnati 3 2 3 3 2 – 2.6
The Bengals won’t be quite the test the Patriots are, but they will be the final test to determine if the Broncos can make that deep playoff run. Bear in mind that the Bengals could be 13-1 by that point, or 14-0 if they are able to win at Arizona in Week 11.
3. Denver 4 4 6 2 3 – 3.8
Talk about a jump for your favorite team, huh?
4. Arizona 5 3 2 7 4 – 4.2
5. Carolina 2 8 7 6 5 – 5.6
6. Green Bay 7 7 4 4 6 – 5.6
The victory over the Packers shows the Broncos can beat one of the better teams in the NFL.
7. Seattle 11 10 9 5 7 – 8.4
8. Pittsburgh 10 5 10 8 14 – 9.4
The Steelers are ranked sixth offensively and 11th defensively in DVOA, so they will be a good test. Only time will tell how good they are with Le’Veon Bell out of the lineup, but the Steelers will not be a pushover and the Broncos will need to play like they did against the Packers to win.
9. Philadelphia 12 9 12 10 15 – 11.6
10. New York Jets 18 6 5 20 11 – 12
11. Atlanta 6 14 17 12 12 – 12.2
12. Oakland 9 13 8 22 10 – 12.4
Consider it official: The Raiders are a good team, so the Broncos earned that victory. A better showing by the Broncos offense in the Week 14 rematch will be a must, though.
13. St. Louis 14 11 13 17 8 – 12.6
14. Kansas City 17 12 11 11 13 – 12.8
The Chiefs seem to have found enough playmakers on offense to make up for the loss of Jamaal Charles, although they remain an average team. As with the Raiders, the Broncos will need to be better on offense in the second outing than they were in the first one.
15. Minnesota 8 17 27 9 9 – 14
The Vikings are an average team, too. They are in the NFC playoff hunt, though.
16. Buffalo 15 16 14 19 17 – 16.2
17. Baltimore 16 15 16 18 18 – 16.6
The Ravens are an average team, thanks largely to injuries, players who were injured last year and haven’t bounced back as expected and some bad luck in close games.
18. New York Giants 21 18 15 13 16 – 16.6
19. New Orleans 13 19 19 15 20 – 17.2
20. Dallas 19 20 25 14 21 – 19.8
21. Miami 20 23 20 21 22 – 21.2
22. Indianapolis 24 25 21 16 24 – 22
Consider the Colts below average. I’ll talk more about the Colts in the Midweek Musings, but I will say that if the Broncos bring the same level of play they brought against the Packers, this week’s game shouldn’t even be close.
23. Washington 26 21 18 28 25 – 23.6
24. Tampa Bay 23 28 26 27 19 – 24.6
25. Houston 22 26 30 23 26 – 25.4
26. Cleveland 25 24 22 30 27 – 25.8
One of the bad teams the Broncos have played. It wasn’t a perfect outing but the Broncos at least showed some signs of progress on offense that week.
27. San Diego 30 22 23 25 28 – 25.6
The one bad team in the division, thanks largely to injuries and certain players regressing.
28. Tennessee 29 30 28 32 23 – 28.4
29. Chicago 28 27 29 29 30 – 28.6
As with the Colts, if the Broncos bring the same level of play they brought against the Packers, the Week 11 outing shouldn’t even be close.
30. Jacksonville 27 31 24 31 31 – 28.8
31. San Francisco 32 29 32 24 29 – 29.2
32. Detroit 31 32 31 26 32 – 30.4
The other bad team the Broncos have played. That was a game in which there was definite cause for concern about the offense. Thank goodness it looks like the offense is trending in the right direction now.
