Thanks to everyone who contributed to the 2018 Broncos Top 5 Draft Survey over the past three days! Here are some observations that I took away from the results.
Total and weighted placements
| Player | Total | Weighted |
|---|---|---|
| Quenton Nelson | 99 | 305 |
| Baker Mayfield | 77 | 265 |
| Josh Rosen | 72 | 258 |
| Bradley Chubb | 81 | 245 |
| Saquon Barkley | 80 | 244 |
| Sam Darnold | 61 | 203 |
| Josh Allen | 15 | 36 |
| Denzel Ward | 23 | 32 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 12 | 20 |
| Lamar Jackson | 5 | 12 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 5 | 11 |
| Vita Vea | 4 | 8 |
| Derwin James | 3 | 8 |
| Roquan Smith | 4 | 6 |
| Marcus Davenport | 2 | 3 |
| Will Hernandez | 2 | 3 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 2 |
| Dallas Goedert | 1 | 2 |
| Mike McGlinchey | 1 | 2 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 2 |
| Cortland Sutton | 1 | 1 |
| DJ Chark | 1 | 1 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 1 | 1 |
Total placements indicate how many times a player made the draft board, in any position. Weighted placements are calculated the same way the AP calculates its top 25 in college athletics: 5 points for #1, 4 points for #2, and so on. The table on the right is sorted by weighted placements.
There’s a very clear message that emerges from this table: there are six players (that I’ll refer to as the “big six”) that emerge as the dominant desires for Broncos fans: Quenton Nelson, Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen, Bradley Chubb, Saquon Barkley, and Sam Darnold. The good news here is that, if the Broncos stay put at #5, they are guaranteed to get one of those six players if they want them.
#1 on the board
Nine players were placed on the top of draft boards:
- Josh Rosen: 24
- Baker Mayfield: 22
- Saquon Barkley: 18
- Bradley Chubb: 15
- Quenton Nelson: 14
- Sam Darnold: 14
- Josh Allen: 3
- Lamar Jackson: 1
- Derwin James: 1
The big six are again clearly set apart from the other players who got a #1 vote. Although Nelson got the highest score in both total and weighted placement, he falls into a tie for 5th at the top of the board. Instead, two quarterbacks lead the way, but then you have to go down to a tie for 5th, and then 7th to find the next mention of quarterbacks.
Quenton Nelson dominates the #2 placement, and leads at #3.
Nelson received 29 placements at #2, at least 11 more than any other player. Fewer players (eight) were placed at #2 than #1 (nine), as aside from the big six only Allen and Tremaine Edmunds received a placement there.
At #3 Nelson’s lead at 24 is closer, as Mayfield (21) and Chubb (20) are close behind. #3 is also the highest placements for Minkah Fitzpatrick (with 3 placements there), and Denzel Ward and Vita Vea (with one each).
For those who placed Nelson at #2, fewer than half had a quarterback at #1. The majority of those instead had Chubb or Barkley ahead of Nelson. For the 14 that had Nelson at #3, 5 did not have a quarterback listed ahead of him.
The top six’s dominance starts to fade at #4 and #5.
At #4, the top six still lead, but Ward (7) at 7th is right behind Rosen (8) at 6th. After Ward, 13 other players got a placement here. Chubb got the most placements at #4 with 22, with Nelson 2nd at 15.
At #5, Ward becomes the one and only non-big six player to push out a big six player. He got 15 placements at #5. Nelson and Barkley are tied for the lead here with 17 each.
Only five respondents unequivocally did not have a quarterback on their top five.
Of those five, three had Barkley at the top. The two others had Chubb and James at the top. Four of these five had Nelson at #2. Three others did not place a quarterback but also failed to properly fill out players at all five spots.
What this tells me is that, despite the presence of Case Keenum on the roster, the grand majority of the Broncos fanbase is comfortable with taking a quarterback at the 5th overall selection, should the board fall in a way where the best player left is at that position.
Trading up is not popular, while trading down is.
Two thirds of respondents were not willing to trade up at all. Of the 38 respondents who were willing, 17 were only willing to trade up for their #1 player, of which was dominated by Mayfield and Rosen.
There was almost a mirror opposite with trading down, with more than three fifths of respondents willing to move down if need be. Unfortunately, many people failed to follow the directions here, as if you were willing to trade down you should have always marked #5 as a player. Of the 54 respondents who did follow this, it was split almost in half as to whether they were willing to trade down if a big six player was on the board.
****
If there are any other observations you’d like me to take a look at, please say so in the comments and I’ll try to parse it out.