Brads NFL Picks Week Thirteen 2016
Brads Picks was 13 – 3 last week and is 105 – 70 – 2 on the season. Here’s what happened last week:
the good: (Meaning I got it right)
Detroit 16, Vikings 13 (Thursday game) – Vikings led 13-10 with 3:20 to go, but two late FGs (one with 30 seconds left) from 48 and 40 yards gave the Lions another late win. The last FG was made possible when Sam Bradford threw an INT.
Steelers 28, Indianapolis 7 (Thursday game) – Without Andrew Luck, Colts didn’t haave a prayer.
Atlanta 38, Cardinals 19 – Speedy (and diminutive) Taylor Gabriel caught two short passes from Matt Ryan and went all the way. Both QBs threw two TDs and one INT. Falcons had twice as many rushing yards (116) as the Cards. Total yards about the same. Bottom line, Falcons found the end zone more often (5-2).
Baltimore 19, Bengals 14 – One of those tough division games. Even without AJ Green and Giovanni Bernard, the Bengals kept it close. But one TD pass from Joe Flacco and 4 FGs by Justin Tucker (4 for 4) gave the Ravens the most points.
Buffalo 28, Jaguars 21 – Jags 21, Bills 20 with 10 minutes to go. A 16 yard TD toss from Tyrod Taylor to Justin Hunter made it 26-21 and a two yard run by LeSean McCoy provided the final score.
Titans 27, Chicago 21 – Bears scored the last 14 points in garbage time.
Giants 27, Cleveland 13 – Browns out gained the Giants by 47 yards but still lost their 11th straight. Giants won their 6th straight. Browns turned it over 3 times, Giants once.
Chargers 21, Houston 13 – 14-7 at the half. No score in the third. Texans turned it over 4 times, including three INTs by Brock Osweiler. Chargers turned it over once, an INT by Phillip Rivers. Rivers threw 3 TDs, Osweiler none.
Miami 31, 49ers 24 – Closer than most expected, and the 9ers even turned it over twice (to none for the Fins). Niners came close to tieing or winning but were stopped at the 2 as time ran out.
New Orleans 49, Rams 21 – Rookie Jared Goff couldn’t keep up with Drew Brees in the points department. Goff did throw 3 TDs, along with one INT. Brees threw 4 TDs and no INTs.
Tampa Bay 14, Seaqhawks 5 – Seattle gained just 245 yards – worst in their last 39 regular season games. Score was 14-5 at the half.
Patriots 22, NY Jets 17 – Cheatriots scored a TD with three minutes left after being down 17-16 (2 point attempt failed).
Cheatriots became the first of the 8 original AFL teams to win 500 games.
Oakland 35, Panthers 32 – Raiders led 24-7, then gave up 25 unanswered points to fall behind by 8, then scored 11 for the win.
the bad: (missed the call, but by one score or less)
Dallas 31, Reds 26 (Thursday game) – Washington missed two field goal attempts.
Chiefs 30, Denver 27 (OT) (SNF) – Really close game. They used up almost all of OT before the Chiefs kicked a FG that almost didn’t go in.
the ugly: (missed the call by 9 points or more)
Packers 27, Philadelphia 13 – Eagles turned it over once (Carson Wentz INT). Packers held onto the ball. Packers outscored the Eagles 10-0 in the 4th to win going away.
this week: (Cleveland and Tennessee are off this week, and that will do it for byes this season)
the TNF game:
Dallas (10-1) at Minnesota (6-5) – Oddly, both played on Thanksgiving, so they’ve both had a full week off.. Vikings could be without their starting Center (concussion), but they get their best receiver, Stefon Diggs, back after missing the Lions game. They will be without HC Mike Zimmer, who had emergency eye surgery Wednesday night (he’d been having problems with a torn retina).
Cowboys rookie QB Dak Prescott has been great on the road this year, with 10 TDs and 1 INT and a passer rating of 119.5. Vikings D will present problems and they are 4-1 at home (the lone loss in OT to the Lions) but you gotta take the Boys.
I wouldn’t put money on it, though – I think the Vikings have a good chance.
the 11:00 MST games:
Miami (7-4) at Baltimore (6-5) – Decent records for these two teams, but the Fins have 7 wins over teams with a combined record of 25-53. And the Ravens are 4-0 against a surprisingly weak (except for Cleveland) AFC North, and are 2-5 against everyone else. I expect a hard battle between two teams that are playing well. Go with the Ravens at home.
San Francisco (1-10) at Chicago (2-9) – The two worst teams in the league, if you don’t count Cleveland. I’m taking the 49ers – Colin Kaepernick put up 409 yards last week in Miami (113 rushing).
Houston (6-5) at Green Bay (5-6) – Temp should be in the in 30s, so not awful for a Texas team. But Houston is 1-4 on the road, and even though their D is 3rd in the league (per possession), Aaron Rodgers just keeps getting better – he leads the league in passing yards and TDs over the last six games.. Packers D isn’t much to write home about, but neither is the Texans O, except for the run game. Take the Packers at Lambeau.
Kansas City (8-3) at Atlanta (7-4) – Tough call, but I’ll take the Falcons at the Georgia Dome. Chiefs had a long game in Denver on SNF (they won in OT just before time expired).
Los Angeles (4-7) at New England (9-2) – Cheaters tremendous tight end Rob Gronkowski is out (probably for the season) after surgery for a herniated disc. Rams could possibly pull off a win here, but go with the Cheaters. Rams second road trip in two weeks.
Detroit (7-4) at New Orleans (5-6) – Lions off a mini bye. Lions won at NO last year 35-27, but Mark Ingram is averaging 8.1 the last four games (47 for 382). He actually averaged ten yards per carry last week against a good Rams run defense, and the Lions run defense is mediocre. Saints D has shown steady improvement the last several games. Take the Saints.
Philadelphia (5-6) at Cincinnati (3-7-1) – Eagles played on MNF Eagles are 1-5 on the road, while Cincinnati is just 2-2-1 at home and has lost their last three games. I’ll take the Bengals at home – they put up a good fight in Baltimore last week.
Denver (7-4) at Jacksonville (2-9) – Jags have been playing better lately – their last 4 losses have been by a combined 22 points and Blake Bortles has thrown 11 TDs against just 4 INTs the last 5 games. Still, Jags are 0-4 at home and I think the reigning SB champs can make it 0-5. Broncos may be on the road and a bit tired after a long SNF game but they can do the deed in Jacksonville.
the 2:05 game:
Buffalo (6-5) at Oakland (9-2) – Bills have problems at the wide receiver position (injuries) and the Bills have been weak n the passing game. Still, the Raiders are 28th in the league in pass defense. But the Raiders are bad against the run also, and here comes LeSean McCoy (Bills lead the league in rushing with a 5.3 yards per carry average). Should be a good game, but take the Raiders at home.
On an historical note, the Bills haven’t won in Oakland since 1966. That’s a half-century.
the 2:25 games:
Tampa Bay (6-5) at San Diego (5-6) – Tampa has won three in a row and is 4-1 on the road. Bucs are one of the most balanced teams in the league – 15th on O and 14th on D. Bucs pass defense is poor but the run defense is pretty good. Chargers are fifth in the league in passing. If Jameis Winston can take care of the ball. I think the Bucs can win.
Washington (6-4-1) at Arizona (4-6-1) – Washington played on T Day so is off a mini bye. Washington has a top offense and a bottom defense.. Arizona is much the opposite. Kirk Cousins is second in the league in yardage and has a 19/4 TD – INT score in his last nine games. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer has 8 TDs and 6 INTs and has been sacked 20 times in the last 5 games. Take the Reds.
NY Giants (8-3) at Pittsburgh (6-5) – Pittsburgh is off a mini bye. Vegas says Steelers minus 5.5. Giants D has allowed only 16 points per game in the last five games, but those opponents were a combined 14 – 41 – 1. Eli Manning has been up and down this season. Steelers seem to be finding a groove.
the SNF game:
Carolina (4-7) at Seattle (7-3-1) – Seattle is 32-5 at home since Russell Wilson was drafted in 2012. Carolina is playing it’s second game in a row on the west coast. Take the Seaqhawks.
the MNF game:
Indianapolis (5-6) at New York Jets (3-8) – Colts are off a mini-bye. Andrew Luck is still on the concussion protocol as of Thursday, practicing on a limited basis. His backup, Scott Tolzein, was barely passable last week in their blowout loss at home to the Steelers, while the Jets made a decent showing against the Cheaters.
Chuck Pagano’s Colts are a miserable 1-7 on prime time, and the Colts have the worst pass D in the NFL. Take the Jets.