Brads NFL Picks Week Twelve 2016
Brads Picks was 10 – 4 last week and is 92-67-2 on the season. Last weeks good and bad (no ugly last week). (off last week – Atlanta, Denver, San Diego, NY Jets)
NY Giants 22, Bears 16 – Bears 16, Giants 9 at the half. Bears made the Giants work for their 5th win in a row.
Steelers 24, Cleveland 9 – In a half empty stadium, the visiting team won.
Dallas 27, Ravens 17 – Dallas has won 9 in a row, the first time they’ve done that in their 57 year history (in the regular season). Also, this is the first time they beat the Ravens.
Detroit 26, Jaguars 19 – Jaguars 19, Lions 16 at the end of the third. Jags held the Lions to just a net of 14 yards on the ground. Lions got a TD on a 55 yard punt return by Andre Roberts in the 2nd quarter and another by Rafael Bush on a 39 yard pick 6. A one yard run for a TD and a couple FGs by Matt Prater rounded out the scoring for the Lions. Give a hand to the Jags defense.
Bills 16, Cincinnati 12 – Bengals excellent WR A.J. Green went out early in the game with what appears to be a hamstring tear. But the Bengals still made a game of it.
Cheatriots 30, San Francisco 17 – Niners made the Cheaters work for the win. Cheaters 13, 49ers 10 at the end of the third.
Seattle 26, Eagles 15 – If the Eagles had any decent receivers, they’d be really scary. When QB Russell Wilson caught a 15 yard TD pass in the 3rd quarter, he equaled the total receiving yards of all the Eagles wide receivers up to that point.
Dolphins 14, Los Angeles 10 – Rams 10, Fins 0 at the end of the third. But two TD passes from Ryan Tannehill (one with 36 seconds left in the game) gave the Fins their 5th win in a row.
Washington 42, Packers 24 (SNF) – Washington 13, Packers 10 at the half. Aaron Rodgers threw 3 TDs and no INTs and still lost. Partly because Kirk Cousins did the same thing (except for the losing part).
Oakland 27, Texans 20 (MNF in Mexico City) – At the end of the third, it was Texans 17, Raiders 13. The crowd was a huge Raiders crowd, and so, it seems, were the ref, as most observers agree that the Raiders were beneficiaries of more than a couple bad calls.
Indianapolis 24, Titans 17 – That makes eleven wins in a row for the Colts over the Titans.
Minnesota 30, Cardinals 24 – Vikings enjoyed a 100 yard pick 6 and a 104 yard KO return. Carson Palmer was a mediocre 20-38-198 with two TDs and two INTs. Vikings had lost 4 in a row.
Buccaneers 19, Kansas City 17 – So much for the Chiefs’ 10 game win streak at Arrowhead.
Carolina 23, Saints 20 (TNF) – It was 23-3 at the end of the third quarter. Carolina lost 4 starters to injury late in the game.
this week’s games: (no byes this week – Tennessee and Cleveland will have the next week off and that will take care of all byes)
The Thursday games:
Minnesota (6-4) at Detroit (6-4) (10:30 MST) – Division game. Lions have won 5 of the last 6 (they beat Minnesota in Week Nine 22-16 in OT). Vikings have won one of their last five. Thursday games are usually not well played, so I’ll bet Matt Prater wins it for the Lions.
Washington (6-3-1) at Dallas (9-1) (2:30 MST) – Division game. Reds finished strong last week against the Packers. Kirk Cousins was 21-30-375 with three TDs and no INTs. Packers D is pretty porous but so is the Dallas D. Reds D is the better one. Expect a high scoring game, and don’t take the Reds lightly – they started the season 0-2. How about the Reds in a bit of an upset? It’s a division game, after all.
Pittsburgh (5-5) at Indianapolis (5-5) (6:30 MST) – Colts QB Andrew Luck and starting safety Clayton Geathers suffered concussions last Sunday. Scott Tolzien will be the QB. Take the Steelers.
the 11:00 MST games:
NY Giants (7-3) at Cleveland (0-11) – I think the Browns will win a game this year, but not this week. They’ll start Josh McCown at QB, but take the Giants who are playing some gritty football. They rank just 23rd in scoring (tied with the 49ers) and have only outscored their opponents by 3 total points. But the Giants have won 5 in a row.
San Francisco (1-9) at Miami (6-4) – Miami has won 5 in a row. 9ers have lost 9 in a row.
Los Angeles (4-6) at New Orleans (4-6) – Jared Goff, in his rookie debut last week, was 17-31-134 with O TDs and 0 INTs. At least he didn’t have any delay of game penalties. But it was raining pretty good and Miami’s defense put a lot of pressure on him.
Saints last played on TNF. This will be a weak Rams O against a weak Saints D, and a strong Saints O against a strong Rams D. I don’t think Goff and company can match points with Brees and company in a noisy Superdome. Take the Saints.
Tennessee (5-6) at Chicago (2-8) – Jay Cutler is out, probably for the year, with a torn labrum. Matt Barkley will be the QB for the Bears. Toss out the Titans loss to the Colts last week as one of those division games. Titans should win this.
Jacksonville (2-8) at Buffalo (5-5) – Jags QB Blake Bortles has regressed badly from his good 2015 season. Bills RB LeSean McCoy dislocated his thumb last week and needed surgery when the trainers couldn’t pop it back into place. Bills WR Sammy Watkins was back at practice after missing two months with a foot injury, but WR Robert Woods is likely out. Jags have a good and improving defense but you gotta take the Bills at home
Arizona (4-5-1) at Atlanta (6-4) – Atlanta is off a bye. Atlanta’s real good offense against a real good Cardinals defense. If Carson Palmer can stay awake for this one, the Cardinals stand a chance – Falcons D is pretty bad. But take Atlanta in a Georgia Dome shootout.
Cincinnati (3-6-1) at Baltimore (5-5) – Division game.
Bengals lost WR AJ Green and RB Giovanni Bernard for the season (hammy and ACL, respectively). Baltimore would win this even if the Bengals had both players.
San Diego (4-6) at Houston (6-4) – Houston played on MNF in Mexico City, while San Diego enjoyed a bye. Chargers have a very good run defense and Houston isn’t very good at passing. Houston does have a good record at home, but I like Phillip Rivers and theChargers here.
The 2:05 MST game:
Seattle (7-2-1) at Tampa Bay (5-5) – Squawks lost RB CJ Prosise for several weeks with a shoulder injury. They still have Thomas Rawls. They released Christine Michaels two weeks ago when Prosise returned from an injury, and are probably regretting it. Safety Earl Thomas will miss the game with a hammy.
Jameis Winston threw 8 picks in the first 4 games, but just two in the last six (to go with 12 TDs in those 6 games) I kinda like Tampa Bay.
The 2:25 MST games:
New England (8-2) at NY Jets (3-7) – Division game. Jets off a bye. Ryan Fitzpatrick will start at QB. The Cheatriots still have trouble stopping the run but you gotta pick the Cheaters.
Carolina (4-6) at Oakland (8-2) – Carolina was on TNF while Oakland played at Mexico City on MNF. Carolina lost their best defensive player, LB Luke Kuechly, to a concussion last week, and had several other players injured. I’ll go with the Raiders but considering fatigue and the fact that the Panthers will want to win one for Luke, it could go either way.
The SNF game:
Kansas City (7-3) at Denver (7-3) – Division game. Denver is off a bye and is healthier than they’ve been since Week One. Chiefs are still trying to figure out how they lost to the Bucs at Arrowhead last week.
The MNF game:
Green Bay (4-6) at Philadelphia (5-5) – Packers have given up 30 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. In fact, in the last 8 games, they’ve given up 37 per game, worst in the league. Aaron Rodgers, despite no run game and no defense, is on pace for 40 TDs, which would be his best since 2011.
Meanwhile, Eagles rookie QB Carson Wentz has hit the rookie wall. He had a 7-1 TD/INT ratio in his first four games, but is 4-6 since then.
Eagles are at home and I like their defense.