2017 Compensatory Pick Projection For The Broncos

My final projection at OTC for the 2017 compensatory picks gives the Broncos two 3rd round comp picks (for Brock Osweiler and Malik Jackson), a 4th round comp pick (for Danny Trevathan), and a 7th round comp pick–the Mr. Irrelevant pick, in fact–for Ryan Harris. You will also find a list of all of the Broncos’ projected draft picks on the sidebar for quick reference during the offseason.

The Final Projection

Here is Denver’s cancellation chart to illustrate how this projection came to be:

Qualifying UFAs Lost: 7 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 3
Name Rd. APY Rank Name Rd. APY Rank
Brock Osweiler 3 $18,000,000 19
Malik Jackson 3 $14,250,000 44
Danny Trevathan 4 $6,900,000 210
Evan Mathis 6 $4,000,000 413 Donald Stephenson 6 $4,666,667 304
David Bruton 7 $2,962,500 500 Russell Okung 6 $4,000,000 318
Vernon Davis 7 $2,281,250 553 Jared Crick 7 $1,750,000 621
Ryan Harris 7 $1,950,000 672

This is the best possible scenario for the Broncos.  However, there are several aspects of the compensatory formula that if I’m wrong on, or if I’ve missed the cutoffs between rounds, the outcome could be worse for Denver.  Here are the things to keep in mind, and how they could negatively impact the Broncos’ comp pick haul.

Ryan Harris fails to make the 32-pick limit

The last compensatory pick projected is usually in danger of not making this limit, and Harris will be no exception.  The most likely way this would happen is if Sam Young does not qualify against the Dolphins, while Kelvin Sheppard does qualify in favor of them.  If that happens, it will open up an additional 5th or 6th round comp pick to Miami for Rishard Matthews, and it would push Harris to 33rd in line, out of range.  While I’m still pining for the Broncos to actually execute a Mr. Irrelevant pick for the first time in franchise history, it’s of course not the end of the world if they don’t get this pick.

Danny Trevathan falls to a 5th round value

I’ve projected that Trevathan is literally the cutoff player between the 4th and 5th rounds.  I projected the same for Julius Thomas last year between the 3rd and 4th rounds, and the Broncos got lucky and got a 3rd for him.  But it’s very possible that I’m wrong on Trevathan–though if I am, I had projected him as a 5th for much of the year, so again, not a huge loss.

Danny Trevathan falls to a 5th round value and Donald Stephenson rises to a 5th round value

While Trevathan falling to a 5th alone is not a big problem, combining it with Stephenson rising to a 5th would be.  I’ve projected Stephenson to be ten spots away from the 5th/6th cutoff, and considering that I projected too many 5th rounders last year, I’m hopeful that I’ll be correct on him.

But if both players are valued as 5ths, then they must cancel each other out.  That means no comp pick at all for Trevathan, and instead a lower comp pick for another player.  And just to make things more complicated, that pick would depend on whether the formula values David Bruton as a 6th or 7th.  I’m projecting him as five players below that cutoff in the 7th round range.

If David Bruton is valued as a 6th, this is how the cancellation chart would look:

Qualifying UFAs Lost: 7 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 3
Name Rd. APY Rank Name Rd. APY Rank
Brock Osweiler 3 $18,000,000 19
Malik Jackson 3 $14,250,000 44
Danny Trevathan 5 $6,900,000 210 Donald Stephenson 5 $4,666,667 304
Evan Mathis 6 $4,000,000 413 Russell Okung 6 $4,000,000 318
David Bruton 6 $2,962,500 500
Vernon Davis 7 $2,281,250 553 Jared Crick 7 $1,750,000 621
Ryan Harris 7 $1,950,000 672

And if Bruton is valued as a 7th, this is what it would be:

Qualifying UFAs Lost: 7 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 3
Name Rd. APY Rank Name Rd. APY Rank
Brock Osweiler 3 $18,000,000 19
Malik Jackson 3 $14,250,000 44
Danny Trevathan 5 $6,900,000 210 Donald Stephenson 5 $4,666,667 304
Evan Mathis 6 $4,000,000 413 Russell Okung 6 $4,000,000 318
David Bruton 7 $2,962,500 500 Jared Crick 7 $1,750,000 621
Vernon Davis 7 $2,281,250 553
Ryan Harris 7 $1,950,000 672

In sum, the 4th for Trevathan would turn into either a 6th for Bruton, or a 7th for Vernon Davis.  And to add insult to injury, the Chiefs would also see their comp pick for Stephenson upgraded from a 6th to a 5th.

The compensatory formula counts the entirety of Russell Okung’s contract

As you know, Okung’s deal was initially reported as a five year, $53 million dollar deal, of which would come out to an APY of $10.6 million.  However, it was later discovered that Years 2-5 of the deal came only in the form of a team option, and that Year 1 merely contained a $2 million base salary, a $2 million roster bonus, and a $1 million workout bonus that does not count in the compensatory formula.

It is my belief, based upon how the formula downgraded Brandon Browner’s contract in 2015 due to the Patriots’ own usage of a team option on his deal.  I’m also encouraged by the fact that former agent Joel Corry, one of the best resources in the media, believes the same in regards to Kelvin Beachum, who signed a similarly structured deal with the Jaguars that will have comp pick implications for the Steelers.

If I am correct, Okung’s APY for compensatory pick purposes would be only $4 million, and he’d be valued as a 6th rounder.  But if I’m wrong, and the entire $10.6 million APY is counted, Okung would be valued as a 3rd.  And that would have the disastrous effect of turning the projected 97th overall pick for Brock Osweiler into a 7th round comp pick for Davis, as illustrated below:

Qualifying UFAs Lost: 7 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 3
Name Rd. APY Rank Name Rd. APY Rank
Brock Osweiler 3 $18,000,000 19 Russell Okung 3 $10,600,000 62
Malik Jackson 3 $14,250,000 44
Danny Trevathan 4 $6,900,000 210
Evan Mathis 6 $4,000,000 413 Donald Stephenson 6 $4,666,667 304
David Bruton 7 $2,962,500 500 Jared Crick 7 $1,750,000 621
Vernon Davis 7 $2,281,250 553
Ryan Harris 7 $1,950,000 672

Note that although Okung is still valued less than both Osweiler and Malik Jackson, the highest possible CFA lost is always cancelled out by any CFA gained within the same round valuation.  This is why Okung cancels out Osweiler and not Jackson in this scenario.

The worst case scenario

However unlikely it may be, it is possible to combine some of these caveats to create an even more unfavorable slate of comp picks for the Broncos.  The absolute worst combination would be the following:

  • Ryan Harris fails to make the 32-pick limit
  • Danny Trevathan and Donald Stephenson are both valued as 5ths
  • David Bruton is valued as a 7th
  • Russell Okung is valued as a 3rd.

If that happens, here’s the resulting cancellation chart:

Qualifying UFAs Lost: 6 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 3
Name Rd. APY Rank Name Rd. APY Rank
Brock Osweiler 3 $18,000,000 19 Russell Okung 3 $10,600,000 62
Malik Jackson 3 $14,250,000 44
Danny Trevathan 5 $6,900,000 210 Donald Stephenson 5 $4,666,667 304
Evan Mathis 6 $4,000,000 413
David Bruton 7 $2,962,500 500 Jared Crick 7 $1,750,000 621
Vernon Davis 7 $2,281,250 553

Note that no matter what, the 3rd for Jackson looks to be rock solid.  But this worst case scenario turns a 3rd, a 3rd, a 4th, and a 7th into a 3rd, a 6th, and a 7th.  I think it’s highly unlikely that this would happen.  But if it does, don’t say you weren’t warned.

  • InSiemianWeTrust

    Thanks for what you do man. Also digging the draft pick side bar. Will throw up a mockery of a mock soon.

  • Sparks

    Here’s to hoping this 3rd round 3-pick haul is a whole lot better than the historically bad 3-pick 2nd round of 2009! 5 picks in the top 101. We really need some of these to hit. It’s pretty unrealistic to think all 5 will hit, but 2-3 is not out of the question.

    • SterlingMalloryArcher

      Five picks in the first two days has this draft nerd excited for April!

      • Sparks

        I know it’s a ways away, but I’m looking forward to your draft write-ups/breakdowns.

  • Lonestar47

    thanks for the work on that. I’d have zero patience to fiddle with all that. Let alone do the charts and typing for it.

    Let’s hope that we get scenario 1.