Author: Bob Morris

With the Nov. 1 NFL trade deadline approaching, prepare to see a lot of reports, rumors and takes about who is likely to be traded.

Midseason trades in the NFL don’t happen often and they seldom involve “name” players unless they happen to be in decline. Speculation about trades often comes from people who believe that teams with losing records are better off getting draft picks than hanging onto players with name value, but they don’t always follow a logical pattern.

If a team is thinking about trading a player, it needs to consider the following factors:
Continue reading Which NFL Players Are Most Likely Being Traded?

The Monday Night Football game between the Broncos and the Texans was further evidence that Brock Osweiler isn’t worth the contract that the Texans gave him.

Granted, John Elway was prepared to pay a fair amount of money for Osweiler, too, though initial reports were that he wanted to keep his average salary per year around $12M, but made his final offer at $45M over three years. On one hand, it’s a bit misleading to say Elway was wise not to pursue Osweiler because he did make an effort to re-sign him. On the other hand, Elway was smart enough not to declare “the sky’s the limit” when it came to retaining him.

What the Osweiler contract really demonstrates is the importance of teams to exercise restraint when they offer contracts to free agents. Even if you consider that the Texans only have to commit to Osweiler for two years at $37M, that’s still too much to pay for a player of his talents.
Continue reading Osweiler’s Bad Contract Has Company

Throughout the NFL, a number of teams are trying to sort out their quarterback situations and, even though we’re just entering the sixth week of the season, some teams are likely to make changes.

Some of those teams have QBs they signed to deals a couple of seasons ago but may want to get out of those deals, while others have QBs that are set to become free agents after the season and have to decide what to do next.

To think the Broncos were one of those teams who some pundits said were going to have problems, only for Trevor Siemian to show he can do well enough for the time being and that, even if he proves not to be the long-term guy, Paxton Lynch has shown potential. Other teams, though, have not been as fortunate.

Let’s examine the teams who may get talked about as needing to change their QB situations or move on from a player on the roster when the 2017 offseason starts. Keep in mind that none of these teams will make a move this season, because most of the QBs have guaranteed money or parting ways with the QB would affect the cap too much. When applicable, I will look at how moving on from a QB will impact a team’s 2017 cap situation.
Continue reading Who Might Need To Switch QBs After 2016

Hello, Bronco fans! I didn’t get a chance to put up The Morning After because I had a lot of other things to get done earlier in the week, but I did want to touch upon a few things regarding the game against Atlanta.

It’s understandable that fans would be frustrated to lose that game because it was at home against a team that didn’t have a top defense, but signs are showing that the Atlanta Falcons are a better team than they were last year. I think some of us didn’t give enough credit to the Falcons for what they can do on offense and the scheme Kyle Shanahan has implemented.

And nobody should think twice about criticizing the performance of certain players. However, while it’s fair to point out when those players don’t play well, to throw them under the bus or start questioning what moves should or shouldn’t have been made is panicking. Let’s examine the one situation everyone knows about, that being what happened at right tackle.
Continue reading Midweek Musings: Be Patient, People

Football Outsiders has released its DVOA ratings for Week 4 and is now accounting for opponents to an extent.

Although we are four weeks into the season, it’s still too early to say for certain how every team will finish overall and the full playoff picture. It’s possible for a team to start 1-3 but finish 10-6 or for a team to start 3-1 but finish 8-8. And, in recent seasons, we’ve seen multiple teams finish with unimpressive overall records but make the playoffs because their division was weak overall.

So what does it all mean for the Broncos and other teams? Let’s start by looking at FO’s DVOA.
Continue reading Broncos D Back In Conversation For NFL’s Best

We’ve often talked about how great teams should be able to beat the bad teams decisively and put them away by the fourth quarter. The Broncos did that yesterday against Tampa Bay.

Last year, that wasn’t the case. The Broncos tended to let even the bad teams hang around with them, only for the defense to come through with crucial plays that gave the Broncos the win. They had to go to overtime to beat the Browns 26-23, they won a sloppy game against the Bears 17-15 and they turned the ball over too much against San Diego to close out the season with a 27-20 win. Throw in the Ravens’ game, which the Broncos won 19-13 thanks to last-second heroics by the defense and the Broncos had their issues against several teams who drafted in the top 10 this past offseason.

Things have changed this season. Tampa Bay looks like a team that may draft in the top 10 and the Broncos had the game won early in the fourth quarter, despite losing Trevor Siemian to a shoulder injury. That Paxton Lynch was able to hold the fort down is a good sign (I’ll get to that in a few minutes). The Bucs did have injury issues throughout the game, but the great teams have to capitalize on that rather than assuming they have the game in the bag.
Continue reading The Morning After: Broncos Keep Getting Better

Last week I talked about why power rankings shouldn’t be taken so seriously, and now comes a reminder about what I said last week about the third week of the season: You can safely judge which teams are likely to miss the playoffs but not more than that.

It’s the fourth week of the season in which you learn more about which teams are heading in what direction. That’s because the fourth week is when most teams have finished one-fourth of their season. So when you look at Football Outsiders DVOA rankings, even after the third week, you aren’t going to get a clear picture of where teams are really headed.

But there are a few observations we can make about teams who started 3-0 and 0-3 and where they are most likely headed, based on what we can gather about them this season. We can do the same with teams who are ranked high in offensive or defensive DVOA, even before Football Outsiders starts taking strength of schedule into account after Week Four.

So let’s examine certain areas and ask ourselves where teams are likely headed.
Continue reading So Where Are We At After Three Weeks?

For those who looked at my NFL predictions, I had the Broncos losing on the road to Cincinnati. Turns out I was wrong, but that’s a good thing, mind you.

What yesterday’s game showed is that, while the Broncos aren’t going to dominate everyone defensively like last year, they remain a resilient team that finds ways to get it done even when things don’t go well early.
Continue reading The Morning After: Broncos Remain Resilient

In the weeks that led up to the start of the NFL season, most of those rolling out power rankings didn’t think much about the Broncos, and two weeks into the season, some still aren’t ranking them that high.

But the one thing we must remember when we debate power rankings is that we need to ask everyone who puts them together these four words:

What. Is. Your. Criteria.
Continue reading Don’t Take Power Rankings So Seriously