NFL Draft Preview: Likely Team Mindsets

We’re two weeks away from the 2017 NFL draft and I wanted to examine what each of the teams will probably be looking for in this year’s draft and the likelihood that they may move up or down the board.

One thing to remember about NFL front offices is to not always judge them based on past behavior. Each draft is different and not every team chases after players solely based on need.

I want to go over each of the teams, in order of when their first pick will come up, and what I expect each team is likely to do in its draft approach. Knowing what these teams might do will be useful in understanding who may be on the board when the Broncos make their first selection and the chances of the Broncos moving up or down this year.
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Three Decisions About Current Broncos

It’s not likely you’re going to see the Broncos consider any more free agent signings until after the draft, but once the draft is finished, you’ll not only see the likelihood of veteran FA signings increase, but there will be some other decisions the Broncos will need to make, too.

Those pertain to players who are on the current roster; specifically, what to do regarding the fifth-year option on Bradley Roby’s rookie deal and the second-round restricted free agent tenders given to Todd Davis and Brandon McManus.

While each situation might seem simple to some people, one thing to keep in mind regarding any decision is to consider all factors that can come into play and not just judge the situation based on the player’s most recent season.

Let’s examine the three players and consider the factors that will be weighed in regarding their contract situations.
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Rating The Broncos’ Veteran Contracts

As I sat down to examine the veteran contracts the Denver Broncos have given out, I thought about a way to rate contracts that made sense in terms of what’s important to a contract from a team’s perspective.

Obviously, from the player’s perspective, the objective is to get the maximum possible amount of money from the team with the more fully guaranteed money, the better. From a team perspective, it’s not just making sure the team doesn’t give more fully guaranteed money than the player may be worth, but about structuring a deal to be salary cap friendly and not overpaying a player in terms of average salary, even if the player isn’t likely to collect the full amount of the contract.

So I put together a ranking system that takes into account the three most important factors of a contract and weighed them in order of importance. These rankings do not take into account the total sum of the contract because most players will not collect the total sum.

Here is how I scored contracts.
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Would You Give An Offensive Tackle This Contract?

While free agency can be a good place to find immediate help at positions of need, you have to be careful with how you structure a deal, regardless of what the market dictates. That’s because you want to be able to get out of a deal as early as possible if the player doesn’t live up to expectations.

We’ve seen how John Elway operates with most free agent contracts. The bulk are the type he can get out of after a year from a cap and cash standpoint, though he is willing to go with a two-year commitment in some cases and, with players who the Broncos have drafted and developed, a three-year commitment. The two-year commitments usually go to players who don’t have carry too much risk.
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Making Sense Of A Possible Sheldon Richardson Trade

The Broncos have addressed their needs on the offensive and defensive lines as they have seen fit save for one: A defensive end who can stop the run and be moved to defensive tackle on passing downs. The original intent was to sign Calais Campbell, but he chose to sign with the Jaguars instead.

There has been continued talk about the Broncos possibly trading for Jets defensive end/defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson. One trade that was brought up in discussion was the idea of the Broncos sending quarterback Trevor Siemian to the Jets to acquire him.

We have no idea what the Broncos or Jets might be thinking in terms of players they want to deal or acquire, but the idea of sending Siemian for Richardon is a bad idea. That does not mean trading for Richardson isn’t possible. It just needs to be thought of in better terms, regarding what Siemian is really worth and what Richardson is really worth.

Let’s go over why trading Siemian for Richardson is a bad idea, but that a trade is still possible as long as you keep in mind certain considerations.
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Gut Reactions: Free Agent Frenzy

As always, the first day of NFL free agent frenzy has no shortage of attention-getting headlines, big-ticket signings and unexpected turn of events. The Broncos are no exception, even if some of the moves that impacted them to some degree resulted in disappointment.

So let’s go over a few topics as they pertain to either the Broncos or other teams and what we can expect as free agent frenzy settles down and the second wave of free agency approaches.
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15 Points To Remember About Broncos And Free Agency

As the clock is about to strike on the time at which NFL teams can officially announce deals for unrestricted free agents, there are a few things to keep in mind, either regarding moves the Broncos could make, the approach John Elway takes and past lessons that we should remember, but keep forgetting every time we get smitten with the big ticket free agents.
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Which Offensive Linemen Are More Likely To Cash In?

With the 2017 NFL season to begin next week, unrestricted free agency coming with it, and the common knowledge that the Denver Broncos need help on the offensive line, particularly at left and right tackle, I wanted to explore what I believe will likely happen with the offensive line market.

Although our attentions have been primarily focused on offensive tackles, I think we need to keep in mind that the Broncos might believe it’s better to take a different approach than just chasing after free agent offensive tackles, and instead focus on the best possible offensive linemen they can get in each wave of free agency. That’s because more teams are starting to focus their energies and cap dollars toward acquiring the best offensive lineman possible, rather than the old “left tackle is the priority” way of thinking that once dominated the landscape.
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Striking A Balance Between Free Agents And Comp Picks

In today’s Orange Overview, Nick has addressed the error he made in determining the compensatory pick formula as it pertained to Russell Okung. I did want to address comp picks for a minute because, while it’s disappointing the Broncos didn’t get the two third-round picks we thought they might get, that we need to remember about striking a balance between addressing immediate needs and acquiring comp picks.

I think most of us would agree that we don’t want the Broncos operating like the Packers tend to do, in which Ted Thompson seems uninterested in signing any UFA because he’s stubborn about acquiring comp picks, even when the Packers don’t have a lot of UFAs of their own that Thompson isn’t prioritizing for extensions.
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