Author: Bob Morris

As we approach the final weeks until the 2016 NFL season begins and free agency gets underway, I am rolling out my final offseason plan for the Denver Broncos.

The steps that I will list first are what I would do, not necessarily what will happen. When I first started putting together my plan, I underestimated what Derek Wolfe would get and what the market would be like for certain players. Now that more information is available, I have what I believe is a more workable plan that may get closer to what the Broncos will ultimately do.

After I roll out my plan, I will consider alternatives to certain steps I’ve taken, but each alternative means you have to do something different, whether it’s filling a positional need elsewhere or having to make a corresponding move to get under the cap.

With that in mind, here’s what I would do. The moves assume Over the Cap’s estimate of a $154.3M cap for the Broncos holds up. Again, if you wish to experiment with the salary cap, OTC’s cap calculator for the Broncos is here.
Continue reading Bob’s Final 2016 Broncos Offseason Plan

Trying to figure out exactly what type of contract a pending free agent will get can be a tricky exercise. Spotrac attempts to do this by looking at the expected market for key free agents, but what the market is that for the player could be lower than what the player actually receives. Jason Fitzgerald has suggested agents should ask for 20 percent more than what comparable players are getting, but that does not mean the player will get that amount.

I do believe, though, that the rules of thumb that Spotrac and Jason provide can be useful in figuring out what the most likely contracts will be, in terms of average salary per year. We can do this by remembering a few things about contract negotiations.

* Players and their agents will always start by asking for more than they believe they will actually get.
* Good teams will make initial offers that are at or slightly below what they expect the market value of the player to be.
* Some positions will hold a higher market value than others because that position is in demand.
* The market value for a player could be lower than expected because comparable players who signed previous contracts didn’t perform at an expected level.
Continue reading Re-Visiting Contracts For Broncos’ Top Pending Free Agents

In the aftermath of the Denver Broncos’ Super Bowl 50 win, the question that some may debate is where the Broncos defense stands among the greatest defenses of all time.

Some will point to the 1985 Chicago Bears, who dominated their opposition in the playoffs, including two shutouts in the NFC divisional round and championship. Others will tout the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, who had mediocre-at-best quarterback play from not one, but two QBs. There will be those who put the 2013 Seattle Seahawks up there, given how they held the Denver Broncos to eight points in the Super Bowl. And some will talk up the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whose defense arguably set the tone for that Super Bowl win.

In examining which defense really stood out as the best, many will roll out, for example, how many sacks that defense racked up during the season. But that’s not really the best measure because it doesn’t paint the entire picture. Let’s look at some of the stats that get tossed out.
Continue reading How Does The 2015 Denver D Really Measure Up Historically?

I’ve made a few points about the latest “controversy” surrounding Peyton Manning but wanted to expand on some of them, not because I’m interested in tearing anybody down, but because we need to give ourselves some perspective about what happens when we put celebrities on a pedestal for whatever the reason may be.

As we know, the “hot topic” following Super Bowl 50 seemed to be mostly about the way Cam Newton conducted himself at the post-game presser. Newton, of course, has been the subject of multiple discussions for his bravado on the field, quotes about how he has approached his career and, in some cases, his off-field conduct. There are people who don’t like his celebrations, others who don’t want to hear him talk about the challenges a black quarterback may face, and still others don’t believe you should have a child out of wedlock as he does.

And then there’s the other QB who started in the Super Bowl: Peyton Manning. Ever since he arrived in the NFL, he’s been promoted by a lot of people as being this All-American good old boy who represents everything that’s right with this country and a role model for all to follow. This image wasn’t crafted by Manning or his family; it was largely created by sports media and fans who put him on a pedestal.

So take a quarterback who seems to be fodder for hot takes every time you turn around, and a quarterback who gets deified more than he gets criticized, and it’s no surprise that, when the two are on opposite sides of a Super Bowl matchup, they get compared to one another.
Continue reading The Problem With Placing Celebrities On Pedestals

Several of us have gone over what the Broncos may need to do to clear cap space to make way for extensions for pending free agents. Here, I will go over the moves the Broncos are very likely to make, what the cap space will look like after that and the effect of the other moves and what that would mean for the Broncos’ ability to extend other players.

Let’s start with the Broncos’ estimated cap space and a list of the moves the Broncos will likely make:
Continue reading Broncos Likely Cap Space Scenarios

The last of my offseason primers will cover the teams that are in the tightest cap situations. Most of these teams are ones that shouldn’t be active in free agency, unless they don’t mind punting more cap hits down the road, as some have done.

I’ve focused on the five teams who are projected to have the tightest cap situations. For each team, I’ll talk about the roster moves they will likely have to make to get themselves under the cap. My talks focus on what I would do, not necessarily what these teams will do. You will note there are at least a couple of teams who have not been smart with how they handle the cap or with recent roster moves, so chances are good they won’t do what I would do and simply make thing worse for themselves.
Continue reading Offseason Primer: Teams With Tight Cap Situations

We’ve discussed the likely moves the Broncos will make to clear cap space, and while a couple of moves seem to be locks (Peyton Manning’s departure, Britton Colquitt’s release), a few others remain up in the air.

I have previously discussed Ryan Clady and how his contract could be restructured to free some cap space. I suspect the Broncos will do everything they can to keep him on the roster.

But even if Manning and Colquitt are gone and Clady agrees to a restructure, the Broncos still need additional wiggle room if they are to accommodate the franchise tag for Von Miller and extensions for key free agents. So let’s examine scenarios that involve three other players who could come into play.
Continue reading Broncos’ Cap Clearing Considerations

For anyone who is interested in knowing who are the teams in the best position to pursue big-name free agents, I have looked at seven teams who enter the 2016 season with a lot of cap space. This does not mean these teams will land the biggest names, but it does give you an idea who is in the best position to land them.

In considering players they might sign, I have not brought up Von Miller, Eric Berry or Josh Norman, because we know Miller will get the franchise tag and Berry and Norman are almost certain to get it, too.
Continue reading Offseason Primer: Teams With The Most Available Cap Space

We know that the Broncos are planning to talk about an extension for Brock Osweiler. The question becomes how long the contract should be for and how much money he should initially receive, keeping in mind that the Broncos need to protect themselves in case he doesn’t improve, but that Osweiler should get some flexibility if he not only improves, but shows he can play a major role in getting the Broncos to the playoffs and making a deep run.

I’ve previously discussed teams who some might think would come into play for Osweiler’s services but that I don’t believe most teams will pursue him. Furthermore, I don’t believe Osweiler is going to get as much money as some people think, but he’s not exactly going to come at a bargain price. Let’s examine a few things to keep in mind that will impact the deal Osweiler will actually receive.

What works in his favor is that Osweiler did a respectable job when he replaced Peyton Manning in the starting lineup. He had two games in which the Broncos trailed (New England and Cincinnati), but he capitalized on situations that allowed the Broncos to win those games. He appeared to be a good fit for Gary Kubiak’s offense, he was able to make most throws and his teammates liked him. Once in a while, he showed the ability to see what defenses were doing and adjust plays as needed.
Continue reading What Contract Should Brock Osweiler Receive?

Ryan Clady was one of the best draft picks Mike Shanahan made in his final season with the Denver Broncos. He remained steady through the two years Josh McDaniels coached the team and was off to a good start under John Fox, before a Lisfranic injury cut his 2013 season short. He wasn’t the same player in 2014 and hopes for him to bounce back in 2015 didn’t materialize after he tore his ACL.

He now enters 2016 with a $10.1M cap number, which is too much for a player who has missed so many games in the past three seasons. Clady has indicated he would be open to restructuring his contract, saying he wants to spend the rest of his career with the Broncos. We know that restructuring doesn’t always mean “pay cut,” but it’s clear if Clady is to stick around in 2016, his cap number must be reduced.

There are two ways for the Broncos to accomplish this that go beyond just asking him to take a pay cut in 2016, although each will require him to take less money for the coming season.
Continue reading How The Broncos Might Keep Ryan Clady Around