Author: Bob Morris

I'm a sports writer in real life, though I've always focused on smaller communities, but that hasn't stopped me from learning more about some of the ins and outs of the NFL. You can follow me on Twitter @BobMorrisSports if you can put up with updates on the high school sports teams I cover.

Evaluating Draft Picks

As we continue our approach to the NFL draft, it’s worth asking ourselves the question of how important it is to hit on every draft pick.

You have some people who are quick to write off any draft pick that doesn’t work out as a bust, even though the rule of thumb with most players selected in the final three rounds is they might not stick around on the roster for very long. Stories like Terrell Davis and Shannon Sharpe are wonderful, but they are the exception, not the rule.

Then there are those who declare that a pick taken in the first three rounds needs to be a starter right away or it’s a busted pick, when not every player may turn out that way. Still others would suggest that the first three rounds are for players you want to be with the team for the bulk of their careers, while forgetting free agency and the salary cap means this isn’t always possible.
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The Teams Who May Consider 2016 QB Draft Prospects

As we approach the 2016 NFL draft, we know that the Denver Broncos will likely draft a quarterback in the first three rounds. The question to ask is how many other teams will be drafting QBs early.

My belief is that, this year, it’s likely one draft prospect comes off the board early in the first round, but the others tumble down the draft board and are taken later in the first round. I also expect the other more notable prospects to come off the board in the next two rounds. This is because this year’s class doesn’t have as many prospects who are considered to be ready to make the jump to the NFL as rookies and that teams seems to be more focused on addressing other positions of need in the first round.
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Broncos Agree To Terms With OT Russell Okung

As always, the full contract details are what matter, but it seems the Broncos are confident that Okung will fit what they want to do on the offensive line

This would also signal they may not keep Ryan Clady around. Given the money they are reportedly giving to Okung, they aren’t going to have him start at right tackle. The Broncos definitely want him on the left side.

(UPDATE: Contract details are after the jump.)
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Clady vs. Okung: It’s One Or The Other

I want to touch briefly on the Broncos’ visit with Russell Okung and what it could mean, depending on what Okung and the Broncos decide to do.

We know that the Broncos have had talks with Ryan Clady about reducing his cap charge. I imagine the Broncos want him to take a pay cut, with the ability to earn money back through incentives. I also believe Clady and his agent are hopeful that they could get an additional year added to his contract as a concession for any salary reduction.

As for Okung, I think he has to realize that he’s not going to get paid top money because his play hasn’t demonstrated that’s justified. The question becomes how much money he should get and whether or not he would play at left tackle.
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2013 First Rounders: Whose Options Should Be Exercised?

As free agency settles down, NFL teams will have other decisions to make as to the future of certain players on their teams, one of those being whether or not to pick up the fifth-year options on 2013 first-round draft choices.

I’ve grouped the 2013 draft choices into categories based on what I would do regarding those players. I’ll get the obvious ones on either side of the spectrum out of the way, then go to those which I tend to lean one way but could see the argument for doing the opposite.
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Gut Reaction: CJ Anderson Is Still A Bronco

I wrote a few days ago that the Broncos’ original-round tender to CJ Anderson might have been a sign that they weren’t entirely sure if they wanted to keep him for the long term or not, and going higher might have signaled they wanted to extend him when they hadn’t made up their mind.

After they decided to match the offer the Miami Dolphins gave Anderson, I will say I was wrong about that. Instead, it does appear the original RFA tender decision came, in part, because John Elway underestimated the market for running backs.

With that said, there might have been another reason why the Broncos tendered Anderson at a low level: Because they were looking at getting every penny they could toward paying for a starting quarterback.
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Reviewing Free Agent Contracts

As we await word to see what other moves the Denver Broncos will make as the second wave of free agency is about to begin, I wanted to review some of the contracts that have been handed out to players so far.

I’ll direct you to Over the Cap’s list of free agents, which includes links to those players who were free agents that have signed deals and have their contract details reported. I wanted to look at each deal to see how good they really are from cap standpoints, cash standpoints and whether the player’s talent level justifies the fully guaranteed money that will be paid out.

I didn’t get to every contract, but started off with the ones that have the highest average salaries per year. If I get a chance, I’ll go over other contracts in a later post.
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Donald Stephenson Contract Details

Starting a separate thread because yesterday’s thread regarding new Denver Broncos OT Donald Stephenson may be getting lost in the shuffle.

Per Mike Klis’ article, these are the details regarding Stephenson’s contract.

2016: $6M in fully guaranteed salary in the form of a $3M signing bonus and a $3M base salary. His cap hit will be $4M. (EDIT: I incorrectly listed $3M as a roster bonus.)

2017: $4M in salary, guaranteed for injury only, becoming fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2017 league year. Cap hit would be $5M, releasing him would leave $2M in dead money.

2018: $4M in salary, not guaranteed. Cap hit would be $5M, releasing him would leave $1M in dead money.

So, in reality, it’s a one-year deal for $6M, then “we’ll see.”

Kris wrote that Stephenson is expected to start at right tackle.

Personally, I would expect the Broncos to draft another offensive tackle to groom, along with Ty Sambrailo. The Broncos will also need to decide what to do for a starting guard.