Gut Reaction: Broncos Draft Paxton Lynch

You gotta love it when things fall into place.

Ever since Brock Osweiler bolted the Broncos for the Texans and a contract that was more than what he may have been worth at that point, John Elway never panicked.

Others would have caved in and given the 49ers and Colin Kaepernick whatever they wanted. Or the Eagles and Sam Bradford whatever they wanted. Or chase after any veteran QB they could find, just to say they had filled the position.

Not Elway. Because that’s not how he plays the game.
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The Broncos 20 Best Value Picks

The NFL draft is tomorrow and all our eyes will be on what the Broncos do, of course.

But one thing that’s always worth watching is whether or not the Broncos will find value in the later rounds of the draft. And throughout the team’s history, the Broncos have done that a fair amount.

In fact, there are a number of players the Broncos have drafted who turned into great value picks, some which one might call draft day steals.

I have ranked those players who I believe are the best value picks the Broncos have ever made. My criteria is that the player could not be taken in the first three rounds and did not spend the bulk of his career as a depth player. I did not include any players in the pre-merger era because so many of those players didn’t sign with the Broncos.

So here’s my ranking of the Broncos 20 Best Value Picks.
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On Goodell: It’s Called Consistency, Folks

By now, you all know that Tom Brady’s Ballghazi suspension has been reinstated. Before people get tuned up with their opinions, let’s talk about something else.

You remember how the Denver Broncos were penalized for salary cap violations dating back to their Super Bowls win during the John Elway-Terrell Davis-Mike Shanahan era, right? Let me ask you to consider a few things.

Consider what would have happened if ESPN had decided to make a major uproar over the violations and how they impacted the integrity of the game. Consider what would have happened if social media was all around and people were flooding their feeds and timelines with memes about how the Broncos were cheaters. Consider what would have happened if the Internet was as widely used as it is now and everyone gave their hot takes about the implications of the Broncos’ machinations.

Finally, consider what would have happened if Roger Goodell, not Paul Tagliabue, was the NFL commissioner at the time the violations were first reported.
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A Mock Draft For You To Mock (Or Not)

So after two blockbuster trades for the top two picks in the NFL draft, and the unlikelihood that anybody is going to trade up the board prior to the draft, I have rolled out my 2016 NFL mock draft.

This mock draft isn’t necessarily what I would do if I was running each team, but what seems likely to happen given their biggest needs or particular moves those teams have made.

I also project draft day trades. I don’t look at value charts, but simply consider what teams are likely to need to part ways with to move up a few spots. I also consider which teams are most likely to want to move down and gain picks, and which teams I could see trading up to pursue a player they like.

So let the fun and your debates begin.
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The Browns And Eagles Play Let’s Make A Deal

Last week, after the Titans traded the No. 1 overall pick to the Rams, I wrote that the Cleveland Browns gained some leverage that they did not previously have.

I will say, though, that I expected a trade to happen on draft day, not before it arrived.

Lo and behold, the Browns have traded the No. 2 overall pick in the draft to the Philadelphia Eagles. The details about what each team has received:

Eagles get the No. 2 overall pick and the Browns’ 2017 fourth-round pick.

Browns get the No. 8 overall pick, the No. 77 (third round) pick, the No. 100 (fourth round) pick, a 2017 first-round pick and a 2018 second-round pick.
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The Titans-Rams Trade And What It Means For Others

As we all know, the lead story today in the NFL is the Tennesee Titans trading the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 draft to the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams acquired a couple of picks in return but are giving up quite a few picks in return. The full rundown of picks swapped:

Rams receive the No. 1 overall picks from the Titans, along with the Titans’ fourth (No. 113) and sixth (No. 177) round picks.

Titans received the No. 15 overall picks from the Rams, along with the Rams’ second-round picks, No. 43 (which the Rams originally acquired from the Eagles) and No. 45, the Rams’ third-round (No. 76) pick, and the Rams’ 2017 first- and third-round picks.
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Are You Really Learning From This Site?

I know many people who come here to Thin Air, and who visited the sites before that they enjoyed, aren’t always interested in discussing things outside of the sports realm, but as we are finding out, it’s not always possible to avoid this.

The biggest example is the shooting death of former New Orleans Saints defensive end Will Smith. It’s already drawn non-football-related diatribes ranging from quarterback Drew Brees talking about his Christian beliefs to head coach Sean Payton talking about how he doesn’t like guns.

Rather than talk specifically about that issue, though, I wanted to talk to everybody about some things to keep in mind about what everyone who comes to this site have learned over time about how to think about things, dating back to those who you liked to follow on Mile High Report, then followed them when they launched It’s All Over Fat Man, and how your desire to keep a community together led to the launch of Thin Air.
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Top NFL Prospects: What Round Might They Be Drafted?

A final resource I will provide to everyone is a list of draft prospects, regardless of position, and the rounds it appears they are likely to be drafted.

Sterling Mallory Archer has done a good job starting off with a look at the Broncos’ draft needs on offense and plans to do one for defense, too. I will leave that area to him, but it is useful to look at which prospects might be drafted in what rounds, because that helps people get an idea about how the draft board may take shape when it’s time for the Broncos to draft.

I’ve only focused on the highest rated prospects per NFL.com, which should encompass the bulk of the players who will be drafted in the first three rounds. The prospects I list are by no means the only ones who will be drafted in those rounds, and some of them may not get drafted until the final four rounds. But it will give you a rough idea about which players are likely to draw interest and at what points of the draft teams might consider them.
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NFL Draft: Team Needs And What Makes Sense

Along with knowing more about the picks each team has to work with, knowing what other teams’ needs are and what moves would make the most sense can help us determine who the Denver Broncos could be in position to select, assuming they don’t trade up.

I am still tinkering with my mock draft, but here is the draft order in the first round, the top needs for each team to fill and what I believe would be the best approaches for them to take in the first round. One team, of course, does not have a first-round pick (the Patriots) so they finish off the list with the approach I believe is best to take in the second round.
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Draft Day: Who Might Move Up Or Down The Board

As we continue to look ahead to the NFL draft, a question worth considering is not just whether the Broncos might want to move up or down the draft board, but whether other teams may want to do the same.

The ability of a team to move up the draft board may depend on how many draft picks the team has available. Having a low number of picks doesn’t mean the team won’t move up the board, but it is something to consider. Meanwhile, a team that doesn’t have that many picks might consider moving down if it wants to gain additional picks.

I will examine each of the teams, the number of picks they have and the possibility that this team may move up or down the board.
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