Author: Bob Morris

I'm a sports writer in real life, though I've always focused on smaller communities, but that hasn't stopped me from learning more about some of the ins and outs of the NFL. You can follow me on Twitter @BobMorrisSports if you can put up with updates on the high school sports teams I cover.

Why Miller Wasn’t Extended Earlier Like Watt Was

Mike Tanier wrote a good column about the importance of Von Miller to the Broncos’ defense and why the Broncos will have to pay him a considerable sum.

Tanier brings up J.J. Watt for comparison and calls Watt that “once in a generation” player who leads the pack. But as we know, Watt received a contract that pays him a lower APY salary, thanks to the Texans extending him before he even started the fifth-year option of his rookie deal.

So it’s worth asking the question: Why did the Texans do it at that point instead of just waiting until the franchise tag came along? I did some research and found some information that may not only answer that question, but explain why the Broncos may not have prioritized an extension for Miller earlier.
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What To Keep In Mind Regarding Von Miller’s Contract

Joel Corry, a former sports agent who now writes for CBS Sports, shared his take on the Von Miller contract situation and what he expects will happen.

Summarizing some of his points:

• The framework is already in place. The $114.5M total over six years is not likely to change.
• Both Miller and the Broncos will need to make concessions on the finer points. For example, Miller should get more full guarantees than Olivier Vernon did but not the cash payout for the first season.
• Ndamukong Suh’s contract is an outlier in some aspects, so don’t expect Miller to exceed Suh’s contract in every way.
• The Broncos can afford to pay Miller as their franchise player for the next three years because quarterback Paxton Lynch will play on his rookie deal at a much lower salary. By the time Lynch is eligible for an extension (2019), Miller’s guaranteed money will likely run out.
• A deal likely won’t be reached until closer to the July 15 deadline for franchised players to sign long-term contracts with their teams.

I will expand on a few of these points.
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Best And Worst Value Contracts For Each NFC Team

A few days ago, I reviewed what I believed to be the best and worst value contracts for the AFC teams. I will do the same for the NFC teams.

You can check my previous post for which contracts I considered, plus a reminder that just because one contract is the best or worst value for a particular team, does not make that a good or bad contract or among the best or worst in the NFL.
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Best And Worst Value Contracts For Each AFC Team

With offseason moves mostly settled, I figured I would sit down and look at every team’s contracts and determine which deals are the best and worst value on each team.

In doing so, I only focused on players who have signed long-term contracts beyond their rookie deals. That means players still under rookie deals or who are playing under various tags were not included.

In measuring which deals are the best and worst value, it’s important to remember that, when you are listing contracts in terms of value, that somebody has to be at the top and somebody has to be at the bottom. That means teams who tend to be careful with contract structure may have a player under contract that, for ranking purposes, isn’t good value, but in the overall picture really isn’t a bad deal. On the other hand, some teams might not have a contract that really stands out as great value overall, but happens to be the best value for players on that team.

In fact, you will find that, in most cases, the “worst value” deals aren’t exactly bad, but they are often ones that weren’t structured well. In a few cases, though, there are deals in which a team definitely overpaid for a talent.

Remember that this isn’t a case of best and worst deals in the NFL, but the best and worst for each team. So one team’s best deal may not be among the best in the NFL and another’s worst deal wouldn’t be among the worst overall in the NFL.

I’m starting this series with the AFC and listing them by division. I will go over the NFC sometime in the next few days.
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Risk Vs. Reward: A Better Way To Evaluate Offseason Moves

With the draft out of the way, the NFL offseason winding down and thoughts turning to offseason team activities and training camps, various sites are rolling out offseason grades for NFL teams.

I think there’s a better way to think about evaluating offseason moves: A risk versus reward system.

The way it works is this: Each time a team signs a free agent, trades for a player or moves up or down in the draft, you consider how much risk the team takes based on what the team will commit versus what benefit the team could receive.

So I’m going to examine the more notable moves the Denver Broncos made this offseason and consider the risk they are taking versus the potential reward if things work out. I’m only evaluating moves they made, not moves they didn’t make. (In other words, I’m not considering the free agents the Broncos didn’t re-sign or any trade attempts that didn’t happen.)
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The NFL, The Live Sports Bubble And The Networks

The other day, Kevin Draper of Deadspin wrote a column wondering if the live sports bubble is about to burst.

Draper notes that less popular sports haven’t been able to find buyers for their broadcasting rights, and while it’s easy to say that all deals with the fact the sports aren’t popular, there’s some truth to what Draper is saying. More importantly, Draper indicates the impact is more likely to impact the networks, rather than major sports organizations such as the NFL.

Draper isn’t the only one with this observation. Jessie Karangu at Awful Announcing observes that the so-called “skinny bundles” could put the typical cable bundles in jeopardy and that mainstream sports networks are becoming more conservative about what sports packages they will pay for broadcast rights.

Both columns note that the rise of digital media is giving more people options to watch televised programs. It’s led to some people choosing to “cut the cord,” or dump cable or satellite television in exchange for broadband Internet and subscribe to various distributors who offer a wide selection of programs people can watch at their leisure.

So how does this relate to the NFL?
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The Broncos Roster As It Currently Stands

Hello, Broncos fans! It’ll be quiet for a few days until the players report for their offseason workouts, but I figure it’s a good time to examine what the Broncos roster looks like at the moment and what to expect.

One thing to keep in mind as I go over the roster: This is where the Broncos fit for the time being, but that doesn’t mean that’s how the starting lineups will look for the first preseason game or how the final 53-man roster will take shape. We have seen many times before that a player who was on the roster bubble emerges and becomes a player who demands a roster spot. We have also seen projected starters wind up being cut when the roster is trimmed to 53.

I did include a few notes regarding each position and certain players. These are things to keep in mind as to what it will take for certain players to make the final roster, particularly how they will fit into the Broncos’ schemes.

(Note: I have included all the undrafted rookies I know about, but feel free to point out any of them I may have missed.)
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