First of all, I know some of you will be raising your eyebrows when you see this week’s rankings. To which I’m going to say, I know. Things may not make sense, but the criteria and the rankings I use for my Not-So-Scientific Rankings will remain the same.
I will say, though, that the rankings will tell you who are likely to be the most dangerous teams in the playoffs, and playing that role may be more advantageous than being considered the favorite to win the Super Bowl, because the latter tends to be based more on reputation than anything. Being the dangerous team in the playoffs, though, doesn’t always account for past reputation and looks closer at what the team did early in the season, to what the team is doing now and how much it has improved.
Moving on to the rankings, which are an average of:
Pro Football Focus Power Rankings
Pro Football Reference Simple Rankings System
Five Thirty Eight ELO Playoff Probability Rankings
Football Outsiders DVOA Rankings
Great teams
1. New England 2 3 1 5 2 – 2.6
2. Cincinnati 3 1 6 1 3 – 2.8
3. Carolina 1 7 2 6 1 – 3.4
4. Arizona 4 2 3 3 5 – 3.4
5. Seattle 8 5 4 2 7 – 5.2
Good teams
6. Denver 5 8 5 8 4 – 6
7. Kansas City 13 4 7 4 6 – 6.8
8. Pittsburgh 7 6 9 7 9 – 7.2
9. Green Bay 6 9 8 9 8 – 8
10. Minnesota 10 12 10 13 10 – 11
11. Buffalo 14 10 11 11 12 – 11.6
12. New York Jets 18 11 15 10 11 – 13
Average teams
13. Houston 12 15 14 19 16 – 15.2
14. Oakland 11 14 26 12 15 – 15.6
15. Baltimore 15 17 16 15 20 – 16.6
16. Atlanta 9 19 20 23 13 – 16.8
17. Philadelphia 16 21 13 20 22 – 18.4
18. Indianapolis 20 22 12 24 14 – 18.4
19. Chicago 19 13 22 21 21 – 19.2 *
Mediocre teams
20. New York Giants 27 16 18 17 18 – 19.2 *
21. Detroit 28 18 19 16 19 – 20
22. Tampa Bay 21 26 23 14 17 – 20.2
23. Dallas 17 25 17 26 23 – 21.6
24. Washington 24 23 25 18 27 – 23.4
25. St. Louis 25 20 27 22 24 – 23.6
The bad teams
26. Miami 23 28 24 27 25 – 25.4
27. San Francisco 31 27 21 32 26 – 27.4
28. New Orleans 22 31 29 28 28 – 27.6
29. Jacksonville 26 29 30 25 30 – 28
30. San Diego 32 24 28 29 31 – 28.8
31. Tennessee 29 30 32 30 29 – 30
32. Cleveland 30 32 31 31 32 – 31.2
* – feel free to debate as to whether these teams should be switched or both be placed among the average teams
Okay, so Denver slid into the top of the good teams (but is bordering on the great team category) while Seattle suddenly shot into the great teams. Also, why is Kansas City ranked so darn high? Captain Checkdown, people!
First, we have to remember that Seattle may have started slowly, but has gotten better down the stretch and just came off a dominant win over a playoff contender in Minnesota. Second, we must remember that Kansas City’s defense has been very good and the Chiefs are getting better offensively because they have moved the ball well and are limiting turnovers. The Chiefs are the team who I would not want to play in the AFC playoffs, because that defense alone can cause problems for opposing offenses. And while Alex Smith might be an average quarterback, you can win with an average QB if your other aspects are at least good (run game, defense, etc.). Just ask the Broncos, in which it’s fair to say Brock Osweiler has been average yet the Broncos play good or great in other aspects to secure wins.
It is fair to say that Pittsburgh isn’t a team one would want to face in the playoffs, though. But the same must apply to Seattle and Kansas City. If those teams get the No. 5 seeds, they’ll draw the champion of a weak division, a good chance to win, and likely be the team to face the No. 1 seed.
Of course, if the No. 6 seed wins in the first round, that team would face the No. 1 seed and the No. 2 seed gets No. 5. That all depends on who is the No. 6 seed, though. In the AFC, the Jets currently have the tiebreaker over Pittsburgh, but currently the sixth seed would have to go to New England. Does that sound like a situation that favors the sixth seed? In the NFC, if Seattle gets the fifth seed, Minnesota is likely sixth (unless Atlanta turns its fortunes around quickly or Tampa Bay wins out while the Vikings implode) and I doubt the Vikings would be favored in a road trip to Green Bay.
I discussed the AFC playoff picture the other day, but it’s worth asking: Is it really that advantageous to be the No. 1 seed this year? Or might the No. 1 seed have to get through a team that would be in great position to pull off the upset because that team is doing so many things well down the stretch?
But then again, consider that the Broncos might now be falling into the category of “dangerous team in the playoffs.” If they enter the playoffs in that “good team” category, they may turn into a team that the likes of Cincinnati and New England don’t want to play, even if those teams secure first-round byes.
Some things to think about as the Broncos get ready to host the Raiders.
