Here are this week’s Not So Scientific Rankings. For some of the rankings I looked at, I know what you are thinking… some of them make no sense. I’m not sure what Pro Football Focus looks at, but whatever they are, they are too generous to the Atlanta Falcons, who are showing they are a seriously flawed team.
I do not, however, believe any of the rankings are too biased toward Kansas City. It’s clear that Charcandrick West is a good fit for the Chiefs offense and the defense is for real. If the Chiefs make the playoffs, they will be dangerous.
As always, these rankings are the average of the following:
Pro Football Focus Power Rankings
Pro Football Reference Simple Rankings System
Five Thirty Eight ELO Playoff Probability Rankings
Football Outsiders DVOA Rankings
Great teams
1. New England 1 1 1 1 1 – 1
2. Carolina 2 3 2 4 2 – 2.6
3. Arizona 4 2 3 2 4 – 3
4. Cincinnati 3 4 6 3 3 – 3.8
5. Denver 5 9 5 9 5 – 6.6
Good teams
6. Green Bay 7 7 4 8 8 – 6.8
7. Kansas City 14 5 8 6 6 – 7.8
8. Pittsburgh 9 6 9 7 9 – 8
9. Seattle 15 10 7 5 7 – 8.8
10. Buffalo 12 8 12 10 13 – 11
11. Minnesota 8 13 10 16 10 – 11.4
12. Atlanta 6 14 16 18 11 – 13
Average teams
13. NY Giants 19 12 13 12 12 – 13.6
14. Philadelphia 10 15 17 13 17 – 14.4
15. NY Jets 23 11 19 11 15 – 15.8
16. Indianapolis 16 16 11 21 20 – 16.8
17. Houston 13 17 14 23 18 – 17
18. Oakland 11 20 27 14 19 – 18.2
19. Baltimore 17 22 18 17 21 – 19
Mediocre teams
20. St. Louis 22 19 25 19 16 – 20.2
21. Tampa Bay 25 24 23 15 14 – 20.2
22. Dallas 21 23 15 26 22 – 21.4
23. Chicago 20 21 21 27 23 – 22.4
24. Washington 28 18 28 20 25 – 23.8
25. Miami 24 25 24 22 24 – 23.8
The bad teams
26. New Orleans 18 27 26 29 26 – 25.2
27. Jacksonville 26 26 30 24 27 – 26.6
28. Detroit 30 30 20 28 29 – 27.4
29. Tennessee 27 28 32 25 28 – 28
30. San Francisco 31 32 22 32 30 – 29.4
31. San Diego 32 29 29 30 32 – 30.4
32. Cleveland 29 31 31 31 31 – 30.6
San Francisco, San Diego and Cleveland are out of the playoff race, Tennessee’s hopes are almost gone and, although Detroit and Jacksonville got wins recently, they remain playoff long shots at best.
As for the top teams, the great teams are leading their divisions and all but one of the good teams are in wild card hunts (Green Bay is a division leader). At least one average team will make the playoffs for winning a division (the AFC South, of course) but the Giants could slip into the good teams, in part to their improved play and in part to Atlanta’s regression. Of course, Philadelphia could still win the NFC East, but those chances aren’t looking good right now.
A brief note about Sunday’s Broncos-Patriots game: The Patriots are dealing with a lot of injuries on offense. They did get Marcus Cannon and Sebastian Vollmer back to help the offensive line (which is terrible — in fact, I’d say it’s worse than Denver’s) but now may not have Danny Amendola, who is having his best season, but sprained his knee against Buffalo. Julian Edelman won’t play this week, meaning the Patriots are down to Brandon LaFell and Aaron Dobson (the latter who left the Buffalo game with an injury, though he is expected to play Sunday) as their top receivers, unless they get back Keshawn Martin, who has missed several games with a hamstring injury. Tom Brady is playing well, but a lot of that has to do with his quick release. But if he doesn’t have enough targets who can get open, Brady isn’t going to be able to make the quick throws as often.
No Midweek Musings this week because I have family visiting for the holidays. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!
