Providing a home for those wishing to read and write insightful commentary on the Denver Broncos and more
Fearless Predictions For the 2018 NFL Season
“Kirk Cousins will sign a deal worth at least $29 million per year
Now that we are sure Cousins won’t be in Washington, we are also sure (maybe?) that Washington wouldn’t do something as dumb (maybe?) as tagging Cousins again and potentially being on the hook for $34.5 million. He will be the first true top-tier quarterback to hit free agency since Drew Brees, and there’s no doubt he’s going to get a contract bigger than Jimmy Garoppolo, who now tops the charts at $27.5 million per year. Cousins is coming off an extremely impressive season considering the team around him, passing for his third consecutive 4,000-yard season. He’ll be 30 at the start of the season, and the highest-paid player in NFL history.”
Well until Rodgers and Ryan pass him.
Jason remains firm that the Broncos won’t offer the money it could take to get Cousins. He didn’t even have Denver in his top 5 likeliest locations.
I’m pretty sure Jason’s called it correctly. For the most part, the Broncos have not thrown money at their skill gaps in the past, going with cheaper free agents and team friendly deals. Witness the failure to consummate the trade to bring Kaepernick to Denver. I think Taylor is more at their comfort level.
The two deals they have done that I felt were top of the market deals were Manning and Talib. Both players got paid well even if Manning’s had some protection. Both were elite players in marquee positions and both have worked out.
I guess the question is whether they see Cousins as an elite player worth the pay or not.
I don’t think it will play well in the locker room or with future free agents if Elway comes in lowball. Rest assured that news will leak probably before the offer is officially extended. They would be better off not bidding at all.
We’ll see. John Elway has gone cheap at quarterback the past two seasons, and things have gotten worse each season.
To elaborate on what I think you are saying, I certainly think it’s important to consider what Elway’s strategy has been the past few seasons, but there is no reason to believe he can’t or won’t change his strategy this year, especially when what he did hasn’t been working.
What am I saying is that I think Elway is willing and able to buck the trend of going cheap at quarterback by actually allocating a substantial amount of the team’s salary cap towards a veteran quarterback even if that means parting with some integral players such as Aqib Talib to make that happen.
This is me, every morning, until at least Free Agency.
Of late, this FO has extinguished much of the joy and anticipation of the offseason. I wonder what bonafide talent they’ll shed this year to maintain that excessive cap surplus and aquire more comp picks they rarely hit on?
This will be the year the comp pick gravy train comes to an end, no matter what they do. Virgil Green and Cody Latimer aren’t going to sign deals that bring back anything better than a 7th.
I don’t think they should decline DT’s option, but if they do, they’re staring at high potential for a 3rd rounder.
Fair Point. Kirk Cousins is a UFA, right? So he would cancel that out?
DT for a raw ‘athlete’ from Lamar? Who wouldn’t?
That was a bleak reality I didn’t expound on because why be even more negative than I already am? 😀
Everything else was predictive and speculative (which is fine), while the comp pick situation is more a reality grounded in facts.
Forget your troubles.
Fellow sports dorks, Unite!!! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/850bf9d899360ab64795768017861de8c607ad7db0028eedc7a6aa009055cad8.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ea32af1ab315d5800899dcf2b9d7a6dd97614b0cd25071a3359301c1cb4f4c1b.jpg
You just made my day! I thought I was going to have to wait until at least the 20th. Guess I need to check the baseball sites more often.
This. (Or for me November, but that’s another story. 😉 )
The part about how Denver would consider themselves good at QB if they sign Keenum agitates me to no end.
New England says they want to package 31 + 43 to move up. Per the standard draft trade chart, that would only get them to 15. Adding their first next year (I’ll assume has the value of about the 45th pick, since picks in future years are worth less, and NE will probably be drafting late again) would get them to 7. Considering the number of teams who may be looking for a QB, they may have to pay even more than that. I also think if you look historically, teams have had to pay more than what the trade chart suggests to move up.
Trading Garoppolo for pennies on the dollar may end up realling costing them.
Brady better hope he sustains his level of play for at least a couple more years or part of his legacy will be running off a massive talent for a minimal return.
“In talking to a Broncos front office member this week, I learned the team likes Keenum, and signing him would allow Denver to go elsewhere in Round 1.”
It just says they (likely) wouldn’t also draft a QB with their first pick, not that they wouldn’t look to improve the position in other ways.
I know it’s not popular, but I would be OK with Keenum – if we were then able to afford to transform the O-line into something fearsome.
Case Keenum sounds like the name of a private dick from an unpopular film serial from the 40’s. If players on the other team pick up on this they’re gonna razz us good.
I don’t think Keenum can function without protection and a running game any better than T. Siemian has. In fact, I think his nomadic career is indicative of that.
You might as well give Kelly the ball. At least he was regarded as an elite prospect at one point. Save the $20 mil or so.
Keenum seems to have better accuracy than TS. I didn’t see him “miss” on nearly as many open throws as TS consistently did (there were at least a dozen throws that bad accuracy by TS either failed to score the big play, or led to a pick – game changing plays. I didn’t watch Keenum as consistently, but the games I saw, he hit the plays he needed to.
That doesn’t mean Keenum was creating a lot of stuff more than his line/receivers gave him, but he seemed to do a lot better at taking what was available.
I didn’t realize this was unpopular.
He’s put up the best stats of any veteran QB who’s a viable option
(Maybe it’s just the weight of Drew’s pessimism that makes it feel that way.) 😉
He also had Thielen, Diggs, Rudolph, Cook, McKinnon and Murray, which sure didn’t hurt. He did most of his damage off play action, so any team that acquires him had better steal liberally from Pat Shurmur’s playbook. He may be a top 15-20 QB now, but I feel a lot less secure about his 14 impressive games than I do Garoppolo in half that many. I wouldn’t freak if we settled on him in a contract that’s escapable without too much trauma, but I still think there’s a decent chance he regresses significantly. Part of the Cousins premium is that there is little doubt that he is what he appears to be.
I guess it’s just the nature of the QB market. It’s all about unproven potential over actual results.
I don’t have anything against Keenum. I kind of admire his story and his pluck. He would be a great idea for certain situations (strong supporting cast). I don’t think Denver is anywhere near there offensively right now.
I’m not sure Keenum is much of an upgrade is all.
Well, assuming he doesn’t regress, and he works well with the coaching staff, his stats (compared to TS’s) indicate that he would be a hefty upgrade. Of course, if 2017 was an outlier, then we’d be in trouble. But I honestly believe he’s benefited a lot from his VR training and will continue to be solid, and possibly impressive.
He’s an upgrade for sure. Enough of an upgrade is the question
That is a good way to put it.
These odds give the Broncos much slimmer odds than what I saw a couple weeks ago. These seem more in line with my expectations, and imply about a 20-35% chance of the Broncos landing Cousins.
If anyone has anything more updated, I’d be very interesed
“Oddsmakers from Vegas have been quick to chime on on where he will end up playing next.”
They love to throw around the name Vegas, but no bookmakers in Nevada are taking this action. Bovada (which features an airbrushed picture of the Vegas skyline in their ad) is located in Antigua and BetDSI (which sounds like Nevada) is located in Costa Rica.
I would love to see what kind of handle they do on this kind of prop. I can’t believe it’s substantial, but they can’t really lose regardless.
Does anyone know what the odds were of Denver landing Peyton Manning in early March 2012?
I don’t, but I’m guessing they were slightly smaller than these.
I wasn’t following a site like this everyday, but it seemed no one expected the broncos to be serous players for him until he was spotted in Denver.
I couple years ago I went back and read archives of IAOFM from the end old of 2011 through when we were signing him. It seemed there was a bit more foresight that we’d pursue manning, but not much.
One thing that did stand out was how optimistic people were about the draft capital we’d get for trading Tebow. Predictions ranged from multiple firsts in the high end to a 2nd or 3rd on the low end.
My memory is fuzzy though so anyone who remembers more feel free to chime in
Clockwork Orange was predicting we would sign Manning as soon as the rumors began that Indy would release him.
That is pretty prescient! Has he put together any mock drafts for this year?
My wife and I got our passports renewed on March 12th, 2012. I remember telling the guy from the post office the most important thing happening that day was Peyton Manning being released and becoming a FA. AND where was he going to land??? We had some fun with it.
I remember the speculation about Tebow. My feeling at the time – was to get him the hell out of Denver. He and his crazies had caused so much disruption.
Here’s the lard from the morning he was about to be cut. Before that, teams couldn’t state their interest because of tampering. Broncos appeared to be mentioned by some pundits as potential landing spots, but definitely werent listed as frequently as several other teams.
Broncos announced their interest shortly after and then all hell broke lose.
Thanks for the link to the lard from that morning. I forgot how much I enjoyed reading Douglas Lee’s scribing.
I read an interview with John Fox after Manning was signed. He said that he had made the first phone call to Manning. Then – Elway took over. I enjoyed the pic of Manning at 6’5″, Elway at 6’3″ and John Fox at a little shorter walking together.
It’s definitely fun to step back into that time capsule. I wrote a piece relieving the time of October 2014 mostly using pieces from that site.
Ted wrote this piece making the argument that the Jaguars should have made a big move for Tebow, purely from a business perspective. He thought the Broncos could get Blaine Gabbert (10th pick in 2011, although he had a very bad rookie season) and the Jaguars #7th overall pick. He was clearly wrong, although in his defense the Broncos lost any leverage they had when they signed Manning. It also seemed to ignore the fact that if the Jaguars viewed Tebow as so valuable, they would have just taken him themselves in the 2010 draft when they had the #10 overall pick.
That was such interesting speculation. Elway took care of the situation via the Jets though.
Check this out:
There is some potential there. IMHO, the Broncos need new uniforms and helmets terribly. Denver’s orange Color Rush jersey with white pants would be great. It would be cool to have the option to wear the Color Rush jersey design in white paired with the option of white or orange pants.
Seems like they are about due an overhaul. Time sure flies. I can still feel my initial outrage about the ‘new’ horse, which I pretty much love now.
With the Raiders and Chargers both moving to a shiny venue soon, and the Chiefs having hardly changed anything, maybe the whole AFC West could just start over in 2020. I’m sure Nike would love to market that.
I don’t think the Raiders should change, but the Chiefs should make some slight modifications to their wording and numbers. Also, I think the Chargers should go back to their Air Coryell unis, and the Broncos need an overhaul.
I actually like the version of the Bronco flipped facing left. Thanks for posting
I like the version of the Bronco trampling that feller with the tricorne hat.
Nice concept, but I agree with the person who says it looks a little chubby. There’s a softness to it that I don’t find inspiring. But again, the general idea has merit.
Darvish to Cubs, possibly opening the free agent floodgates.
Better luck to him in Chi-town. He was terrible in the 2017 World Series.
He just needs to stop tipping his pitches.
Great landing spot for him.
Brewers are close on Alex Cobb.
On one hand, I wanted the Twins to get him, but they need to direct their payroll toward a number one who is more likely to make 30+ starts every season.
Don’t know if this was posted already, but Donald Stephenson’s 2018 contract year has been voided. https://scout.com/nfl/denver-broncos/Bolt/Broncos-OT-Donald-Stephensons-2018-contract-year-officially-voided-114936198
Laces Out posted that news in yesterday’s Orange Overview in celebratory fashion. 🙂
Ah, thanks. I had a feeling I probably was late to the party. 🙂
Doesn’t matter! It still feels almost as good as seeing Tom Brady sitting on his butt with 2 minutes left in the SB on Sunday!
Team America fuck yeah! Come to save the fuckin day yeah!
We should post it again tomorrow