Brads NFL Picks Week Fifteen 2016
Brads Picks was 12 – 4 last week and is 128 – 78 – 2 on the season. Here are the results from last week:
the good:
Kansas City 21, Raiders 13 (TNF) – Tyreek Hill returned a punt 78 yards for a TD and also caught a 36 yard TD pass from Alex Smith. Chiefs held Derek Carr to 17-41-117 and 0 TDs (and ) INTs). It was very cold at Arrowhead, and after the game someone likened the Raiders offense to a Ferrari in a Minnesota winter.
NY Giants 10, Cowboys 7 – Dallas vaunted offense was brought to earth by the Giants, holding media darling Dak Prescott to 17 of 37 for 165 yards, one TD and two INTs and three sacks and a passer rating of 45.4. Their other rookie, RB Ezekiel Elliot, still got 107 on 24. Close division game, and it gave the Giants a sweep for the year.
Tampa Bay 16, Saints 11 – Tampa’s defense is looking good, intercepting Drew Brees three times and holding the Saints to just three field goals (Saints also scored 2 on a safety).
Green Bay 38, Seahawks 10 – On the opening possession, Aaron Rodgers hit Davontae Adams for a 66 yard TD, and the Packers never looked back. Russell Wilson threw 5 INTs. Seaquacks are 2-4-1 on the road, 6-0 at home.
Falcons 42, LA 14 – Rams got the opening kick off. Ten seconds later they were behind 7-0. A few hours later, HC Jeff Fisher was fired, after tieing Dan Reeves for most losses by a head coach.
Detroit 20, Bears 17 – Matt Stafford suffered a dislocated middle finger on his throwing hand (and torn ligaments) but after getting it taped up he went back in the game. He finished with two INTs and one TD.
Bengals 23, Cleveland 10 – As expected, the Browns are now 0-13.
Carolina 28, Chargers 15 – Phillip Rivers turned it over 5 times, three on INTs. He was also sacked 5 times, and the Chargers also gave up a safety.
Miami 26, Cardinals 23 – Dolphins led 21-9 late in the 3rd when QB Ryan Tannehill left the game with a knee injury. Backup Matt Moore was ineffective for three series. Cards managed a TD but the PAT was blocked and run back for 2 points, making the score Fins 23, Cards 15. Cards got another TD and converted the 2 pointer, tieing the score. Moore then led them down field where a 21 yard field goal as time ran out provided the final score.
Vikings 25, Jacksonville 16 – Jags 16, Vikings 12 at the end of the 3rd.
Redskins 27, Philadelphia 22 – Kirk Cousins had two TD passes, one an 80 yarder, but also tossed a pick 6.
Steelers 27, Buffalo 20 – Le’Veon Bell ran for 236 yards and added 62 through the air. That’s a total of 298, which is 23 more than the Bills gained.
the bad:
Tennessee 13, Broncos 10 – Broncos started slow and missed an opportunity for a road win.
Texans 22, Indianapolis 17 – Five field goals and a TD by Lamar Miller provided enough points for the Texans to hold off Andrew Luck and the Colts. Luck was only 24-45-276 with two TDs and two INTs. Brock Osweiler was 14-24-147 with one INT and 0 TDs.
Jets 23, San Francisco 17 (OT) – Bryce Petty’s first road start. It was SF 17, Jets 6 at the end of the 3rd. But a TD with a 2 pointer and a field goal sent the game to OT. Jets took the opening possession of OT to the end zone.
New England 30, Ravens 23 – A 38 yard FG by the Ravens with 6:35 left made the score Cheaters 23, Ravens 20. But just seconds later Tom The Cheater tossed a 79 yarder for a TD. A 37 yard field goal by the Ravens with 2:03 left was too little and too late.
this weeks games:
the TNF game:
LA (4-9) at Seattle (8-4-1) – Division game. 42 year old John Fassel, Special Teams Coach, will serve as interim HC, since Jeff Fisher was fired. Rams have, oddly, won three straight against Seattle, and four of the last five. They’ve gotten big plays from defense and special teams, but with Fassel now being the HC, I expect the special teams will suffer. Anyway, the Seaquacks have won 6 in a row at home, and need a win after getting beat up at Lambeau last week.
the Saturday game (6:5 MST):
Miami (8-5) at NY Jets (4-9) – Division game. Fins QB Ryan Tannehill suffered a sprained knee in last week’s game, and won’t play this week. But veteran Matt Moore led the Fins on a late drive for the winning TD last week against the Cardinals. Jets played an OT game at SF. Dolphins have won 7 of their last 8, and I’ll trust Moore to get a win. Gonna be cold, though, so that can do screwy things.
the 11:00 MST games:
Green Bay (7-6) at Chicago (3-10) – Division game. 192nd game between the Packers and Bears. Packers won in Week Seven 26-10 (on TNF). Brian Hoyer was the Bears starting QB, but got injured and was replaced by Matt Barkley, who will start for the Bears in this one. Barkley hasn’t been horrible, but Aaron Rodgers has been hot the last few games. Take Green Bay at Soldier Field in a cold one – temp at kickoff will be two below, with 15 mph winds.
Tennessee (7-6) at Kansas City (10-3) – Chiefs last played on TNF, defeating the Raiders at Arrowhead in cold weather. It will be cold again this Sunday, but clear.
Chiefs have been winning on big plays, especially on special teams. Chiefs have allowed at least 400 yards in three of their last four games, but they lead the league with 25 takeaways, and TDs off kick returns (seven). I don’t think the Titans will be able to do much on offense, and their secondary is suspect at best. Take the Chiefs in another cold one at Arrowhead.
Detroit (9-4) at NY Giants (9-4) – Lions haven’t played a game in the great outdoors since October 2, when they lost at Soldier Field. They lost at Lambeau the week before.
It’s going to be cold for the game. and Matt Stafford suffered a serious injury to the middle finger of his throwing hand last week. That’s gonna hurt. Eli Manning has been up and down this year, and is due for an up game. Take the Giants.
Cleveland (0-13) at Buffalo (6-7) – The last time the Browns won a game was a little over a year ago, and Johny Manziel was their QB. Both teams are lousy against the run. Look for LeSean McCoy to have a big day, fueling a Bills win.
Indianapolis (6-7) at Minnesota (7-6) – Vikings win at Jacksonville was just their 2nd in the last 8. But I think the Vikings pass rush will get to Andrew Luck, and the Vikings will win a close one.
Philadelphia (5-8) at Baltimore (7-6) – Eagles have lost 4 in a row, and 8 of the last 10, after a 3-0 start. Ravens played on MNF at New England. Eagles secondary is bad and their receivers are worse. Ravens will win this one.
Jacksonville (2-11) at Houston (7-6) – Division game. Houston is not a great team but is 4-0 in the AFC South. Jax has no offense and the Texans have a very good defense. Texans O ain’t great, and the Jags do have a very good defense. I expect the Texans can do enough in a low scoring game to win.
Pittsburgh (8-5) at Cincinnati (5-7-1) – Division game. Bengals are out of playoff contention, while the Steelers are in the thick of it. This will be a tough division game in cold weather. Steelers have won 4 straight, and Le’Veon Bell can probably run through a shoddy Bengals run defense. Take the Steelers.
the 2:05 MST games:
New Orleans (5-8) at Arizona (5-7-1) – Check those W-L records. Drew Brees has had two straight games with 3 INTs and 0 TDs, and now faces the number two pass defense in the league. Both teams have good run defenses (Saints have a lousy pass defense) but Cardinals RB David Johnson will give the Cardinals the win. He’s the only RB in the league with at least 100 yards from scrimmage (run plus pass) this year.
San Francisco (1-12) at Atlanta (8-5) – Three of Atlanta‘s five losses have been at the Georgia Dome, but I can’t see them losing to a Niners team that couldn’t beat the lowly Jets at home last week.
the 2:25 MST games:
New England (11-2) at Denver (8-5) – Cheatriots played on MNF and have to play in cold weather at Mile High. Cheaters have lost 3 straight at Mile High, and I bet Tom The Cheater remembers the pounding he took there last January in the AFC Championship game. All of those three games were very close and this one will be also, but bet on the Broncos to win.
Oakland (10-3) at San Diego (5-8) – Division game. Oakland played on TNF. Chargers have been playing good lately, but I think the Raiders get a win after a cold weather loss at Arrowhead last week.
the SNF game:
Tampa Bay (8-5) at Dallas (11-2) – This might be the best game of the week. Bucs defense has been one of the very best the last few weeks. Cowboys offense was riding high until last week in New York. Are doubts creeping into the head of rookie QB Dak Prescott, who was pretty awful last week? Buccaneers are forcing a lot of turnovers and have held opposing QBs to just a 62 rating lately.
the MNF game:
Carolina (5-8) at Washington (7-5-1) – CB Josh Norman, who was a Panther last year, is a Red now. It’ll be a story line if you watch the game, but who really cares? Another cold game, and I’ll take the Reds here.