Brads NFL Picks Week Eleven 2016
Brads Picks was 4 – 10 last week and is 82-63-2 on the season. Here’s the good, bad and ugly from last week: (off last week – Buffalo, Detroit, Indianapolis, Oakland)
the good:
Washington 26, Vikings 20 – Vikings scored all 20 points in the 2nd quarter, while the Reds scored 7, 7, 6 and 6 in the various quarters. So, 20 – 14 at the half. Close game, and the Vikings were never out of it until the very end.
Tennessee 47, Packers 25 – After one quarter, the Titans had gained 261 yards; the Packers had gained 26. DeMarco Murray had a 75 yard TD run and also threw a TD pass. The score was 21 – 0.
Rams 9, NY Jets 6 – 2nd year QB Bryce Petty threw one TD (extra point attempt failed) and he almost had another but the long pass was a bit too high. He has an INT on his record but the ball was actually taken out of the receiver’s hands by the DB. Case Keenum didn’t throw any INTs (he had 8 in the last 4 games) but three FGs by the Rams did the trick.
Arizona 23, 49ers 20 – Cards turned it over 4 times.
the bad:
Broncos 25, New Orleans 23 – Both QBs threw 2 INTs, but Drew Brees had three TDs while Trevor Siemian had two. The play of the game came with 1:22 left. Brees had just thrown his 3rd TD to tie the score at 23. As the ball was snapped for the PAT attempt, Broncos rookie safety Justin Simmons jumped over the snapper and blocked the kick. The ball was grabbed by fellow rookie safety Will Parks who ran it all the way to the end zone for 2 points.
Chiefs 20, Carolina 17 – Chiefs were down 17-0 at one point, but the score was tied with 30 seconds left. Panthers had a completion to Kelvin Benjamin but Marcus Paters took the ball away. That led to the winning FG for the Chiefs.
Texans 24, Jacksonville 21 – Brock Osweiler threw 2 TDs and the Texans got another off a 42 yard pick six. First road win for the Texans this season.
Dolphins 31, San Diego 24 – Phillip Rivers threw 2 TDs and 0 INTs during the first three quarters. Then he threw 4 INTs in the 4th. One was a pick 6 when the score was 24-24.
Cowboys 35, Pittsburgh 30 – Cowboys rookie RB Ezekiel Elliot ran for two TDs in the closing minutes. The last was a 32 yarder with 9 seconds left.
There were 7 lead changes in the game.
Seahawks 31, New England 24 (SNF) – Quacks got a little payback for SB 49. Late in the game, the Cheaters had a first and goal from the 2. So they had Brady run it up the middle. Gain of one. Then a handoff to Blount. Same result. Then yet another run by Brady for no gain. Finally a toss to Gronkowski in the end zone but the big fella got tangled up with Kam Chancellor and the pass was incomplete.
There were 7 lead changes in the game.
NY Giants 21, Bengals 20 (MNF) – Eli Manning threw 3 TDs. Giants defense consistently forced the Bengals into third and long situations. Should have known better than to go with Andy Dalton on prime time.
the ugly:
Philadelphia 24, Falcons 15 – Eagles got 208 yards (and 2 TDs) on the ground; Falcons were held to 48. Matt Ryan threw a 76 yard TD in the 4th to give the Falcons a 15-13 lead. But Ryan Matthews 5 yard TD run, along with a 2 point conversion, made it 21 – 15.
Tampa Bay 36, Bears 10 – Bucs finally won a home game.
Baltimore 28, Browns 7 (TNF) – Browns started rookie QB Cody Kessler. Despite a 7-6 halftime lead over the Ravens, Browns HC Hue Jackson decided the Browns “needed a spark” so he put 37 year old Josh McCown in. You know how that worked out And for more evidence of how inept the Browns are, they had to call a timeout before the first play of the game (after the kick off) because they had 12 men on the field.
this week’s games: (off this week – Atlanta, Denver, Jets, San Diego – only one of which won last week)
the TNF game:
New Orleans (4-5) at Carolina (3-6) – Division game. Both teams lost last week, even though they were at home. Carolina won both games last year, by a total of 8 points. Saints won the first game this season (Week 6) 41-38. Close call, but I think the Saints are more together.
the 11:00 MST games:
Chicago (2-7) at NY Giants (6-3) – Giants have won 4 straight. Bears WR Alshon Jeffery has been suspended for four games, and it’s a second road game for the Bears in a row. Even with Jeffery, the Bears have averaged just 16 points per game, which puts them at 31st in the league, better than only the Rams (and worse than the 0-10 Browns). Take the Giants.
Arizona (4-4-1) at Minnesota (5-4) – Two former first overall picks, QBs Carson Palmer and Sam Bradford, oppose each other. Both teams have good defenses, but the Cardinalshave a great threat at RB in David Johnson, something Vikings fans can only dream about. Vikings have lost 4 in a row.
Baltimore (5-4) at Dallas (8-1) – Ravens lead the league in defense (total yardage surrendered) but I’ll bet on the Dallas offense. Should be a decent game, though.
Tennessee (5-5) at Indianapolis (4-5) – Division game. Colts beat the T’s a month ago 34-26 (which makes 10 straight wins over the Ts) and are coming off a bye. But the Titans have scored at least 25 in their last six games, and have the second best offense (in terms of yardage) in the league.
Colts won at Green Bay 31-26 two weeks ago; Tennessee beat the Packers last week 47-25. I look at the Colts, off a bye, with their ten straight wins over the Ts and want to pick them. But I can’t – the Titans are playing too good these days.
Buffalo (4-5) at Cincinnati (3-5-1) – Bills lost three straight, then had a bye last week. Bengals lost to the Giants on MNF. Bills have the best run game in the league (yards per carry). But they are lousy against the pass and A.J. Green is one of the best wide outs in the league. And the Bills have given up 34 points per game in the last three (@Miami, Patriots, @ Seattle). I was going to take the Bengals at home, but then I remembered the Bills are off a bye and the Bengals were on the road Monday night.
Pittsburgh (4-5) at Cleveland (0-10) – Division game. Steelers have lost three in a row but the Browns have lost 10.
Jacksonville (2-7) at Detroit (5-4) – Detroit is off a bye. Jags offense isn’t very good. Jags have a good defense but Matt Stafford can handle them. Take the Lions.
Tampa Bay (4-5) at Kansas City (7-2) – Chiefs have won 5 in a row, and ten straight at Arrowhead.
the 2:05 MST game:
Miami (5-4) at Los Angeles (4-5) – Second straight game on the west coast for the Fins (San Diego last week) but they stayed there during the week. Rams played in New York last week. Rams have the 7th best defense (yards surrendered), Fins are 17th.
Rams will start rookie Jared Goff at QB. I don’t know if that’s because they’ve decided he’s ready or if they just gave up on Case Keenum. I really respect the Rams defense (especially since they have no offense) but gotta go with the Dolphins here because I have no idea what Goff will do.
the 2:25 MST games:
Philadelphia (5-4) at Seattle (5-2-1) – Squacks are allowing just 17.6 points per game (2nd best in the league) but the Eagles only allow 17.8. Quacks give up 338.4 yards per game; Eagles give up 323. So two good defenses, at least in the red zone. But the Eagles are 1-4 on the road this year. Take the Quacks.
New England (7-2) at San Francisco (1-8) – The New England Cheaters got embarrassed on SNF last week and will take it out on the hapless 49ers.
the SNF game:
Green Bay (4-5) at Washington (5-3-1) – Packers have lost 4 of their last 5, and this is their second road game in a row. Their defense has been terrible. Washington is a solid and steady team.
the MNF game:
Houston (6-3) at Oakland (7-2) (in Mexico City, at 7,500 feet) – Oakland had last week off. A road game for both teams, and the Raiders have been much better on the road this year. Raiders aren’t very good stopping the pass, but the Texans aren’t very good at passing. Take the Raiders. But it might come down to who has the better oxygen bottles.