WIDE RECEIVERS
PPR, naturally.
| DeAndre Hopkins caught 115 balls last year and had zero drops. He has put up All Pro caliber stats three of the last four years, or whenever he didn’t have Brock Osweiler throwing to him. Davante Adams was spectacular and consistent last season, even as his team rarely exhibited either of those qualities. He never scored fewer than 16 points in any week last season. |
| Michael Thomas caught 125 of 147 targets last season in a display of efficiency never before seen. His catch rate of 85% was the best by a wide receiver since 1992, the first year that statistic was tracked. Julio Jones is Julio Jones. JuJu Smith-Schuster is a human puppy dog. People with short memories and no grasp of context will point to his quiet week 17 without Antonio Brown last year as proof he will struggle this year as the Steelers main weapon. But he was WR1 in fantasy football the three weeks Brown missed at the end of the 2017 season. Draft with confidence. Odell Beckham is going to play for a quarterback he doesn’t have to carry for the first time. If he can stay healthy, he will put up crazy numbers. Tyreek Hill is trash and I wouldn’t own him in a home league. If he dropped past 20 overall in a national contest, I would have to consider him. Bottom line is I would rather own him than get beaten by him. |
All of the players above could finish as WR1 this year. Things quickly get strange because pretty much everybody after this has some questions surrounding them.
| Mike Evans is the clear top option below the top seven wideouts. Arians arrival will only mean good things for him. Antonio Brown is on my do-not-draft list now. Just too much bullshit. Keenan Allen has been a stud the last two years. I’m taking the Chargers word that his ankle injury is indeed minor and no threat to week one. T.Y. Hilton was nice value before Luck retired. Don’t let him slide too far now. Amari Cooper either has plantar fasciitis or, as the team said, an intrinsic muscle strain in his foot. Some people say this isn’t a thing and the Cowboys made it up. This is the sound of me passing on Cooper. Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are likely due for a massive target reduction, so they’re listed too high. Thielen saw 19 targets in week three alone. Zimmer decided he liked it when they began running the ball late in the year and Thielen saw 19 targets the final four weeks combined. Diggs is being rumored as on the move for Trent Williams. Lots of uncertainty here. Chris Godwin is ripe for a massive breakout. This is no secret. Arians said he’ll never leave the field and could catch 100 balls. I’m trying to get my shares, but the hype train is going full speed now. Kenny Golladay is a fantastic young receiver and I wish he was in a better situation. Baby Megatron was the man last year, but Marvin Jones is healthy now and the Lions want to run more. Golladay will remain the number one receiver, but he may have trouble building on last season’s breakout. A.J. Green deserved better than to be drafted by the Bengals. The thin but explosive wideout only missed ten games in his first 7 Pro Bowl seasons, but last year ended prematurely and this season is already due to be truncated by an ankle injury. Tyler Boyd is poised to take over as the main target in Cincy and he’s quite capable. I expect the Bengals to trail a lot, so the game scripts will be positive for Boyd. Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are all quality reeceivers, but they’re likely to get in each other’s way this year and I’m not the world’s biggest Goff fan. My preference is the way they’re listed and Cooks is the only one I’m likely to own. Tyler Lockett was arguably the most efficient WR in the NFL last year, even more so than Hopkins or Thomas, but with a paltry 71 targets all year – 99 fewer than Julio Jones – Lockett was easily the most underutilized. His average depth of target was 13.6 yards and his catch rate was a stellar 81.4%. You just don’t see that. Russell Wilson’s QB rating on balls targeted to Lockett was a perfect 158.3, the first time that’s been recorded. The Seahawks say they want to get him more involved, but expecting a repeat of this kind of magic in a Brian Schottenheimer offense is likely to lead to disappointment. D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel are both superb athletes and a couple of greased pigs after the catch. Moore is being drafted a couple rounds sooner, but Samuel is the guy I really like this year. I’m trying to get him on every team. Julian Edelman is annoying even by Patriots standards, but they have to aim Gronk’s departed targets somewhere and it probably won’t be at a tight end. Mike Williams had a very productive sophomore season and will see the deeper targets in the Charger offense now. I still view him as a deep threat, but they say he’ll begin working all levels of the field. Calvin Ridley burst on the scene with six touchdown receptions in three games, but he quieted down considerably after that. Julio is a target hog, so Ridley’s role in the game plan will always be subordinate. He is an extremely hard worker who will maximize his talents and opportunities. |
This next group are guys that I’m fading to one degree or another.
| Allen Robinson is just a guy I’ve always found to be a bit overrated. He had the one massive season and has never approached those numbers since. It’s not all his fault. Bortles was like a four year bad ball drill and Mitch Trubisky leaves a lot of points on the field as well. Jarvis Landry is happy to be playing with his friend again, but OBJ will vacuum up a lot of targets as will a developing David Njoku. Not at this ADP. Alshon Jeffery is another ADP mystery. Fewer than 65 catches and 850 yards four straight years and only one big touchdown year. Don’t chase touchdowns as they’re regression’s favorite candy. Sammy Watkins is the God of Undeserved ADP. His fantasy point total the last three years barely edges what DeAndre Hopkins tallied last season. Avoid. |
| Marvin Jones is an elite deep threat, but Golladay has taken over as the number one and the Lions plan to run more. I still expect Marvin to run under his share of deep balls and have a productive season. James Washington is a guy I’m trying to own on every team. Complete receiver who competes his ass off. Elite ball tracker who presents a unique challenge for defensive backs due to his peculiar shape. Short, but wide through the shoulders with really long arms. Nobody in the league is really built like him. The Steelers may decide to be really stupid about this the first couple of weeks while they give Donte Moncrief number two reps, but it won’t last. Courtland Sutton and Emmanuel Sanders need no introduction. I think Sutton has a higher ceiling with a higher ADoT and more red zone action. I think Sanders has the higher floor, even with his age and surgeries. Sanders return kind of throws DaeSean Hamilton‘s value down a well. Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald will be in an offense that might throw the ball close to 700 times. I figure 100 targets will go to David Johnson and rookies Andy Isabella and KeeSean Johnson will divide another couple hundred with Michael Crabtree. That will still leave a whole bunch to go around and I expect Kirk to see most of them. He seems tailor made for this offense. Robby Anderson is a slender but explosive deep threat. He has good chemistry with Darnold, but might always be kind of a feast or famine guy. I don’t think this is set in stone as he seems capable of doing more if given the chance. Will Fuller is kind of a poor man’s Robby Anderson in that they’re utilized the same way. Fuller’s problem is a litany of leg injuries. Best ball beast. Dede Westbrook is polarizing among fantasy analysts. I’ve heard big fans and people who preach caution. I’m fairly bullish. He’s an exceptional route runner and I think having a more accurate QB might unlock another level in his game. Keep baby shark D.J. Chark on the radar. Clueless last season, he was the Jags camp MVP this summer. Corey Davis is not quite as good as I expected him to be, but he’s still very good. His quarterbacks, however, are not. They will frustrate you. Davis is worth owning, but ideally he’s your WR3, so his bad weeks won’t kill you. Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are both a year older and smarter and they no longer have a head coach who makes everything twice as hard as it needs to be. MVS appears to have the edge, but Allison is a terrific athlete in his own right. They may bleed away enough looks from each other to ding their individual value and Adams is unquestionably The Man. Dante Pettis has been a punching bag for Niner fans after Kyle Shanahan called him out in training camp. Lightning fast and just as quick. Take the discount with a smile. DeSean Jackson and Carson Wentz are looking like a solid combination. As always, Jackson is a best ball monster, but is a viable WR3 every week, even in PPR. John Brown will be frustrating outside of best ball formats with Josh Allen throwing the ball in his general direction. Zay Jones is the WR to own in Buffalo if you really think you need to own any. Anthony Miller is another kid I’m very high on this year. A recurring shoulder issue held him back last year, as did his quarterback who missed a wide open Miller more than once downfield. Football addict with supreme confidence. I have multiple shares. |
| Keke Coutee could have a very nice season as Houston’s slot guy. He had some big games last year and was popular in early drafts until spraining his ankle. He’s basically free now and only just rising back up draft boards. Golden Tate‘s “I don’t know nothing about birthing no babies” defense did not resonate with the league office and he will miss the first four games in a shaky offense. Value will intersect opportunity at some point if your bench can accommodate as he will get the slot assignment. Sterling Shepard‘s thumb is reportedly healed enough to play week one, but he’s going to cede slot reps to Tate as soon as he returns and Shepard is much less effective outside. Also, Eli. How many negatives do you need? Josh Gordon can still play and the Pats have targets up for grabs. Let your own sense of risk aversion be your guide. I’m done with this roller coaster. Tyrell Williams will average around 10 points a game for you. Unfortunately you can expect a handful of games over 20 points and a whole bunch between 2 and 6. Michael Gallup made progress all year and is having a nice camp, but Dak and the cowboy offense can’t support two fantasy WR. DeVante Parker will suck some people in again, but the Dolphins figure to be wretched and if I have to have a piece of that action, give me open field demon Albert Wilson with my final pick or Kenny Stills once he’s emancipated. Jamison Crowder is developing a solid rapport with Sam Darnold, but his ceiling is fairly capped as a tiny possession receiver in a offense that will not be uptempo. Adam Humphries is exactly the kind of security blanket weak QB’s like Mariota and Tannehill naturally gravitate towards. Early returns suggest Humphries will be heavily targeted. Tre`Quan Smith was a WR I loved last summer, but he disappeared during the regular season except for a couple of monster weeks. Thomas and Kamara get all the balls from Brees, so I can’t tell you Smith’s situation will improve dramatically. Definitely a dude to own in best ball, though. Deebo Samuel is likely to see significant reps right away. Just a beast in the open field. He’s built like a running back and he plays with a chip on his shoulder. Fellow Niner rookie Jalen Hurd grew too tall for running back and now he’s another YAC monster in the making. These two are the reason Dante Pettis is getting roasted by SF sport talk for being “too soft.” |
I have to wrap up the WR segment, so I’m going to finish with some other rookies to keep an eye on this season.
| J.J. Arcega-Whiteside is as good as I promised he would be and he’ll likely have some role right away. Mecole Hardman was a hot commodity when it looked like Hill would be suspended, but the speedster may still have stand alone value. Terry McLaurin is a baller, but Washington’s passing game will struggle all year, especially with Trent Williams asking out. Still, someone has to get the targets and their veteran wideouts are such a sad joke. Andy Isabella is suffering growing pains in AZ and it might take a while for him. Fellow rookie KeeSean Johnson has thoroughly outplayed him. Miles Boykin appears to be further along than Marquise Brown but I’m staying away from that passing game. Preston Williams, from Colorado State, has been stellar for the offense starved Dolphins this summer and could wind up starting week one. Phenomenal physical tools but a long history of being a major knucklehead. |
I could probably cover at least another dozen guys, but this is likely deep enough for most leagues. Very probable in this deep field that I skipped someone, so let me know if I missed anyone. Or of you want to hear more than just these capsule comments about someone.
TIGHT ENDS
| Travis Kelce is a viable pick among the upper tier WR. He posts similar numbers and the positional scarcity is a factor. It can be tricky to draft a TE real early in a 12 team draft, especially in leagues where running backs fly off the board extra quickly. George Kittle is great value in most drafts. He goes behind Ertz as often as not and he’s much better, IMO. Fantastic athlete who benefits greatly from Shanahan’s scheme. People are wildly overthinking him. The argument against him is the Niners had no weapons last year and a third string QB relied on his tight end too much. These rookie WR will not relegate Kittle to an afterthought and playing with a better QB in a more potent offense is actually a good thing. Draft with confidence and enjoy the YAC this time. Zach Ertz is a stud, but last season was a career year that saw him set outlier type career highs in catches and yardage. I just expect regression that will bring him back down to his likely career norms. Another factor could affect him as well and I may as well discuss it here. Dallas Goedert is probably better than Ertz already. Pedersen will make sure he has stand alone value and he would immediately become a top three TE the instant Ertz is injured. I’m stashing him like mad. A sprained ankle early in camp depressed his value perfectly. O.J. Howard is a freak and possibly on the verge of a big breakout. Arians hasn’t focused on the tight end traditionally in his offense, but he’s no idiot. Evan Engram is about to become the perfect storm of talent and opportunity. The Giants have few weapons in the passing game and Barkley and their fascination with slot receivers ensures the athletic Engram will see more routes downfield, which he is quite capable of running and winning. Hunter Henry is being placed in this tier even though I’m not sure he deserves it yet. He has the talent and Antonio Gates is finally gone, so he will have the chance to make good on his projections. |
| Jared Cook has never really blown up before last season. He seems to be in a great spot, but stealing looks away from Thomas and Kamara is tough. Regression still finds him in a far superior offense. Eric Ebron is a great place to talk about regression. Every analyst leads off commentary about Ebron by saying, “don’t expect 14 touchdowns again,” because we needed to be told he wouldn’t accomplish a feat no tight end ever has before. The already skeptical drafting community freaked even harder when Luck retired, but it’s an overreaction. Brissett seems very likely to use Ebron as a security blanket and I don’t expect Reich to stop calling his number in the red zone, either. The return of Jack Doyle is seen as another red flag, but I think Indy will focus on the more dynamic athlete. Consider taking the discount. David Njoku is kind of OJ Howard light. Terrific athlete who might struggle for meaningful looks amid his Pro Bowl teammates. Vance McDonald brings the YAC, but his target share was tiny in Pittsburgh. Will that improve with Antonio Brown gone? I think the Steelers will try harder to get the ball into the hands of versatile Jaylen Samuels than their stiff-arming open field terror of a tight end. Austin Hooper, Trey Burton and Kyle Rudolph are solid guys without much upside. Burton is probably the one most capable of another level. Delanie Walker, Jimmy Graham and Greg Olsen are getting near the end. Sprint to the waiver wire and grab Ian Thomas the second you see Olsen limping. Jordan Reed is still athletic for the position and just minutes away from his next disabling injury or terrifying concussion. Maybe a solid guy to start out with if you’re planning to stream tight end. Mark Andrews, Chris Herndon, Darren Waller, T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant are all young guys with big upside. Herndon is dealing with a 4 game suspension, but is very good and Darnold likes him. I think any of them are worth taking flyers on if you have the roster space. I wouldn’t waste my time on Mike Gesicki, though. It’s just not happening for him. Jason Witten is back and I’ll bet anyone he posts numbers within 10% of his career averages. |
DEFENSES
| Denver and it’s not home cooking. The Jets, Packers and Colts align pretty well as cheap backup defenses for the Broncos. I know most leagues don’t have rosters large enough to carry two defenses, but you have the information if you want it Chicago Jacksonville Los Angeles (LAC) Los Angeles (LAR) Minnesota Baltimore Cleveland New Orleans Philadelphia Buffalo Dallas Houston Largely guesses here. No position in fantasy football has more yearly variance. |
KICKERS
| Justin Tucker Greg Zuerlein Harrison Butker Wil Lutz Michael Badgley Robbie Gould Ka`imi Fairbairn Aldrick Rosas Stephen Gostkowski Matt Prater Jake Elliott Jason Myers Adam Vinatieri |