Some disclaimers. I play in 10 and 12 team leagues. Always PPR and the rosters tend to be large. The 10 team Cutline leagues have 26 man rosters and 12 team PrimeTime leagues have 20 man rosters. As such, I will view some players more enthusiastically than someone with a six man bench because I can afford to wait on playing time opportunities to crystallize. These will be necessarily short so I can cover more players, but I’m happy to discuss any player at more length if anyone expresses interest.
QUARTERBACKS
Most people will tell you to wait on quarterback and it’s generally good advice. That said, I see the quarterback position in tiers like any other and I don’t want to wait so long that I wind up quietly hating my QB’s all year. If people are willing to wait until round 7 or 8 before the run starts, I like getting a top five or top ten option if possible.
Patrick Mahomes will cost you a third round pick in most leagues, which is a high price to pay in a 12 team league. If he falls into the late third, early fourth round of a 10 team draft, I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking him. Even if his numbers decline by 20%, he’s going to finish the season as QB1 and I doubt he falls off that much. Still surrounded by elite weapons and unlike most of the other top QB’s, not many question marks outside of regression.
Deshaun Watson is a legit superstar and he throws to the most dependable WR in football. His offensive line tries to get him murdered every week.
Aaron Rodgers was a careless omission. Thanks to MakeitStout for pointing out his absence. I like him this year and already own shares. I have him pretty even with Mayfield, but just slightly riskier. Mike McCarthy really made Rodgers’ life unnecessarily difficult with over aggressive play calls that put tons of pressure on his quarterback. Instead of giving Aaron Jones carries, he had Rodgers attempting low percentage passes downfield to mostly inexperienced receivers. When all of these guys except Adams dropped passes or had mental errors, Rodgers would lose trust in them. I think he’s in for a very good season under Matt LaFleur.
Baker Mayfield is polarizing from a personality standpoint, but it’s hard to dispute his talent, his drive to succeed, or his array of weaponry. I will own him a lot.
Andrew Luck is risk/reward writ large. What we know: the Colts lie about Andrew Luck injuries and the league ignores it. What we don’t know: almost everything else, including the exact nature of this injury. That said, I took a ninth round flyer on him with the 85th pick. His ADP if healthy would be half that number.
Carson Wentz is an elite talent and the injury reputation is overblown to me. I think getting a solid QB2 is prudent, but I’m expecting Wentz to start and play well in 16 games this year.
Matt Ryan is not a sexy pick, but he puts up quality numbers year after year. Julio is there and Calvin Ridley is a quality WR2.
I would consider the above to be Tier one, but Mahomes is really a tier unto himself.
Jared Goff has three great wideouts and an innovative coach, but I don’t trust him. Fangio and Belichick really exposed him last season. He’s going to have to reprove himself to me. I’m going to keep avoiding him.
Jameis Winston is a knucklehead, but he’s in a good situation for fantasy success. Evans/Godwin/Howard will make any QB look good.
Russell Wilson was extraordinarily efficient last season and it will be hard to repeat in a Brian Schottenheimer offense. Maybe a worse defense will force him to throw more, but I like him as a QB2 this year.
Drew Brees is still a fine option, but he is 40 now, he plays noticeably better at home and he faded in December last season.
Lamar Jackson will be a better fantasy option than many think. His soon to be unprecedented number of QB rushing attempts will set a pretty solid floor each week.
Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger should each have another productive season in their gnarled bodies. You can get either one cheap in most drafts if you can tolerate the old man smell in the locker room.
Cam Newton was a guy I was fading before the foot problem. He’s been living on borrowed time with that playing style for awhile now. I hope this means he stay in the pocket more and gets the ball to his playmakers instead of playing duck the linebacker.
Kyler Murray might throw the ball over 600 times and rush for over 600 yards. The Cards don’t have to be good for this to have significant fantasy league value.
Josh Allen is another guy who will do a lot of damage with his feet. I could endorse him as a QB2 if you have a top five starter. His real value right now is in best ball leagues. He was the top scoring fantasy quarterback over the last six weeks of 2018. Sounds awesome, but half of the points he scored in those games came in two meetings with a Dolphin team desperate to get Adam Gase fired.
Mitchell Trubisky and Dak Prescott can both run a little bit, but they both leave a lot of points on the field and Amari Cooper’s foot issue concerns me.
Kirk Cousins is going to throw the ball a lot less this year and he has always been a volume guy. Also talk of trading Diggs. I likely won’t own him.
Sam Darnold has shown marked improvement this season and I think he’s a viable QB2.
Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, Nick Foles and Andy Dalton figure to hold their jobs all year barring injury. Any one of them could put together a solid season, but you should aim higher, even in your backups.
Fuck Tom Brady
RUNNING BACKS
Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara should be atop your player rankings unless you’re in a really strange format. You can nitpick anyone of these guys and place them in any other you like, but I wouldn’t pick anyone else top three unless Zeke signs in the next couple of days.
Ezekiel Elliott‘s situation is well known. The risk/reward ratio lessens each pick he drops after four, but I think I would be fine with DeAndre Hopkins at this point. He actually outscored Zeke by five points last season and appears poised for another great year.
David Johnson disappointed everybody last season, through little fault of his own. A terrible O line and an offensive coordinator who seemed to be determined to put him position to fail and he still finished ninth in RB scoring. The offense should be better and he’ll catch a lot of balls, but taking him top six requires a small leap of faith.
Le’Veon Bell will have some fresh legs. There is some concern about how his ultra patient running style will mesh with the Jets ultra mediocre blockers. Adam Gase is a goofball but I doubt he wants to get fired again, so I think it’s safe to believe Bell won’t fall into a time share with Elijah McGuire.
Joe Mixon has all the qualities you want in a lead back and he showed last year he could be productive behind a poor line. His blockers are improved this year, even with the Jonah Williams injury, so I expect him to produce again. Not sure how the coaching change will affect him. I think Zac Taylor and old friend Brian Callahan will be an improvement over Marvin Lewis, but I’m not positive. The Bengals are the cheapest team in the league and the worst run outside of Washington. I’m not sure Taylor and Callahan will be prepared for exactly how bush league an operation it is they’re running under Mike Brown.
Nick Chubb is a monster and he will have a great season. Not worried about Kareem Hunt’s week 10 arrival. Cousin Nick will be such an integral part of the offense, they won’t tamper with him.
Dalvin Cook has burned you before and it’s really hard to trust him, but if he plays 14+ games, I can already tell he’s going to be a league tilter. The Vikes plan to run it more this season and Cook wasn’t so injury plagued in college.
Todd Gurley belongs at the top of this list, but unfortunately a prematurely arthritic knee has thrown his career into doubt. He was ineffective at times last year and he will certainly be managed carefully moving forward. I doubt I’ll own him.
James Conner did a stellar job filling in for Bell last year, though not quite as good as bitter Steeler fans would have you believe. People also chant like Moonies that the Steelers are a team that gives all their carries to one back. Why you have to go all the way back to the year before Bell got there to find two backs splitting carries fairly equally. Jaylen Samuels is a very talented and versatile player who had a great camp and I like him in round nine way more than Conner in round two.
Kerryon Johnson is a tremendously talented back who lacks a breakaway gear. Rugged workhorse in college, so don’t assume he’s injury prone based on last season.
Leonard Fournette hasn’t shown me enough to validate his draft position. I get that he faced stacked boxes the last two years, but there is always something wrong with him physically. I understand the value of opportunity and he’s a potential 300 carry back with a high third round sticker, but I’m picking better options around him.
Damien Williams has the widest possible range of outcomes. If he holds the starting job all year, he’s going to be on a bunch of league winners. The apparent untimely death of Carlos Hyde‘s modest skill set only entrenches Williams, but electric Darwin Thompson looms. Williams has never had more than 13 carries in a single game in his five year NFL career. He does, however, possess the skill set to perform very well in Andy Reid’s system.
Melvin Gordon figures to hold out well into the regular season, so he is dead to me in drafts unless he utterly free falls.
Devonta Freeman is a back you have to love, but his aggressive playing style and smallish frame have led to numerous injuries and concussions. I like the guy and hope he rebounds, but he won’t do it for my teams.
Aaron Jones is another uber talented guy who hasn’t put together a really great season yet. injuries and Mike McCarthy’s stupid bullshit have held him back. He appears to be in terrific shape this year. I’m buying in again.
Marlon Mack will take a hit due to Luck’s retirement. but perhaps not that severe. He was game script dependent with Luck and didn’t see much action in games until Andrew torched a defense to the ground. He may wind up getting more looks now in an offense that will need more balance.
Chris Carson is a former UDFA who fought off the preseason challenge of the higher pedigreed Rashaad Penny for the second year in a row. Carson forced 45 missed tackles last season which tied for the league lead and he comes with the MarsLineman Seal of Approval.
Philip Lindsay is all of our adopted son, so what can I tell you that you don’t know? He is dropping in ADP because outsiders see him losing carries to Royce Freeman (not to be confused with Russell Freeman, the lanky stamina-deprived OT from the 90’s), the point where he’s on the short end of the split, which is patently preposterous to anyone who has seen both guys in action. Lindsay is also getting it from the analytics crowd because his speed hitting the hole breaks some of their metrics. He will be on the majority of my teams and it’s not home cooking. I think he’ll have at least as many carries as last year and nearly twice as many catches.
David Montgomery was an Eagle Scout growing up and he seems to be prepared for any situation. He was a tackle breaking machine @ Iowa State and he has shown unexpectedly soft hands in camp. No breakaway gear, but the Bears love him.
Josh Jacobs has always looked the part of a feature back and he has been impressive in camp for the Raiders. Gruden and Mayock seem determined to make sure he succeeds, so expect him to get a big workload right away. The caveat here is they seem to want him to exceed 250 carries and it took him three years @ Bama to carry the ball that many times.
Derrick Henry came on late and won people a bunch of leagues. Unless his dismal first 12 games already kept his owners out of the playoffs. I don’t like the offense or the quarterback or that Dion Lewis will steal all his passing downs. Also not thrilled that he makes every running back he stands next to look like a high school kid, but he’s always nursing some issue with soft tissue.
Miles Sanders is another back who is well liked by my favorite Martian. He has had a stellar camp and has been a steady riser on draft boards. Jordan Howard is a team guy and I think a time share will happen quickly.
Mark Ingram seems to be in a good situation at first glance. Baltimore loves to run the ball, after all. Unfortunately, Ingram is going to have Lamar Jackson vulturing his red zone scores and Justice Hill taking some of his passing downs.
Tevin Coleman will probably not be on any of my teams. He seems like a terrific fit under his old OC, but I’m not sure Matt Breida isn’t just better and 70 picks cheaper.
Sony Michel and James White are going in the same range. I think White’s season was an outlier, but they’ve lost targets, so maybe he repeats. Michael has the chronic knee and now has Damien Harris in the mix. Michel’s usage patterns were actually fairly normal for Patriots standards. I would lean his way, but he only had seven receptions all season. The Pats say he’ll be more involved in the passing game this year. TL;DR: Who wants to root for Patriots?
Tarik Cohen‘s value took a hit when the Bears drafted David Montgomery. He got all the passing down work with Jordan Howard around and that could change with a three down back as the starter.
Austin Ekeler of Eaton, CO will get most of the carries with Gordon out, but he’s not suited to be a heavy load lead back, so Justin Jackson will get his looks, too. Ekeler is the guy to own, though.
Latavius Murray will slide into the Mark Ingram role in New Orleans. Not sure if he’ll have the stand alone value Ingram did, but he should see his share of work.
Duke Johnson‘s value rose when he was traded to Houston and it rose more with the sad news about Lamar Miller. The O line is still bad, but Johnson should flourish in PPR leagues.
Jaylen Samuels is a guy I will own a lot. Great hands and everyone calls him the most improved Steeler in camp this year. Stand alone value and look out if Conner gets hurt.
Derrius Guice has been a favorite of mine dating back to his days @ LSU. Last season was a lost year and he’s on a bad team slated to have some kind of time share with an aging star who will whine about a loss of touches. Let him slide a bit before commiting, but a legit feature back is buried here.
Kalen Ballage will crash into blockers with his strong body and poor instincts until Kenyan Drake is healthy enough to be underutilized again. UDFA Patrick Laird has outplayed Mark Walton and has a real chance of opening the season as the number 2 back.
Darrel Henderson and Tony Pollard shared the same backfield @ Memphis last season and now they each back up two of the biggest stars in the NFL. Interestingly, had Patrick Taylor Jr. decided to declare, they would have sent three guys from the same backfield into the NFL in the same draft. Taylor returned to school for the opportunity to be The Man this year. Henderson has turned out to be a shockingly bad scheme fit for the Rams to this point at least and Pollard, who was used more as a receiver in college, has seen his ADP rise and fall in relation to Zeke rumors all summer.
Darwin Thompson will be a league tilter if he takes over for Damien Williams. Short dude, but unbelievably yoked and dynamite in the open field. Fantastic stash play if your rosters are big enough to allow some patience.
Devin Singletary is the another rookie back I like a lot. Lots of old guys in his way, but ultimately they’re going to play the guy who gives them the best chance to win. Low center of gravity and great vision, plus underrated hands.
Alexander Mattison is a must handcuff if you draft Dalvin Cook and Justice Hill looks like he’ll be part of the Ravens backfield rotation right away.
Peyton Barber held off Ronald Jones again and seems like the guy to own in Tampa, unless owning none of their running backs is the wiser course of action. Jay Ajayi must be a real headache to have his phone still silent.